Five things: At the break

1. This looks familiar

So Joni Ortio keeps winning and the Flames keep starting him. No surprise, you roll with the hot goalie. And it’s difficult to think of a hotter goalie heading into last night’s game than the .958 Ortio was pitching in his four games this season.

Now, this has prompted a lot of people to start talk if, “What do you do with Ramo?” Which seems a bit premature. Because while no one is saying Ramo’s all that good, one must keep in mind that Ortio had played all of 13 career NHL games prior to last night, and carried a save percentage of .917. Is that good? Of course it is, but it’s also 13 games, and when he played nine last year he went .891; only four of his appearances featured save percentages that broke .900.

We essentially have no guarantee that either of the Flames goalie “prospects” (Ramo being 28 makes me disinclined to list him as such, but there you are) are any good at all. Ortio’s career AHL numbers don’t exactly dazzle — 174 goals allowed on 2,108 shots over parts of four seasons, and that’s a .917 save percentage — which is good but doesn’t really compare with, say, other hotshot goaltending prospects. So I’m not exactly ready to christen this guy the incumbent backup until just as soon as the team can find an escape pod into which it can shove Ramo.

Look, anyone is capable of five good games. The vilified Ramo went 4-0-0 in five appearances as recently as November, during which time he went .925 on 134 shots. This was against NHL talent, and certainly his pedigree in the KHL (roughly .920 hockey over four seasons) speaks to some amount of talent. And what about Jonas Hiller? Started the year .941 in seven appearances, went 4-2-1. Since then? .899 in 22 appearances (487 saves on 542 shots).

Again, I don’t think Ramo’s any good, but this is illustrative of the problems with judging goaltenders in general, especially over small samples.

It’s hard to be convinced that anyone the Flames currently employ to keep the pucks out can do so at better than league average, or anything close. I don’t understand the hurry to get Ortio up to the bigs.

2. Back to “winning” ways

Well, I do, actually. When Ortio has been in net this season, the Flames have won. That’s literally all it is: People see the team winning because he’s made a lot of saves in four games the Flames mostly had no business being in.

And once again all this winning covers up the fact that this team has deep problems. They’ve won their last four games, and in just one of them they broke 50 percent possession. That game (51 percent against the Sharks) was also the first time since Dec. 31 against the Oilers they were in the black in this regard. It was only the 10th time they’ve done it literally all year.

This is still a team that plays to get run over every night and the fact that they’re eking out wins in overtime tells you that, at best, they’re the Florida Panthers who made the playoffs a few years ago by playing to get to OT and the shootout. Hey, whatever happened to those Panthers? Oh they sucked for a few more years after that and ended up being a lottery-pick team, right. Or maybe they’re more like the Leafs of a few years ago who edged into the postseason, and hey gee whiz they almost beat the Bruins, before collapsing into the hilarious shambles you see today. Years of mediocre drafting thanks to mediocre draft spots sure do have the future looking bright in the Big Smoke, yessir.

Yeah but no, the Flames are totally different and doing things better than those other guys. Yup.

3. Making a decision

So let’s say the Flames keep winning, inexplicably, for a little while longer. It’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility that this team is at least within a point or three of a playoff spot as the trade deadline approaches; odds are they’re not going to be much farther back than six points or so, which is actually almost impossible to make up in that short a time frame but which seems like a surmountable deficit.

So the question for what the Flames actually do in the coming weeks is simple: Stand pat, add pieces, or begin a sell-off? I think the most likely scenario is that they stand pat simply because while they’re certainly not unhappy with the winning, this is a team in a rebuild after all and selling picks and prospects to add bodies for a likely futile (and detrimental) attempt at making the playoffs is probably a bridge too far for any smart manager.

For me, I think the smart move is selling off whatever useful veterans they have to hand, but you already knew that. Trade Glencross, trade Hiller, trade Jones, trade Hudler. If they have any amount of value and aren’t nailed down to long-term contracts, they ought to be gone. Hoard picks and prospects and hey, maybe even a young roster player or two. Hoard them greedily.

Of course, they won’t do that either, and that’s no real surprise. The most realistic thing that’s going to happen is standing pat, and of the options at hand it’s certainly not the least-agreeable. Which is a step in the right direction.

4. Recent injuries

What complicates that, though, is the fact that Curtis Glencross and Ladislav Smid are currently injured. Not that missing them is any great detriment to the team, but going without them gives the club a chance to get a closer look at some prospects for how they play at the NHL level.

It’s hard to say just how much good one would have to do as a means of supplanting these players in the mind of management, but at least they can start chipping away at the issue of much of the dead weight remaining on the roster if that’s their intention (as a bonus, the salary cap might go down next year if the Canadian dollar stays at its current, abhorrently low level).

Now, I obviously haven’t seen Tyler Wotherspoon play in the AHL this season, but having seen Ladislav Smid play plenty for the Flames over the last two years, I am of the opinion that Wotherspoon cannot possibly be worse. Smid is awful, full stop, and his continuing employment is baffling to some degree. The fact that he’s also signed for two more years(!!!) is a major concern and unless you can do something with that deal — buyout, stuff it in the AHL, trade with retained salary etc. — it’s hard to believe there’d be much of a market for him.

But if all these injuries do is get some kids some playing time, then I’m all for it.

5. A quick note

A few weeks ago when I provided an update on Mark Jankowski, and how his point production in recent weeks had been a little bit smoke-and-mirrors, I was asked for updates on some other Flames prospects in college hockey, with a special focus on Jon Gillies (who’s dropped off a little in recent weeks; .893 in his last four games). I now have two live viewings lined up for this weekend, so that’s the plan.

As always, hit me with anything you’d like to see a focus on, and I will try to provide as much detail for you on those topics as possible.

  • RedMan

    With all the clamoring about “Ortio has arrived trade Ramo”, does anyone remember “Granlund has arrived, there is no place for Backlund.” While I do think you need to trade Ramo, as he more than likely won’t be back next year, we need to quit jumping to conclusions 15 games in.
    – I think the Flames make minor moves going into the trade deadline. It basically says that we aren’t going for it, but the chance we do make the playoffs, we want to at least be a little competitive.

    • Burnward

      If the Flames are in a playoff spot by the end of February, they would probably be forced to keep Hiller.

      But if not, he would make the most sense to move because he’s probably worth the most at the deadline.

  • Burnward

    Sadly Smid still might be better then Engelland. Smid seems be better at getting in the way/blocking shots neither can do much with the puck. At least bottom pairing d-men should be a fixable area to upgrade. Just think what the 6.5 million Smid and Engelland make combined could buy in the free agent market for a d-man.

    • Parallex

      While I agree with the general sentiment the 6.5M they make is only an issue if the Flames are up against the cap (they aren’t even close) or the team has an internal budget cap below the salary cap (which in so far as we know isn’t the case).

      Really the Flames should be looking to upgrade the 2nd pairing. Do that without drawing from the same pairing in the process and you improve the defense every minute that Brodano aren’t on the ice (for which you need no improvement) by dropping one of the current 2nd pairing down to the third. That’s improving 58% of every game.

      • JumpJet

        I agree that upgrading the 2nd pairing would make this team much better than getting another 3rd pairing guy. My only concern with that would be is it possible to acquire a young 2nd pairing defenceman with the trade chips that Flames currently have?

        Sami Vatanen, John Klingberg, or maybe even Tyler Myers would be good guys to go after, but I’m sure the expected return for those guys would be huge.

        Instead, do you try to acquire a vet with an expiring contract? Johnny Boychuk, Mike Green, and Mark Methot are all UFAs this summer and aren’t ancient.

      • JumpJet

        The 6.5 might not mean much but there also is the opportunity cost of getting/playing Engelland over a Mark Fayne/Tom Gilbert type free agent or developing Wotherspoon at the NHL level.

      • everton fc

        Agree w/this post. the 3/4 2nd pairing is a soft spot. Russell and Wideman are a very good 5/6 pairing.

        I also think our 3rd line is soft. I like Byron, but he doesn’t score, nor does he get assists, nor can he finish. Is this a slump, or “who he is”? May be the latter. Raymond and Colborne play like 4th liners these days, and are not good enough to push guy like Jooris, off the 4th line. Colborne is soft for a bg guy, and does turn over the puck “cheaply”, as it was so poetically put above. He may be good in the dot, and is improving…

        I’d say the 3rd line is an area of opportunity. Wolf on the left, Ferland or Poirier on the right-side… I’d like to see that.

        • Danger

          Re: Colborne, obviously he’s no Jumbo Joe Thornton, which is disappointing because it feels like with his natural gifts of size and skill, he should be able to be more than he is now. Sadly for us, he is what he is so far, and maybe he’s never going to be the complete package, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a guy with some important and valuable skills.

          Firstly, he can win face-offs, which contributes to possession, which correlates with winning games. Not the most important contribution a player could make, but a positive one nonetheless. (And an area of weakness for the Flames in general.)

          Secondly, and most importantly, he is a shoot-out specialist. In itself that’s probably worth giving him a roster spot because of the number of standings points a guy like him can contribute. (Unless of course you’re trying to tank, in which case you should play Colborne as your shutdown centre against top competition, and never put him out there in the shootout.) From the purists’ perspective, it’s just one more reason to dislike the skills competition, but as long as the shootout is in the rules, it makes sense for a team to employ a guy who is a shootout specialist even if he is only a replacement-level player in regular play. (Not saying that’s what Colborne is, but it would still make sense to keep him around even if he was only replacement-level at regular play.)

  • redhot1

    A couple things –

    Stajan takes way too many dumb penalties. And he always complains about them to the refs

    JG Monahan Hudler looked great last night

    Byron doesn’t do anything except skate fast

    Colborne turns over possession quite cheaply

  • piscera.infada

    I typically enjoy your articles Lambert, but since you asked, I’d like to make one suggestion: can you write one article on positives from this Flames season (other than “Gaudreau is good, I told you, you’re stupid)? Or, are you of the opinion that there are no positives (outside of your readership being stupid–it’s the arrogant tone, nothing personal)?

    Regarding your article, I agree with your stance on Ortio, but I also think a lot of the “what to do with” question depends on Gillies. So, that said, do you think he turns pro this year? I seem to recall you being of the mind that he will from a few articles ago. This is a big deal, as ideally, you don’t want Gillies to be playing in the ECHL next year, Ortio has a one-way deal next year, and I don’t think you want a Gillies/Ortio tandem in Adirondak (or Stockton, or wherever) next year. Therefore, something’s got to give. If there’s a deal to be made for Ramo, I think you have to take it (remember, “asset management”), and if it turns out the only deal is for Hiller, perhaps you have to look there instead. Ortio’s contract structure is such that it makes a decision necessary if you’re in the “don’t want to lose something for nothing” group.

    Therefore, I’ve come around a little bit on trading one of the goalies. I think Ramo is the guy you trade–assuming deals are present for both. Either way, I can’t see an Ortio-Hiller/Ramo tandem being significantly worse than the Hiller-Ramo tandem this year. If you want to keep developing Ortio, it may be the smart move to give him the ball at the NHL level next year and see what he actually has over a prolonged period.

    On your third point, I agree, they’ll probably stand pat. They may make a few trades (maybe Glencross, provided he’ll waive his NMC, and he’s healthy), but I still firmly believe you keep Hudler with the potential of extending him when his contracts due (provided you can get good dollar value). Teams that win the cup always have that wiley veteran that knows how to play in the playoffs (Hossa, Stoll, Williams). I do think Hudler is “that guy” for the Flames. If they ever want to truly compete down the road (and I assume that’s the goal here), he could be a very valuable piece.

    I’m not saying you break the bank for him, but if you can get value there, and he wants to be here, I think you do it. You don’t cut bait simply because a guy isn’t of the right age. Who else do the Flames have with deep playoff experience? Gio doesn’t have any. Bollig/Englland? Please. Wideman? I think he’s the better trade deadline trade bait–next year, mind you.

    Finally, I’m very intrigued to hear about Gillies from someone who can actually watch him live. I feel goalies need to be seen live, it’s incredibly difficult to get an accurate feel for them through statistics, or even on TV. So thanks for that.

  • I’m all for trading Hiller or Ramo, GlenX, Jones, and Smid (or please dear god somehow get rid of Engelland), but I really do think keep Hudler around for a while now would be nice. I may be wrong about this, but I think he’s got another year on his contract after this one, so I’d say keep him around for at least another season, maybe ship him off next year at the deadline depending on what’s going on.

    Of course we are rebuilding, and we don’t want to get too excited and pull a Panthers/Leafs/Avs, but I think Huds will help facilitate the rebuild as he seems to be a great mentor for the team. I really do think we can be a powerhouse within the next 5 years, but our young guns still need some solid vets around like Huds IMO.

    Or you know, somehow convince Edmonton to give their first round round pick for a bunch of these guys. That seems reasonable, right? RIGHT?

  • ssamze

    The question with selling all the vets is will the return be significantly better than the risk of hindered development? I’ll be okay to sell them for good return (1st or 2nd rounder), but for anything lower i rather have them to keep the development going and not exchange for few lottery tickets.

    For me at least, rebuild is also about development and not just assest accumulation. Who cares if we make playoff this year because of statistic fluke and not the next. As long as we see continuos growth of our players and as a team, and an entertaining season, im fine with it.

  • PrairieStew

    1. Ortio should finish the season in the AHL – and hopefully get significant playoff experience. He should then caddy for either Hiller or Ramo next year while Gilles takes over on the farm.

    2. Goaltending that has been better than last year ( and the 2 previous if we are honest) plus league leading shot blocking keeps them in games that by the stat sheet they don’t belong in. Let’s be honest – 25 minutes a night this is an elite team, 20 minutes a night below average, and 15 minutes abysmal.

    3. Disagree on Hudler. Glencross likely won’t go if they are anywhere close. Jones won’t get you much unless you keep salary – but if you can somehow improve the 3rd pairing for next year with a deal please do it.

    4. Agreed- those injuries not hurting the team in any way other than in potential trade value.

    5. Keep the college info coming – can you ascertain Gilles intentions ?

  • KiLLKiND

    Great article any more news about Janko from what I can tell he is the highest scoring non fourth year on Providence and has only played 19 games. While that sounds great you did say he piles on points while facing weak teams I was just wondering if you’ve seen him play recently and how he looked

  • Colorado Flames

    Ryan, just want to point out a couple things. You simply never have anything to say about what is right about the Flames, any acknowledgements are painted with skepticism & doubt. Every criticism of what the Flames do is hi lighted with convenient extreme examples of the Leafs & Panthers. I have reread your 2nd point several times trying to figure out how it became one of your 5 things> I don’t understand the point. Could you please explain. Is your point that teams shouldn’t win let alone continue to win? Is it just the Flames that should not win let alone continue to win? Is it all teams shouldn’t win & definitely not go on any winning streak? Should San Jose have lost last night? Should the Kings start to sell there players so they can continue losing & get higher odds in the draft coming up? What is your point? If it’s just you feel the Flames suck, have no future & shouldn’t be winning, please explain using valid criteria that someone who uses statistical analyses in his critique should surely be able support on your point of view. It’s interesting your view is so opposite of Hockey panels & other teams executives when discussing the Flames. They seem to think the Flames are for real.

    Last point & I apologize for the length here, but I am trying to understand your 3rd point once again after rereading it a few times. As of the Allstar break the Flames sit in one of the wildcard playoff positions. Surely something in the stats world has to say something positive about this accomplishment after 47 or 48 games. Flames find themselves in a real unusual situation of achieving in the 2nd year of a rebuild. Can you explain that without throwing out your convenient extreme exhibits of the Panthers & Leafs. So your 3rd point is that it is foolish to build off of success, rather make decisions to promote failure. I have never heard of this strategy in any business & the NHL is a pretty big business. I would be interested if you or any of the writers from Flames Nation that advocates this as a statistical site & I assume supports your features by the mere fact you post weekly kindly explain the premises of this being one of the 5 things? I am an old time hockey fan & would like to understand the point of view of the growing statistical movement mindset. I just find your 5 Things are quite confusing. Ok sorry for the length of this.

  • Matty Franchise Jr

    Thanks for the reality check on Ortio, Lambs. I’d still trade Hiller before Ramo, though. We’re not a Cup contender this year or next anyway.

  • Matty Franchise Jr

    Apparently the following have been sent down to Adirondack…Wotherspoon, Granlund & Ortio.

    I suspect the Flames are working on a number of transactions and these guys could be back up quickly. In my view they are all NHL ready…yes yes Granlund needs to work on face-offs if the Flames chose to continue and develop him as a Centre.

    • mattyc

      I still think Granlund’s defensive work isn’t NHL level. He needs some more seasoning to get used to the pro size and strength to win the puck battles.

      Honestly, IMO Granlund makes more defensive mistakes than Baertschi did, in a more important defensive role (as a centre vs. winger).

      • Matty Franchise Jr

        http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html?mansit=3&scoresit=8&homeawaysit=1&shotattsit=&names=baertschi,0granlund,0backlund,0monahan,0gaudreau&team=CGY&pos=1&start1=2014-10-01&xaxis=52&yaxis=30&caxis=90&saxis=50&mintoi=0&panel=1&usedaterange=0&start0=20132014&end0=20142015&end1=2015-01-22&splitseasons=0

        The link will show that over the last 2 seasons, at 5v5, Sven is a slightly better possession player than Granny, but quite a bit less lucky with his shooting %. Both have played 40 games, so a pretty small sample size.

        Money, Mickis, and Johnny Hockey are in there too, for perspective.

        • mattyc

          Yeah – I’m not sure I understand the Sven treatment. There’s got to be something behind the scenes we don’t know about…

          There’s a few players in that situation. I’m not sure why they utilize Stajan as a 4th line role instead of leveraging his defensive skills.

          I would think between Monahan, Backlund and Stajan you have 3 good to excellent defensive players, and should be able to give one or two of them the high ground a bit.

          Personally I’d keep Monahan with Hudler/Gaudreau, and then Backlund and Stajan could take the heavies with a combination of Jones, Glencross, Raymond, Colborne.

        • BurningSensation

          Love your “hockey commentary” “Sven is a slightly better possession player than Granny, but quite a bit less lucky with his shooting percentage.” What this means is that Sven doesn’t have as many points. Luck can describe a game but not half a season. Sven’s value is still there but he’s being overtaken by others in the organization who are progressing at a higher rate. If Sven doesn’t get it together soon, I don’t like his chances with the Flames.

          • mattyc

            From a purely qualitative point of view, I’m not sure Granlund is a better player than Baertschi right now. Baertschi has better offensive tools imo, and doesn’t make any more defensive errors than a lot of the other young guys (Monahan notwithstanding, he’s super-human).

            If you want to talk points, Baertschi has 0.42p/game (67 games) compared to Granlund 0.40p/game (over games), so Baertschi has put up slightly more points over a longer period of time (arguably also when the team was worse).

            re: Luck can describe a game but not half a season, I point you to Ville Leino, Devon Setoguchi, Jon Cheechoo, Fernando Pisani, …

          • BurningSensation

            I don’t follow your reasoning. Luck happens on a “lucky” goal. You don’t have a lucky season or three lucky seasons. Lots of factors in why some guys can score 50 goals in a year and never get close to those numbers again but luck isn’t one of them. As far as comparing Sven to other prospects, it’s clear that the organization has doubts about Sven and need him to demonstrate consistency in his game. I’d bring up Ferland long before Sven.

          • mattyc

            Luck has been demonstrated many times in many statistical and observational ways, I’m not going to rehash them all. I can think of hundreds of times where goals go in in a non-repeatable way, or one where it didn’t matter if it was Pat Kane or Lance Bouma. Sometimes you get the bounces, sometimes you don’t. Sometimes you can get a long run of good bounces, sometimes the opposite. That’s hockey, that’s life.

          • Burnward

            Sure.

            But if luck is random and unrepeatable, how is it quantifiable for predictive purposes? Why do we pretend there is a normal amount of luck and the Flames have just gotten more of it?

            You can generate more chances for unintended outcomes through hard work and effort, thus giving you a chance at more PDO changing events no?

            That’s how I look at it.

          • mattyc

            Shot quality exists, but it has limits. Luck is by definition random, which means over an infinitely large sample, it evens out. The thing is though, we never get enough coin flips for everyone’s luck to even out.

            See this link on the limits of PDO link

  • Matty Franchise Jr

    Another Flames are a bad team and only win by luck or good goal tending and will never be better article by Lambert. He must look at spreadsheets all day and night and never even watched the Flames play this year. Same old crap!

  • Colorado Flames

    Regarding your comment on selling off the vets for picks and prospects:

    I think you are forgetting the Flames are barely above the cap floor. Trading any of these vets with the larger contracts on the team puts them below the cap floor. In order to do this you would have to pick up salary via some other roster move and I don’t see that happening.

    If there is a trade that can be made for Ramo I say make it so you get something for him. Ortio is on a one way deal next year and Ramo is UFA. Since Capgeek went offline I’m not sure how far above the cap floor they are but they are barely above it so to compensate for losing his $2.5 mil they would have to retain salary, trade would have to involve a player under NHL contract, or another trade would have to be made. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Flames pick up a bad contract via trade and be compensated with a high draft pick like they did when they traded Ales Kotalik and his bad contract with Regher and a 2nd round pick to Buffalo for Butler and Byron.

  • Incoming TLDR
    I see what Ryan is trying to say and it’s a valid point. This team is where they are because they’ve caught the better side of the bounces. Just like Colorado did last year. When, however, it comes down to our underlying numbers it is important to understand that this team still does not carry the talent to drive possession to compete with playoff teams. Given our possession is below 50% on most nights. In order to be a competitive playoff team as proven by the teams that are in the playoffs consistently we need those possession numbers to rise over 50%. Only way to do this is to acquire or draft players who are capable of it. Ryan asserts we should lose to do that. I disagree.

    Where I disagree with Lambert is in the philosophy on the overall direction the Flames are going with their albeit luck-driven success. If I understand him correctly he asserts the Flames should deliberately allow the team to be bad to acquire a top 5 pick and especially bad this year given that the McDshow is available, while I agree McDavid is a generational talent and surely he could change the course of a team for the better. In sports i personally don’t think you can bank all your hopes and dreams on a single kid knowing full well that we can’t predict if he’ll be in car accident tomorrow or break his wrist and never be the same player again. This is the same concept statistically that Ryan uses as his evidence for why the Flames should suck, pure luck. Teaching your team to lose and not supporting them from above sends the wrong message in my opinion. It says we don’t believe in you, right now you’re lucky but won’t be forever so we’re gonna suck anyhow and that’s okay. Why bother supporting you guys and helping you learn to win until we get that super star player out of the draft. I as a former athlete myself wouldn’t want to play for anyone like that. The Oilers are a good example of this. No support for their kids at all and 8 years later they’re still floundering around without a direction.

    I believe the Flames should continue to build their “winning mentality and culture” around the mindset that even though they’re rebuilding their expectation is to make the playoffs. Continue to do diligence at the draft. This will only serve to strengthen the mindsets of their youth and aid development in their (ahl) system. Just have to look at what this has done for Monahan and how he has developed as a player in only 2 years and for me it’s right move. If by some unfortunate stroke of PDO we hit a bad roll and lose 10 in a row then so be it. However, if we don’t our youth dont have any excuses for doing so. This team is just a few good moves away from changing their fortunes. All it takes is one good trade for a decent possession player an upgrade to our 3rd defensive pairing (which is basically any other defensive player in the league). And a few of our farm team players continued development and this team isn’t as far as off as everybody thinks.

    So long as they don’t give up the future in doing this.

    • BurningSensation

      Good third paragraph. One thing not really covered is the fact that this team seems to be cohesive and never gives up. Key upgrades which take time will improve the stats. But dumping all your vets may blow the chemistry which is one of the reasons they have the 3rd period results they do. So selective moves are critical. However no-one can disagree that the 3rd pairing is bad!!

  • BurningSensation

    The right guy to move out is Hiller. He brings more back in trade, is older (and thus less helpfull for the rebuild), and isn’t markedly superior to Ramo who can be re-signed on the cheap to mind the pipes until Ortio or Gilles kick him to the curb.

  • BurningSensation

    Rex Libris raised an interesting thought experiment over at Lowetide;

    —> Edmonton: Cgy’s 2nd

    —> Cgy: Petry-D

    If the deal is conditional on Petry signing an extension for Edm to get that pick, I’d do it in a heartbeat. Petry is not a #1 guy (what he’s being used as in Edm), but he is a perfect fit for our 2nd D unit, is the right age, skillset, etc., and it would plug one of the gaping holes on the team.

    • RedMan

      I’d do it…

      I’ve been saying that lately but get trashed soundly for doing so. He could play second paring, bumping wideman to third pairing, and wideman can play with wotherspoon on the 3rd pairing, with Engelend being the 7th.

      In fact, I would trade raffe diaz and a 2nd (conditional on him signing). moves a defender out of the way, gives us a better number 4 (Petry) and a better #5 (wideman)

      Gio & Brodie, Russell & Petry, Wideman & Wotherspoon/Engeland/Smid

    • Parallex

      Not interested in trading draft picks… better idea Hiller for Petry and a conditional pick (say… their second rounder conditional on Petry signung an extension or the Flames making the WC final). They get a real starting goalie for next year we get a dependable D-man (or a highish pick). Fair deal.

    • ChinookArchYYC

      I’d be interested in Petry, but not at that price. He’s not under contract and Edmonton should not recieved a higher price for Calgary’s ability to sign him. I’d go as high as a 3rd though, especially given that outside the first 2 rounds this years draft is not considered deep.

      You’d have to think Trelliving will be talking to him when he becomes a UFA. Iihf he gets there.

  • MWflames

    Guys like Lambert won’t agree with this, but here’s the deal:

    Its trade deadline day. Flames are in 8th spot (looking at their schedule this is reasonable). They’re battling every game as if its playoffs. And let’s be honest they’ve done that for 4 out of 5 games all year long: they’ve worked their asses off all year long to be here fighting for a playoff spot. And then BT goes and ships off Hiller, glencross and hudler. You know because “Lambert’s Tank Thereom”. THIS is how you completely CRUSH your team. Whether youre a remaining vet or a “part of the future” peice, you are devasted. And quite honestly you no longer have any trust for your management. Why would continue to bust you ass? Why would continue to block shots? You don’t thats the answer. I think you get the point… The off season is way more appropriate for those types of moves assuming their in a playoff spot. The fact that anybody would consider let alone endorse selling the team while legitimately fighting for a playoff spot drives me nuts.

  • Scary Gary

    Lambert no one is saying Ortio should be given the starting job and that we should trade both Hiller and Ramo because he’s our saviour. A lot of us are suggesting something I thought you’d agree with (and you eventually do; third thing) in that we should trade Hiller or Ramo for some prospects (if we’re out of it at before the trade deadline), let Ortio play part time with one of the other remaining goalies and let him get some more NHL experience. You also go on to say Wotherspoon with his 14 NHL games (Ortio has 14 as well) is an improvement over Smid, talk about a sample size contradiction. You then go on to say Hiller should be traded and don’t suggest a replacement for him…which would make Orio the de facto backup.

  • Matty Franchise Jr

    Luck, luck, luck.

    Someone who didn’t fail stats in Uni should probably verify this statements.

    Most things happen at a very regular and predictable rate, over long periods of time, say an NHL career. Goalies let in about 9% of the shots they face. This means that about 9% of shots on net by any given player over a long period of time will be goals. If over a short period of time, say 1 season or less, a shooter pots only 5% of his shots on net, it can be suggested that he is unlucky. If he is a career 5% shooter, then he just sucks by NHL standards, but it takes more than half a season worth of games to tell if its Luck or Suck.

    What can be said about a player over the first half season or so is that if he is under about 9%, he is probably unlucky, but maybe he sucks.

    Flip it all around for the save % side of things for skaters defensive abilities.

    If a player has a low PDO (sub 100) because of a low SH% (sub 9), but is above 50% Corsi or Fenwick, then he is probably unlucky and bound to be better over the long term because his SV% should mostly stay at 91 (long term) and his SH% will likely bounce back to average/normal levels (9) for an NHL quality player.