The Flames Are A Lot Better At Home Than Away

After last night, the Calgary Flames have played 28 games this season. By sheer coincidence, the Flames have played 14 home games and 14 away games. At home, the Flames are now 9-5-0 and on the road they’re 3-9-2.

But beyond the records, are the Flames playing that much better at home than on the road? Let’s dig into the numbers.

EVEN-STRENGTH

In terms of possession hockey, the Flames are a little bit better at home than on the road, with a home Corsi For percentage of 49.0 and a road percentage of 48.2. It’s not a significant difference. Similarly, the Flames play about as “high-event” a game at home (110.3 Corsi Events per 60 Minutes) as on the road (113.1).

The primary difference for the Flames appears to be shooting percentage. At home, they score on 8.8% of their even-strength shots, compared to just 7.1% on the road. That’s pretty huge, even over a small sample size.

Aside from that, their goaltending is about as good in both venues (89.8% even-strength save percentage at home, 90.1% on the road) and their face-off winning percentage is an identical 47.9% across the board.

In short: at even-strength, they’re getting the bounces at home and they’re not on the road. Some of that may be because of controlling the match-ups, though.

POWER PLAY

Are the Flames better at home with the extra man than on the road? Not really, no. They’re a good face-off team in both scenarios – 52.4% at home, 52.1% on the road – and they play a higher event style at home (100.7 Corsi Events per 60 minutes versus 96.2 on the road). But in terms of overall puck possession, their Corsi For percentage is virtually identical in both areas (88% at home, 87.9% on the road).

PENALTY KILL

The penalty kill does seem to be more effective away from the Saddledome. Their Corsi For percentage is 10.2% on the road compared to 7.7% at home, which is a decently big gap, and they’re better at faceoffs (40.3% at home, 36.9% on the road). However, while they play a lower-event PK game on the road (121.1 Corsi Events per 60 minutes, versus 128.3 at home), their goaltending has been appreciably worse (78.4% on the road, 81.4% at home) enough to override any advantages the rest of their play may produce on the PK.

INDIVIDUAL SCORING

The thought process is that, at home, a team controls their match-ups and has last change, so it should be easier to produce points at even-strength, which is why teams are expected to have better records at home than on the road. As you can see below, the results are varied.

More Points At Home Than On the Road: Mikael Backlund, Johnny Gaudreau, Markus Granlund, David Jones, Josh Jooris, Sean Monahan, T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton and Dennis Wideman.

More Points On The Road Than At Home: Sam Bennett, Micheal Ferland, Michael Frolik, Jiri Hudler, Deryk Engelland and Kris Russell.

And everyone else is even at home and on the road.

Who’s shocked about basically all of Calgary’s offensive players having better even-strength numbers at home than on the road, the Flames having a better even-strength goal differential at home than on the road (-3 at home, -12 on the road), and having a much better record?

Notable are Johnny Gaudreau (14 points at home, 3 points on the road) and Sean Monahan (11 points at home, 6 points on the road). Considering how huge they’ve been to driving the team’s production, again, no big surprise that the Flames have had a lot more success at the ‘Dome than away from it.

  • ChinookArchYYC

    I’m interested to see what happens after this 5 game home stand. Ryan’s clearly shown a trend where the team is playing better at home, but I wonder how much of this is timing. I believe they started playing better after the Chicago 4-1 loss, on Nov 15th. After that they started playing better (mostly) both home and away. And by better I mean, they looked like an NHL team that could complete against anyone. (Except for special teams where they’ve struggled all season, so far).

    8 Home & 11 Away games up to November 15th

    6 Home & 3 Away games after November 15th

    What I’m getting at is that the numbers are a bit skewed thanks to Calgary’s poor play in the first 20 games this year, where there were a lot of road games.

  • CofRed4Life

    I agree that matchups are huge. When we’re away, the other team can match their shut down line with our top line. Having last change can really help a team and coach out

  • The Fall

    Take a look at the schedule ahead. All of January and the first two weeks in February is looking great. They could run 75-80% though those games and be looking pretty dangerous.

  • The Last Big Bear

    By my eye, Gaudreau has basically been carrying the Flames since the last few weeks of the 2014-15 regular season.

    He was driving his line down the stretch, he was the only consistently effective forward in the playoffs, and he’s been the only consistently effective player this season. (I’ll give an honorable mention to Frolik, I suppose)

    If Gaudreau struggles, the Flames usually lose.

    I think about 75% of the Flames’ poor road performance compared to their home performance is Gaudreau getting better match ups at home.

    That reflects pretty poorly on the Flames, to be perfectly honest, but I think it’s accurate. It also reflects on Gaudreau, and the fact that the kid just keeps on chewing skittles and kicking *** is absolutely incredible.

    Gaudreau has been the Flames MVP this season in my opinion, to such a large margin that I couldn’t even name another candidate. And I think his home/road split probably accounts for a solid majority of the team’s home/road split.

    • Captain Ron

      Agree 100% that Gaudreau is THE bus driver on this team. He is amazing. Creates a scoring chance nearly every shift it seems.

      Honorable mention to Brodie I think

  • cberg

    It’s all how the team is performing lately as opposed to the road.

    Earlier when they were playing like crap they couldn’t win on the road or at home.. Lately they have been playing better and winning, just so happens we have been at home for the most part since than

  • Burnward

    Could the Flames choose to buy out Hiller like the Habs did Semin if it comes down to it?

    I would still like someone to push Ramo. Little faith in the existing options.

    • flames2015

      With Hiller being a UFA at the end of the season, we are better off letting him play his contract out. Considering we do not have any other goalie options right now anyway.

  • KiLLKiND

    Uh… Johnny Gaudreau does not have 14 points at home and 3 on the road as that puts him at only 17 points not the 28 he actually has. Monahan also has 27 points so he does not have 10 at home and 6 on the road.

    I do not know where to find this information. Would your more points at home compared to on the road still be accurate if you are using information from the same source? I am not trying to trash the article just want to have more accurate information.

    • KiLLKiND

      As per Roto World http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nhl/4147/johnny-gaudreau On December 8th, 19 of his 26 points were at home. Calgary has been on a home stand since then so he has 21 points at home and 7 on the orad which is still quite a gap.

      http://flames.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8476346 Sean Monahan has 15 at home and 12 on the road which is not nearly as big of a gap. When you consider how much worse Calgary has been on the road that also likely lowers his points so he has been roughly the same at home and on the road points wise. I’m not going to post every player on Calgary’s roster because I don’t think most people would like to read them. If you do let me know and I can make a a quick graph with every players home and road point totals.