The Playoff Chase – April 8 2015

Every Western Conference team has two games left. Calgary can clinch a playoff spot as early as tomorrow. Here’s a quick and dirty glance at the race as it stands this afternoon.

THE TABLE

GP ROW Pts GR Pot
Pts
Can
CGY
Catch?
Can
Catch
CGY?
Remaining Opponents
Ducks 80 42 107 2 111 No N/A DAL, ARI
Blues 80 40 105 2 109 No N/A CHI, MIN
Predators 80 41 104 2 108 No N/A MIN, DAL
Blackhawks 80 39 102 2 106 No N/A STL, COL
Wild 80 41 98 2 102 No N/A NSH, STL
Canucks 80 40 97 2 101 Yes N/A ARI, EDM
Jets 80 35 96 2 100 Yes N/A COL, CGY
FLAMES 80 40 95 2 99 N/A N/A LA, WPG
Kings 80 37 93 2 97 N/A Yes CGY, SJ
Stars 80 35 88 2 92 N/A No ANA, NSH
Sharks 80 35 87 2 91 N/A No EDM, LA
Avalanche 80 28 86 2 90 N/A No WPG, CHI
Oilers 80 19 61 2 65 N/A No SJ, VAN
Coyotes 80 19 56 3 60 N/A No VAN, ANA

Calgary’s magic number is 1.0 on Los Angeles and 2.5 on Winnipeg.

SCENARIOS

  • How Can Calgary Catch Minnesota? A combination of seven points gained by Calgary AND lost by Minnesota. This relies upon Minnesota losing at least once.
  • How Can Calgary Catch Vancouver? A combination of six points gained by Calgary AND lost by Vancouver. Like Minnesota, this relies upon Vancouver losing at least once.
  • How Can Calgary Catch Winnipeg? A combination of five points gained by Calgary AND lost by Winnipeg. Like the others, this depends on Winnipeg losing, but unlike the others, Calgary controls their own destiny largely. If they beat Winnipeg and get something out of their game with Los Angeles, they can catch (and pass) Winnipeg.
  • How Can Calgary “Catch” Los Angeles? A win of any kind against Los Angeles or Winnipeg, or any combination of two points gained by Calgary OR lost by Los Angeles. Unlike the teams above, this path does not involve the Flames hoping another team does poorly as a necessity.

Basically, Calgary just needs A SINGLE WIN to clinch, and depending on what happens they could leap-frog some teams above with some help. It’s not probable or likely, but at this point, the entire season hasn’t been.

    • Könniek

      Catching Winnipeg doesn’t really matter, does it? It’s not like Winnipeg get the final pacific division spot. As long as we beat LA, it shouldn’t really matter, right?

    • Könniek

      Just a note on your “catch Minnesota” scenario, though it doesn’t actually matter, given that it’s impossible for the Flames to make the playoffs outside of the top three pacific teams. The Flames are three points back of Minnesota with two games each to play, which means Minnesota can earn at most one point for us to catch them. Which requires them to lose BOTH games, at least one in regulation – Not “at least one.”