We are now in the midst of the National Hockey League’s All-Star-Break and I think it’s safe to say that the Calgary Flames have underwhelmed with their on-ice performance this season.
With 34 games remaining on their docket, the Flames are eight points out of the post-season (and just two points up on the last-place club in the NHL). In the interest of shedding light on how the Flames’ chances look the rest of the way, we broke down their remaining schedule.
|Los Angeles||56.6%||0-1-0||Feb. 23 (A), Mar. 31 (A), Apr. 5 (H)|
|Nashville||53.9%||1-1-0||Mar. 9 (H)|
|Montreal||53.4%||0-1-0||Mar. 20 (A)|
|Anaheim||53.3%||0-2-0||Feb. 15 (H), Feb. 21 (A), Mar. 30 (A)|
|Carolina||53.2%||0-1-0||Feb. 3 (H)|
|St. Louis||51.6%||0-2-0||Mar. 14 (H)|
|Chicago||51.5%||1-1-0||Mar. 26 (H)|
|Winnipeg||51.3%||1-1-0||Mar. 16 (H)|
|Pittsburgh||51.0%||1-0-0||Mar. 5 (A)|
|San Jose||51.0%||1-2-0||Feb. 11 (A), Mar. 7 (H)|
|NY Islanders||50.6%||0-1-0||Feb. 25 (H)|
|Boston||50.1%||1-0-0||Mar. 1 (A)|
||49.3%||0-0-0||Feb. 9 (H), Mar. 21 (A)|
|Philadelphia||49.0%||1-0-0||Feb. 29 (A)|
|Minnesota||48.4%||0-0-0||Feb. 17 (H), Mar. 24 (A), Apr. 9 (A)|
|Edmonton||48.0%||2-1-1||Apr. 2 (A)|
|Arizona||47.2%||0-1-1||Feb. 12 (A), Mar. 11 (H), Mar. 28 (A)|
|Columbus||47.1%||1-0-0||Feb. 5 (H)|
|Vancouver||46.6%||1-1-0||Feb. 6 (A), Feb. 19 (H), Apr. 7 (H)|
|Buffalo||46.5%||1-0-0||Mar. 3 (A)|
|Ottawa||46.3%||0-0-1||Feb. 27 (H)|
|Colorado||44.5%||1-1-0||Mar. 18 (H)|
Bolded teams are in playoff spots. Underlined teams are below Calgary in the standings. And we sorted everything by Score-Adjusted Corsi, which is a possession metric that controls for teams not trying very hard when they’re winning games (and trying really hard when they’re losing).
The schedule is evenly broken down between 17 home dates and 17 road dates. But the bulk of the home schedule is a six-game homestand from March 7 to 18, so it’s not really as balanced as it seems. Of note: the Flames have four sets of back-to-back games, all of which involve travel between cities:
- A home game with Columbus followed by a game in Vancouver
- A game in San Jose followed by a game in Arizona
- A game in Montreal followed by a game in Toronto
- A game in Anaheim followed by a game in Los Angeles
When you consider that the Flames have lost both ends of five of six back-to-backs this season (and they split the other one), four more sets represents some bad news.
Some good news: 15 of their last 34 games are within the Pacific Division. However, they have the worst in-division record of any of the Pacific teams, which (again) doesn’t bode well.
Fifteen of their final 34 games are against teams in the playoffs right now, while 17 of their final 34 are against teams with Score-Adjusted Corsi percentages at 50% and up – the teams that are markedly better than they are at possession hockey. And for you Auston Matthews fans, the Flames have 5 game remaining against the teams below them in the standings, meaning they are, in a small way, the masters of their own destiny.
In summation: the Flames have a tough schedule and a ton of travel. It doesn’t look too good, folks.