Mark Giordano: The New Deal

FDR

Calgary Flames General Manager Brad Treliving says the team’s number one priority this summer is securing a contract extension for captain Mark Giordano. Turning 32 in October, Giordano is Calgary’s best player and has entered the very top tier of defencemen in this league. But what truly is fair when it comes to Gio’s next contract? While it’s not FDR’s nation shaping plan during the Great Depression, The New Deal for the captain is as significant a negotiation the Flames have had in quite some time.

Because Giordano has taken such an odd career path, this contract negotiation is similarly strange. A late bloomer to begin with, Giordano has enjoyed his two best seasons by far at the ages of 30 and 31. Because of that, the Flames are likely approaching a new deal with caution knowing that it won’t kick in until Giordano is 33 years old. 

But Calgary can only be cautious to a point. Not only has Giordano been their most important player on the ice the last two years, he’s also their captain and the leader of a young team. While we can all debate the importance of intangibles and locker room culture, it’s fair to say that Giordano has been instrumental in getting rid of the general malaise that existed in prior years.

If Gio is a few years younger, this contract is far more black and white. It’s also more cut and dried if we saw signs that he was tailing off as he moves deeper into his 30’s, but in this case that’s just the opposite. There’s no doubt this is as fascinating a negotiation as the Flames have maybe ever had.

Contract comparables

Mark Giordano and Zdeno Chara aren’t really comparable as hockey players, other than they’re both really good defencemen. When trying to find comparable contract situations to Giordano’s, however, Chara is the one that most fits the bill.

The more recent contract extensions signed by defencemen are a little more difficult to apply here. PK Subban signed an eight year, $72 million deal last August, but his new contract kicked in at the age of 26. That’s a seven year gap between him and Giordano, which makes the entire scope of Subban’s contract less applicable here.

More applicable is Johnny Boychuk, who signed a seven year, $42 million extension with the Islanders earlier this season. In terms of age, Boychuk is far closer since he’ll start his new contract as a late 31-year-old. Giordano is a better player, so you can possibly extrapolate contract terms by using Boychuk as a benchmark.

But I like Chara as a comparable, and I’ll tell you why. Chara signed his seven year, $45.5 million contract at the age of 33 and it took effect one year later. The ages match up, which is nice when trying to frame the conversation, but lots of other things match up as well.

It’s fair to say that Giordano has entered the same realm that Chara was in just a few years ago. That territory consists of the very best blueliners in the world. On top of that, Giordano means just as much to his team now as Chara did then, both on the ice and off.

If this was three years ago, Boychuk is your better comparison. But knowing what Giordano has done the last two seasons, the best contract for us to use as a potential blueprint is Chara’s. Yes, NHL economics have changed in the last five years, which is why any comparison is meant only as a guideline. Chara got seven years, though, let’s not forget that.

Idealism vs. Realism

house_of_cards2

I think many Flames fans would like to see Giordano given a deal as a show of thanks. He’s meant so much to this organization and has worked so hard throughout his career, rewarding him with a seven or eight year deal might be viewed upon favourably. I think it’s important to inject a steady dose of pragmatism to the proceedings, though.

This is still a business, and Calgary still has millions of dollars coming on their cap in the next couple of years. Extensions to players like Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett, and Mikael Backlund aren’t going to come cheap. Sometimes in business, you have to be a little more cold.

Does Treliving need to employ Frank Underwood tactics of throwing people in front of moving trains? Mmm, probably not. However, keeping the facts very clear will be helpful as Calgary settles on a number for their captain.

By no means do I think the Flames should be lowballing Giordano here. He deserves to get paid, and he deserves to be taken care of with a longer term deal. But to go all out on an eight year max deal doesn’t make a lot of sense in the long run, even if it does knock the cap hit down a little bit.

Treliving has shown in his small amount of time on the job that he doesn’t just throw term around. TJ Brodie’s extension is the most significant deal signed under his watch, and it’s not as if that contract saw the player hitting the jackpot. In fact, Brodie’s five year deal is the longest one signed under Treliving. In most cases, that’s a positive thing, and that applies here as well.

Coming to terms

So let’s get to the skinny. Giordano is going to sign an extension with Calgary and he’s going to remain this team’s captain for quite some time. But, realistically, what is this new contract going to look like? We won’t know for sure, but I think we have the tools to at the very least paint a rather lifelike picture.

Using Chara’s deal, and to a lesser extent Boychuk’s, as a guideline, I think coming to a term length of six years sounds reasonable. Why not seven like the other two? Well, Chara has a Norris which gives him a slight boost, and Boychuk is slightly younger which makes it easier to sign a deal of that length. Six years carries Giordano to the age of 39, and there’s a good chance he’ll still be playing at that point.

For me, six years at $48 million sounds like a pretty realistic figure. That gives Gio an average annual value of $8 million, which is fair. Yes, Subban is at $9 million, but he’s won a Norris, is younger, and still has a crazy high ceiling. But that proposed deal is still a big payday with solid long term security.

Of course, a deal like that isn’t perfect for the Flames. I’m sure they’d much rather do a two year deal at an even higher cap hit, but we all know that’s likely not in the cards. $48 million over six years is fair for both sides. It’s around market value for Giordano, without factoring any UFA overpayment. For Calgary, they’re paying an important player what he’s worth, but not going to overboard on the loyalty side of it.

Feel free to extoll my virtues or laugh in my face depending on how close I am come July or August.

  • TheRealPoc

    I’m wondering if Treliving’s overt priority to extend Gio this summer might actually help with keeping the price tag lower? Think about it this way: Gio’s had two consecutive Norris-calibre seasons, yes. But he’s also sustained significant injuries in 3 of the last 4 seasons – torn hammy in ’11-’12, broken ankle last year, torn bicep this year. Not counting the lockout year, that’s 60 games missed across those three seasons, or 25% of potential GP.

    Tabling an extension now removes a lot of pressure on Gio’s part – you’re no longer worried about potentially hitting UFA as the guy who’s been injured in 4 of his last 5 seasons, which could impact market value in a detrimental fashion. But that security comes at a price, and I think it would be in the form of a lower AAV. I have a hard time seeing Gio hit $8M; if Treliving’s able to use the above reasoning to keep the AAV close to, or even under $7M for the remainder of Gio’s prime, that would be a massive boon for this franchise’s title chances.

  • piscera.infada

    @Kevin R, @TheRealPoc

    Is Spurgeon not the #3 defenseman in Minnesota? I always assumed he was. He deployed as such, with pretty good results. That’s also a pretty deep team on the blueline.

    • TheRealPoc

      I think last year was sort of a breakout for him, not sure he would be that surefire #3 to get the best of Russell, but like the RealPoc says, a definite upgrade & I would be onside to try & make something like that happen. It also frees us up to trade Wideman.

  • Reidja

    Lock him up forever I say. 8 years at 6.5 per season. It will be a good deal until he’s 37 and there is a tonne of uncertainty about what 6.5 means that far out anyway. If the economy gets rolling the cap could be $80MM by 2020.

  • supra steve

    It would not be prudent or responsible at the age off 33 years old to sign him to more than a 5 year deal. You’re setting yourself up for future cap issues when coupled with the fact they’ll have increasing contract demands with their emerging new core (Monahan, Bennett, Gaudreau) to deal with during that time frame.

    4-5 years should be what they’re targeting in terms of length and that should not be unrealistic for Giordano’s camp…I’d estimate the cap hit to be in the $7M-$8M range annually. Yes, this is fair for both parties and no I do not believe Gio’s camp will turn this into a debacle like PK’s camp did…why? Because Gio is not a douche and wants to be here setting an example. In layman terms, there is zero ego involved with this player.

    Looking forward to seeing this deal get signed