Flames Trade Deadline 2015: The Market

The trade deadline on Monday. Everyone expects trade activity to pick up, particularly amongst the teams that fancy themselves in the playoffs. Calgary? Still on the proverbial playoff bubble, but they’re also still a team with some expiring assets that can be flipped for future assets.

Here’s how the market stands as of Saturday morning.

GOALIES

The Flames have Karri Ramo as a pending unrestricted free agent. He’s been the back-up to Jonas Hiller for most of the season.

  • Buffalo sent Jhonas Enroth to Dallas for Anders Lindback and a third round pick.
    Enroth is younger than Ramo and has played slightly more NHL games with similar numbers, but Ramo’s numbers this season are so much better than Enroth’s it’s not even funny. Functionally, Ramo is a league-average goalie and Enroth is below-average. The Flames would need to get a goalie back in a Ramo deal. Based on this trade, a goalie and a third round pick would be doable.

DEFENSE

The Flames have Raphael Diaz would is on an expiring contract, though he’s been a seventh defender most of the season and only has three points with Calgary.

  • Philadelphia sent Kimmo Timonen to Chicago for a second round pick (and a conditional pick).
  • Carolina sent Ondrej Sekera to Los Angeles for a first round pick and Roland McKeown.
  • Carolina sent Tim Gleason to Washington for a fourth round pick and Jack Hillen.
    There’s no clearly set market value for a third-pairing defender right now, which is what Diaz fundamentally is. He’s 29 and he’s limited, but has offensive upside and value to a team trying to fix their power-play. I could see Calgary getting a sixth round pick, perhaps, if a buyer was particularly motivated. I’m not sure what else on Calgary’s blueline has trade value that they would be willing to part with – everyone either has contracts that are too rich to really move, or they are players the team doesn’t want to move. (Although, if a team wanted Wideman, I’m sure the Flames would be interested…)

FORWARDS

The main tradeable asset up front is Curtis Glencross. A lot of forwards have been moved lately, so here’s the gist of what’s gone on.

  • New Jersey sent Jaromir Jagr to Florida for a second round pick (and a conditional pick).
  • Toronto sent Daniel Winnik to Pittsburgh for a second round pick, a fourth round pick and Zach Sill.
  • Carolina sent Jiri Tlusty to Winnipeg for a third round pick (and a conditional pick).
  • Florida sent Sean Bergenheim (and a late pick) to Minnesota for a third round pick.
  • Florida sent Thomas Fleischmann to Anaheim for a third round pick and Dany Heatley.
    Based on these trades involving these players, here’s what we know: throw out Jagr, he’s a special case and scores more often than anybody else on this list, including Glencross. And admittedly, the Winnik deal seems like overpayment, but he’s younger and arguably has room to grow. Tlusty, Glencross, Fleischmann and Bergenheim are all in a similar wheelhouse in terms of age, NHL experience and NHL points productivity. There are obviously some wrinkles here and there that make each player different, but the gist of it is that these four guys are all more or less the same in terms of market value. In other words, the going rate for Glencross is expected to be a third round pick – and maybe a conditional pick or minor prospect to sweeten the pot if Treliving can get two teams jousting over him. 

SUM IT UP

At this juncture, it might not be worth trying to move Raphael Diaz because the return – a late, late pick – might not be worth the hassle. However, if the team sold off both of Karri Ramo and Curtis Glencross, they could garner a pair of additional third round picks, if not slightly more than that.

    • ChinookArchYYC

      This won’t be popular. Giordano is out and his value to Calgary where winning is concerned is very high. It’s time to cash in our chips and look to improve the team for next year and many years to come.

      The ride was fun, but it’s time to think about the long term future. Trade Glencross at a minimum and (pipe dream) unload the deadweight (Bollig and Engelland), who are not helping this team to win today and won’t tomorrow.

    • Bean-counting cowboy

      No argument here. I’ve thought the same thing since Gio went down. They were push and shove to make it with Gio in the line-up… chances very slim now.

      People are talking about trading for D-men. I say sure if they’re young and have a bit of term (or the cost is low). But demand for D is sky high right now.

      But if BT decides this is not the year… why not sell D? Wideman at 1/2 would fetch a decent return based on his counting stats.

      The team would not like the message being sent from management… but managers have to make hard decisions

    • everton fc

      Cant agree with you. We are tied with LA, they have 1 game in hand but we hold the tie breaker. Vanc Lack got shellacked & not looking like Miller time & they have some serious injuries on their blue line Bieska & Edler. Last night our team worked hard but they need help & I value the message & the push for the playoffs at this point way more than stopping, turning off the car & walking home. Our 3 best dmen are getting whacked minutes & this has to change. Let’s use a bit of our profits to stay in this game till the end. There are some UFA targets in Green & Petry & maybe Mihalek if he’s healthy. I would look at Polak or Coburn/Schenn to see what the price tags are. A team like Washington I think you can use Diaz & GlenX + a 3rd & a conditional pick if we resign Green to pry him out. What do we forgoe, a 6th rounder?, a 2nd rounder & some B prospect & a 3rd of our own for a top 4 Dman that could help us make the playoffs & a player that could fit in our future if we can get him resigned to a reasonable contract.
      The actual guy I would target is Petry. It sucks he’s with the Oilers but how could they turn down a Granlund for Petry offer? I have watched Granlund this last while & he is playing OK but jeez, telling me with Monahan/Bennett/Backlund/Jooris/Shore we can’t afford to part with Granlund? Get Petry, he can play 18-20 minutes with Brodie until comes back & if we can get him resigned, why not. Sure gives us a lot of options & a pretty decent D group with Gio/Brodie/Russell/Wideman/Petry/Tspoon/Engellend.

      Bottom line, I don’t like the message by quitting now. We all know the difference between the important pieces that are untouchable & some of our depth players that are just nice to have in case they magically become something but ultimately won’t even get a whiff in the big leagues.

      • everton fc

        I agree with a lot of this, except Shore is unproven. Granlund may prove better than Shore. He is now.

        And I’m beginning to see Ramo as the one you keep. Hiller has the most value of any player we have. We’d have to get a goalie back (i.e. Peters in Washington – that level) but we’d certainly be able to get a d-man of some quality or a prospect.

        3rd round picks don’t excite this fan. Next year’s draft isn’t that deep to be that excited about 3rd round picks (we should draft Ryan Pilon from Brandon, though. I like his game and he won’t go in the first two rounds.)

        Also, I think we are not only still in this playoff race, but wth an addition here and there, we’d be in a very good position to push upward. The Kings have done their deals. The Nucks and Sharks seem awful shaky. The Wild could implode. It’s a crap-shoot. We need to stay in this – why would you throw in the towel on a playoff run??

        I still think about Kessel here. Sorry about that. I know it’s a dream. If Florida gets him, the Bruins should be might worried about their playoff spot, as the Panthers are doing some interesting things…

    • prendrefeu

      I’m surprised and disappointed by the defeatism on this on board. The flames lose a couple games and everyone is ready to throw in the towel. The Flames organization should be doing whatever they can to make the playoffs this year. Nothing would be better for the development of the “rebuild” than playoff experience.

      The “hey, we made it this far. Let’s start thinking about next year” attitude is pathetic. Winners don’t think like that.

      • Bean-counting cowboy

        So by your statement “the Flames should be doing whatever they can to make the playoffs this year” I assume that includes trading draft picks and young talent? I can’t support that logic.

        • prendrefeu

          I don’t think Cold Hard Truth was implying that explicitly, however I do agree with CHT’s points:

          -lots of defeatism here on FN from the writers (all season long) and fans (after Gio got injured)
          -I believe the Flames org could, ideally, make a small trade or two before the deadline without sacrificing the future and still continue the run for a potential playoff birth.

        • everton fc

          I don’t think he means trading Gaudreau or Monahan or Bennett & our 1st for Yandle. Agree, do nothing before any of those guys are even considered to being put in play. We can improve this team by using the things we have excess. We have cap space but that probably won’t come into play until the Draft. We have got redundant youth that are no longer going to benefit by staying in the AHL & never getting call ups. We have Reinhart, Arnold, Hanowski, Agostino, & even Baert who are all RFA’s & will be subject to waivers. Use them, use some of our centre depth like Granlund, if GlenX can’t be used, flip the 2nd we get for him with the above package & dangle some 2016 conditional picks if we resign. For crying out loud, do a measured push for a UFA top 4 dman like Petry or Green. Either one of those guys make us better next year should we get them resigned. Especially when expectations are going to be much higher & should be. We have no shelves stocked with young Dmen bursting to challenge for a 3-4 spot on the team. This isn’t selling out on the rebuild, its getting pieces together that will allow us to compete as soon as possible. After what we have seen this year, don’t you agree anything is possible. This is like driving across the country Griswold style to go to Disney Land & turn around when you get 60 miles away because you get a flat tire.

          • prendrefeu

            This is like driving across the country Griswold style to go to Disney Land & turn around when you get 60 miles away because you get a flat tire.

            Except that it’s more like the rear axel came off, the bloke in the passenger seat’s dead, and the engine’s on fire.

            My thinking is this: don’t make any moves that you wouldn’t have made if Giordano was healthy. Don’t toss three bags of gold and a pound of flesh down for Michalek, don’t trade everybody for picks. Stay. The. Course.

            • Rockmorton65

              The situation is nowhere near that dire. For all the complaints about our defense, in the last three games we’ve only given up three goals. I mean, good grief, without Gio, we only gave up one goal. And that’s with Engelland on the top pairing! Any defensive shortcomings on this team can be addressed in the off-season. All we need to do is upgrade our middle pairing and get some skilled youth in the system. Green, Petry, Sekera and others will all be available in free agency. If we can convince one of them to come here, we have solved our 3/4 problem. And that’s not taking into account what we could acquire through trade. As has been said countless times here there’s no point in giving up even semi-valuable pieces for players that we can get in the off-season.

              If Gio is out for a while we patch up the D with what we have or acquire a low rent filler. The idea that we’re going to get a 3/4 guy for peanuts is well, silly.

            • piscera.infada

              I mean, good grief, without Gio, we only gave up one goal. And that’s with Engelland on the top pairing!

              Engelland wasn’t on the top-pairing, my friend. He was there in morning skate. Engelland played the second-least amount of minutes last night of any Flames defenseman (and right around his season average TOI). The only defenseman with less? Cory Potter. He may have gotten some time with Brodie, but like I said yesterday afternoon, they were always going to have a top-3 rotation, and the bottom-3 would just mix in periodically.

              Frankly, I think Wotherspoon plays against Philly, plays well, and keeps playing until Gio returns, and then starts next season on the bottom pairing.

              I also think that next year, we may see Bollig as the 13th forward, and then maybe even relegated to the AHL (a la McGratton). It seems like Hartley has no time for him.

      • Bean-counting cowboy

        I’m not saying you tell the players to start losing. The message doesn’t change from the coach or management for that matter.

        Look… we were not expected to be where we are in the standings. The analytics don’t support the current record and if you even out the OT/shootout record with LA – we’re a lot farther from the play-off bubble. If we had only five 3rd period comeback win vs. 10 where would we be? Where would we be without 4 multiple goal comebacks. The breaks have gone our way, but good managers do not allow themselves to be deceived.

        In Jim Collin’s book “Good to Great” he describes the importance of confronting the brutal facts or your situation. Although the book deals with successful fortune 500 companies, the principle can apply to any organization. The idea can be summarized as follows:

        “All good-to-great companies began the process of finding a path to greatness by confronting the brutal facts of their current reality. When a company starts with an honest and diligent effort to determine the truth of its situation, the right decisions often become self-evident. Good decisions are impossible without an honest confrontation of the brutal facts.”

        The brutal facts suggest we cannot compete without Gio – check Vollman’s usage chart (we are on the bubble even with him with an inflated record)

        If Gio is not out long term… I’m with ya. Did you watch the Isles game though… brutal. Let’s not miss a golden opportunity to sell off aging assets at sky high prices, just to find ourselves giving away assets for a short term fix which in all likelihood leaves us on the outside looking in anyways.

    • Bean-counting cowboy

      Not so sure it is “quitting” by moving some vets at the deadline but the Flames need to be realistic where they are at this time in the rebuild. They have made great strides this year but the rebuild is a 2 to 3 year process so the goal is really 2017. Stock the shelves with good young talent with the goal to peak in a few years. With the current talent, the Flames will remain competitive while working their roster towards the ultimate goal.

    • Rockmorton65

      My concern is that management will be paralyzed; unable to set a direction. The unknown(at least by us) on Gio (interesting that he took part in the pregame maybe not as bad as we think, maybe just a good poker face) may cause this to happen. If it is clear we are in the playoff hunt(and logistically we are) but without Gio it might be on a prayer; then we need to set a clear path. The next few days could tell a lot about how management plans on playing out the season and the future. While I have no real problem with BT I sometimes wonder if he is Mr Dihters or that he must get the BB okay and misses out. Thinking back to Leddy and or Boychuk now was the price to high; look where the Isles are; a legitimate contender to come out of the east.

    • everton fc

      Treliving has said it himself numerous times: the Flames are still in the “asset acquisition” stage.

      Is the desired end result to make the playoffs ala the Flames from 1990 on? Or to build a perennial contender? Look, you don’t stop trying to win, but you have to think strategically. Losing assets like Glencross for nothing in year two of a rebuild is poor management, plain and simple.

      The facts are that the Flames do not currently have enough young assets to build a contender. Hence you make the strategic choice over the ‘feel good’ choice while still pushing for the playoffs.

      As for the person who commented that 3rd round picks don’t excite him (vs I guess, zero assets when the player walks for nothing in the summer ), what round was Gaudreau selected in? Picks and prospects are the very definition of “asset acquisition” during a rebuild.

      It seems a lot like 2004-itis around here lately: “The Flames are beating all the analytics, we must be awesome and special, to hell with the rebuild, the Cup is ours!” Why is it so wrong when Leafs fans think that way, but not when Flames fans do it?

      We have plenty of vets still. Don’t move them all, but move a few (especially those that are gone anyways) for as much as possible to gain more assets for the rebuild. Keep trying to make the playoffs. Repeat next year.

      I don’t want another Cinderella run in ten years; I want a perennial contender in five years.