Can Andrew Mangiapane make it at the next level?

We’ve written a ton about Andrew Mangiapane around these parts this season, primarily because he’s racked up a ton of points in the Ontario Hockey League as part of a very good Barrie Colts team. But one of the most frequent questions I get on Twitter is in regards to Mangiapane’s chances at the next level.

The short answer to that question is “Well, how is he achieving OHL success?” I dug into his numbers from the last three seasons to figure out what he’s good at.

EVEN-STRENGTH GOALS

  • 2013-14: 22 (0.324 per game)
  • 2014-15: 23 (0.338 per game)
  • 2015-16: 24 (0.545 per game)

In terms of every other kind of goal (empty-net, short-handed and power-play), Mangiapane had two in 2013-14, 20 in 2014-15 and 17 in 2015-16.

EVEN-STRENGTH PRIMARY ASSISTS

  • 2013-14: 17
  • 2014-15: 15
  • 2015-16: 13

In terms of all other kinds of assists (empty-net, short-handed, power-play and secondary even-strength), Mangiapane had 10 in 2013-14, 46 in 2014-15 and so far 23 in 2015-16.

This suggests that a ton of Mangiapane’s production last year was dependent on power-play time. But it also suggests that he’s getting better at even-strength, despite being a small, small man. Compare Mangiapane with Hunter Smith – another guy drafted in his second year of draft eligibility – and you’ll note a difference, as Smith’s production was inarguably a product of his immense size rather than a jump in skill.

EVEN-STRENGTH PRIMARY POINTS

  • 2013-14: 39 (0.574 per game)
  • 2014-15: 38 (0.559 per game)
  • 2015-16: 37 (0.841 per game)

That’s a pretty huge jump, and lends credence to the “Mangiapane’s getting better at even-strength” theory.

GAMES WITHOUT A POINT

  • 2013-14: 34 (50% of games)
  • 2014-15: 14 (20.6% of games)
  • 2015-16: 7 (15.9% of games)

I use this as a metric looking at consistency. I mean, sometimes players just aren’t feeling it. But Mangiapane just finds ways to get onto the scoresheet. Often.

    MULTI-POINT GAMES

    • 2013-14: 12 (17.6% of games)
    • 2014-15: 33 (48.5% of games)
    • 2015-16: 23 (52.3% of games)

    This is the flip-side of the previous measure. Sometimes, the puck just goes in. Mangiapane has gotten a bit better at stringing together multi-point games. Included in here: one hat-trick in 2013-14, two hat-tricks in 2014-15, and five hat-tricks in 2015-16.

    SOME OHL COMPARISONS

    Why compare Mangiapane to the following three players? Mangiapane was a draft-plus 1 selection of smaller stature. Smith was a draft-plus 1 selection, but more due to his Sept. 11 birthday than anything else (had he been born five days later, he wouldn’t have been eligible). Rieder and Trocheck, meanwhile, are pretty close to Mangiapane-size, though they are a little bigger. 

    (Bolded sections are for when each player was drafted.)

    Andrew
    Mangiapane
    Hunter
    Smith
    Tobias
    Rieder
    Vincent
    Trocheck
    Draft-Minus 1 n/a 15gp; 0g/1pt
    (0 g/gp)
    (0.067 pts/gp)
    n/a 68gp; 15g/43pts
    (0.221 g/gp)
    (0.632 pts/gp)
    Draft
    (first year eligible)
    68gp; 24g/51pts
    (0.353 g/gp)
    (0.750 pt/gp)
    30gp; 0g/1pt
    (0 g/gp)
    (0.033 pts/gp)
    65gp; 23g/49pts
    (0.354 g/gp)
    (0.754 pts/gp)
    68gp; 26g/62pts
    (0.382 g/gp)
    (0.912 pts/gp)
    Draft-Plus 1
    (or second year eligible)
    68gp; 43g/104pts
    (0.632 g/gp)
    (1.529 pts/gp)
    64gp; 16g/40pts
    (0.250 g/gp)
    (0.625 pts/gp)
    60gp; 40g/84pts
    (0.667 g/gp)
    (1.400 pts/gp)
    65gp; 29g/85pts
    (0.446 g/gp)
    (1.308 pts/gp)
    Draft-Plus 2 44gp; 39g/75pts
    (0.886 g/gp)
    (1.705 pts/gp)
    57gp; 23g/49pts
    (0.404 g/gp)
    (0.860 pts/gp)
    52gp; 27g/56pts
    (0.519 g/gp)
    (1.08 pts/gp)
    63gp; 50g/101pts
    (0.794 g/gp)
    (1.603 pts/gp)

    THE VERDICT

    Is Mangiapane rag-dolling younger OHLers? Nope. He’s still not very large.

    Is Mangiapane relying upon power-play production? He was last season, but he’s not nearly as dependent on special teams time for offense than he was then.

    Is Mangiapane an offensive threat for his team? Definitely, and at an increasingly large amount at even-strength.

    And when you compare him to Rieder and Trocheck – two players of similar size who have made it as NHLers – his production at the same age is comparable (and actually a little bit better) with those players. If he’s managed to put up these kind of numbers with his size, I don’t see why he can’t be at least a productive, Paul Byron-esque AHLer. He’s definitely earned the opportunity to prove himself at the next level, and he’ll probably get the chance next season.

      • BigRig91

        He needs to be given a chance to be with offensive players. Put him on a line with Ferland and Bennett. This will be a line that would be a real pain in the butt play against. They all have skill, attitude(play hard) and skill.

      • The GREAT Walter White

        Megapain is a beauty!

        If only we could draft as well in the early rounds as we do in the later rounds we would be contending right now….

        The list of mid to late first round picks and second and third round picks that have contributed anything to our team is very very small.

        The Demko/ McDonald fiasco will haunt us for a decade. It’s like drafting Trevor Kid over Martin Brodeur…….

        WW

      • Nick24

        I honestly thought Magiapane should have been drafted in his first year of eligibility. The Flames got a kid that could have some pretty decent NHL upside.
        Everything he’s been able to do in the OHL suggests that he’ll at least be a very good AHL player.

        And who knows? Maybe we have another Gaudreau-esque player, or maybe he is more of a Paul Byron type. But either way, he’s a guy fans should be excited for!

      • beloch

        Mangiapane’s NHLE:
        2013-2014: 19.3
        2014-2015: 38.8
        2015-2016: 44.7

        First, it’s trending in the right direction. Second, when a kid blows past 40 before turning 20, it’s almost certain he’ll play a significant number of games in the NHL. Mangiapane should no longer be considered a long-shot. He is a prospect worthy of notice and an outstanding return for a 6th rounder.

        Mangiapane is 7th in OHL scoring, so he has a decent shot at making the WJC team too. Here’s hoping we get to see what he can do if he makes the cut!

        Just for comparison, Sven Baertschi’s 18-year-old and 19-year-old seasons (roughly equivalent to 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 for Mangiapane) were 28.5 and 41.1 (Note: this is based on NHLE conversion factors of 0.27 for the WHL and 0.32 for the OHL). Baertschi may have faltered with the Flames, but he is now a legitimate NHL’er with the Canucks. Mangiapane could be better. That’s just nuts, given that Baertschi was a first rounder! We should take a lesson from Baertschi though, and practice patience. Even though he’s playing in a slightly tougher junior league than Baertschi was, Mangiapane could struggle for a while after turning pro. Patience may be necessary. This time around, let’s just hope Burke takes his concerns directly to the player instead of blabbing about them at press conferences!

        Finally, lets stop commenting on Mangiapane’s size. He’s bigger than Gaudreau by quite a bit. He’s the same height as Russel and Hudler and hockeydb currently lists his weight at 170, which is the same as Russel. Mangiapane will likely be heavier once he’s older and in NHL shape. There are plenty of smaller players in the NHL. Size is not going to be an issue for Mangiapane the way it might have been for Gaudreau (but wasn’t).

      • Cfan in Vic

        Not sure, but isn’t Andrew unsigned thus far? I seem to recall that Rasmus got a contract during training camp, and hoped that his team mate would receive one as well. Didn’t happen.

        It might be due to # of contracts allowed, but I hope he gets one soon. Just for the sake of good will and showing they have confidence in him…

      • BlueMoonNigel

        How come Flames fans call Mitch Marner the world’s tallest midget and say he’s too small for the show, while they tell me to toss out the measuring stick with Mangiapane because you can’t use it to measure his heart, determination and skill?

        • supra steve

          Because you take the words of a couple of Flame fans, who are behaving like idiots, to be the opinion of an entire fan base. Flame fans would love to have Marner as a Flames prospect. That is all.

          • BlueMoonNigel

            Not sure they would as the team is already badly undersized and one of the softest in the league, and when the playoffs begin and the big bad Kings start knocking their opponents over like bowling pins, the media and fans alike will once more harp on how the Flamers have to get bigger if they ever hope to be a contender. Heck, that is all I heard during the series with the Ducks last May. There is a reason Byron was released and I am sure that his size factored into the decision in that his skills were not enough to compensate for his lack of beef, so Bolig and Raymond stay and Byron goes.

            • Nick24

              The problem wasn’t the Flames weren’t big enough, it was that they weren’t good enough. Giordano was out, Brodie was injured and playing reduced minutes, and Wideman and Russel were playing top pairing minutes!
              Size can help, but it is never a determining factor of how good a team is. Do you think Chicago is worried about size? For all intents and purposes they’re a dynasty and they’re not a big team by any stretch.
              And who made it out of the East? Tama Bay! Are they a big team? No! But they’re good because they have players who are good at hockey and aren’t just big.

              They’re are ways of playing that lend to heavy games, like LA’s and Anahiem’s. But there are also successful ways to play that lend themselves to a speed and skill game. You no longer have to be a big team to be a good team.

              And side note, Mitch Marner is outstanding. Every team in the league would rather have him than not have him.

            • supra steve

              I’d like to say your comment was well thought out, but…Now you’re arguing against your own first point (“How come Flames fans call Mitch Marner the world’s tallest midget and say he’s too small for the show”), so a few Flame fans are not the only ones behaving like idiots.

        • BlueMoonNigel

          How come Flames fans call Mitch Marner the world’s tallest midget and say he’s too small for the show

          When has this been said? By anyone? Ever? I’m actually legitimately interested in the answer because I’ve never heard anyone say anything of the kind.