Flames 2, Wild 1 post-game embers: 36 shots, 31 seconds

USATSI_9241207
Photo credit: Brad Rempel/USA TODAY Sports

All it took was 31 seconds and a couple of first-ever NHL points to bring the Flames up from the drudges of a 1-0 loss, give an old goaltender the best possible farewell he probably could have asked for, and pick up a completely unnecessary two points.

Thirty-one seconds, and a trio of unlikely performers.

Niklas Backstrom was truly fantastic

In the four games Backstrom ultimately played for the Flames, he posted the following save percentages: .955%, .793%, .773%, and .972%; otherwise known as pretty good, yikes, yikes, and a classic case of an old Finnish goalie dragging the Flames to victory kicking and screaming.

Of the four games, the season finale was easily his best. Against Montreal, he only faced 22 shots. It was still a great performance back then, considering; Backstrom was coming off of not having played in 14 months, and for someone of his age and with his injury history to return to the game like that is impressive, no matter what.

But this was a game he earned, from start to finish. Minnesota was basically dead in the third period, mustering up a mere five shots, but he’d had to contend against 31 in the 40 minutes before while the skaters in front of him gave him very little help. It was, in all senses, his win.

And if this is it – and mind he’s 38 years old, with a battered body, who has only played four games recently and only two of them performed well in – then it’s a storybook ending. He was beat up in his first return to Minnesota, but in his second, he gave the fans he played in front of the most one last great performance – and the game meant nothing to Minnesota, so it was fine.

Backstrom wanted to play again, and the Flames and Wild worked together to accommodate his request. It just so happens to be poetic the final game of the season was between these two teams. It’s really nice he got that opportunity, and it couldn’t have gone any better.

I swear I’ve seen this before

Behold, Patrick Sieloff’s first NHL goal:

Now, T.J. Brodie’s first NHL goal:

They aren’t the same goal, obviously. Backstrom was on opposite ends of the ice for them. Brodie was much closer to the net for his, and it came off the cycle, rather than the rush. And Sieloff’s was deflected in.

And obviously, Sieloff isn’t about to become Brodie any time soon, or ever. They have different games.

I’m just saying, the Flames should probably bring rookie defencemen into Minnesota and tell them to just throw the puck at the net from the right side of the ice, because apparently, that gets them goals.

You seriously could not have picked a least likely duo to score in this game than Sieloff and Brandon Bollig. Too bad Deryk Engelland was unable to go; he probably could’ve scored another goal in his third straight game. Apparently he passed along his newfound powers.

Re-sign Josh Jooris

In a night in which the Flames took six penalties and didn’t give up a single power play goal, some extra shoutouts deserve to go to Brodie and Josh Jooris, because they were both just a couple of seconds shy from playing six minutes on the penalty kill.

Obviously, Brodie isn’t going anywhere. If this isn’t one last call out to re-sign Jooris, though, I have no idea what else would be. He only scored 13 points this season, but Jooris is exactly the kind of player who needs to be in the bottom six. He’s young, he’s smart, he’s capable of stepping up in case of injuries, he’s one of the better penalty killers the Flames have available, and he’s cost effective. There’s zero downside.

Jooris saw an extra 17 corsi events go against him when killing off penalties over six minutes. Ten of them were actual shots against. He was called upon big time, though, and weathered the storm, with some help from his goalie.

Considering how Jooris inexplicably spent about a quarter of the season as a healthy scratch, he’s more than made his case that he deserves to stick around for the future.

  • The Last Big Bear

    Josh Jooris outplays his cap hit.

    But his upside is pretty much 4th liner.

    A player like that is valuable, but probably has more value for a contending team than he does to a rebuilding team.

    For a contender, the spots at the bottom of the roster are holes to be plugged. For a rebuilding team, roster spots are precious real estate to develop prospects.

    I’d rather see the Flames use those spots to try out players like Ferland, Wolf, and Knight, guys who have potential to be something more.

    • Greg

      I’d argue a player like Jooris is more important to a rebuilding team. You can only plug so many holes any given year, so you can’t just go around whale hunting and then assume you’ll find all your support players once you’ve developed enough prospects. Just look 3 hours north.

      I’d also argue that there’s quite a few players I’d target as taking up development spots on the Flames roster ahead of a pretty young Jooris. All the guys north of 30 that aren’t named Gio, for example. Find a way to clear all them, and then we can decide if Jooris is still blocking a prospect with more long term value to the team.

    • MattyFranchise

      The kid over a full season is pro rated to 88 points. A very impressive rookie year. I think the last higher one was Malkin with 90+ points or whatever.

      Too bad McDavid’s team still sucks.

      • The GREAT Walter White

        All those points, yet still a minus +/-……!?

        Lots of secondary assists on the pp, the kid never leaves the ice with the man advantage.

        WW

        • Oil City Roller

          Dude I get that you hate the Oilers. I’ll be honest, at this point I’m pretty sour with them myself. We suck, we’re tankers, the shame of the NHL, etc. I couldn’t agree more.

          The thing is, when you try to legitimately say McDavid is a bad player you look foolish. That’s like me saying Goudreau sucks. He doesn’t, he’s a good player. Now I might make fun of him and his unmanly statue but I wouldn’t trot out a bunch of stats to say he sucks. That would be dumb.

          When most every player, coach, and hockey writer says McDavid is right now, one of the best players in the league it’s kind of hard to argue. Just my two cents. Otherwise love the chirps and look forward to much trash talk prior to draft day.

          • The GREAT Walter White

            He is a good player, never said he wasn’t (even though he does have some Oiler stink on him already…).

            How do you think McDavid will feel if the Oilers win the lottery again?

            Happy to have another top talent on the team?

            Or pissed because he is no longer the shiny new toy?

            WW

  • McRib

    The Calgary Flames have a 26.278% chance of picking Top. 3, 9.094% of finishing 5th. Therefore we have a 35.372% of picking in Top. 5.

    35.465% chance of picking 6th. 25.467% chance of picking 7th. 3.697% chance of picking 8th. Therefore we have 64.629% chance of picking outside Top. 5.

    If we would have lost yesterday we would have had a 59.457% chance of picking Top. 5, so winning yesterday (one meaningless game, last time I promise, I wouldn’t have cared as much if it was not just for a goalie who played 4 career games with us standing on his head) we forfeited a 24.098% chance of improving odds to pick Top. 5, essentially we would have doubled our chances to do so.

    Anyway we won it, therefore I’ll stop complaining as odds are set, I’ll get over it, come on 26.278%!!!!

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/4/10/11396278/2016-nhl-draft-lottery-final-rules-and-odds-table

    • MattyFranchise

      So… it’s pretty early for me to be doing math but what you’re saying is a 1 in 4 chance of being in the top 3 and a 1 in 4 chance of picking 8th but we still have a 50% chance of picking 4th to 7th? Am I reading that right?

      Honestly, if anything major happens to shift the draft order it’s going to be 3 teams that aren’t Edmonton that either remain in the bottom 3 or move into it so the league can say “working as intended.”

      • McRib

        “1 in 4 chance of picking 8th but we still have a 50% chance of picking 4th to 7th? Am I reading that right”

        No we only have a 3.697% (1 in 27) of picking 8th and the likelihood of that happening can only happen if none of Toronto, Edmonton, Vancouver, Columbus win a Top. 3 pick in the lottery (moment one of those teams wins a Top. 3 pick chance of us picking 8th falls to zero). If only one of those teams wins a Top. 3 pick then we pick 7th. If only two of those teams win a Top. 3 pick then we pick 6th. If all three of those teams win Top. 3 picks then we pick 5th. Essentially what we want is for us to win a Top. 3 pick or all ahead of us to win the picks that they should (I know this will be tough for Calgary fans to support, being that they are Toronto, Edmonton & Vancouver). Most likely I think we will pick 6th (if we don’t win a Top. 3 pick). Odds are that 2 of 3 Top. 3 picks will be won by the four teams below us in standings, causing us to slide to 6th from 5th.

        Odds worst five teams (Toronto, Edmonton, Vancouver, Columbus, Calgary) win Top. 3 pick 1) 63% 2) 60.4% 3) 57.6%. I can’t see bucking those trends more than twice, which means absolutely worse case we finish 7th. We are 7x more likely to be picking Top. 3 than 8th.

        • Dan the Drunk

          The error you make is by lumping percentages together. I caught it by the perfectly rounded numbers, but I didn’t have time to do the math for you. You owe me a drink.

          The Draft Lottery will have 200 balls. 17 balls will belong to the Flames. The Flames have a 17/200 chance to pick first. Best outcome, but not the most probable.

          The likeliest outcome is the Leafs win. Their 40 balls will be removed from the 200. But worst case (for the Flames) is the Bruins winning first pick. That means only 2 balls will be removed. This means the Flames have a chance from 17/160 (at best) to 17/198 (at worst) of getting the second pick overall.

          If the other second most likeliest team to win gets the second pick (the Oilers – boo), another 27 balls are removed from the pool. Worst case is that the ‘Canes win and their 4 balls are removed. This means the Flames have anywhere from 17/137 to 17/194 of getting the third overall pick.

          Dig?

          Worst possible outcome for the Flames is that they pick 8th overall. If any team outside of the Flames and bottom of the standings all pick top 3, the chance of that happening is anywhere from 11/200 to 57/200.

          Second worst outcome (picking seventh) is has ton of variations. A combination like the Leafs, Blue Jackets, and Jets picking top three (74 balls) to the Bruins, Canes and Canucks picking top three (29 balls). The Flames have a chance of 29/200 to 74/200 of picking seventh.

          A more likelier outcome is the Flames pick sixth. A combination of the Leafs, Oilers, and Bluejackets picking top three (86 balls) to the Bruins, Canucks, and Oilers (52 balls). The Flames have a chance of 52/200 to 86/200 of picking sixth.

          Capiche?

          • McRib

            “The Draft Lottery will have 200 balls. 17 balls will belong to the Flames. The Flames have a 17/200 chance to pick first. Best outcome, but not the most probable.

            The likeliest outcome is the Leafs win. Their 40 balls will be removed from the 200. But worst case (for the Flames) is the Bruins winning first pick. That means only 2 balls will be removed. This means the Flames have a chance from 17/160 (at best) to 17/198 (at worst) of getting the second pick overall.

            If the other second most likeliest team to win gets the second pick (the Oilers – boo), another 27 balls are removed from the pool. Worst case is that the ‘Canes win and their 4 balls are removed. This means the Flames have anywhere from 17/137 to 17/194 of getting the third overall pick.”

            I agree with all of this, like a said I fully understand that the odds will fluctuate once certain picks have been taken from pick selection pool.

            “Worst possible outcome for the Flames is that they pick 8th overall. If any team outside of the Flames and bottom of the standings all pick top 3, the chance of that happening is anywhere from 11/200 to 57/200”.

            You lose me here. This is only a Top. 3 lottery, picking 5-8 are a result of how the Top. 3 went down, everyone just shifts from picks 4-14 after that. For instance the odds of us selecting 8th doesn’t fluctuate, as it can only happen if none of Toronto, Edmonton, Vancouver, Columbus win a pick in Top. 3 and we don’t as well (which would be insane, considering we have next best odds). The chance of that not happening three times in a row is 3.697%. If any of those four teams gets at least one pick in Top. 3 (96.303% chance) then we will be picking 7th or better.

            I’m sure we could discuss this until the sun comes up (over beers would be preferable), I really don’t even disagree with what you are saying and like to see where you are coming from. I acknowledge that the data I used isn’t finalized because the odds pool shifts after someone is taking out (only during Top. 3). I was a straight B student in two university statistics classes after all, I may or may not have rounded some corners (stats was the only mathematics based class I didn’t cruse to As in during a Finance degree), but I’ll still fight my totals to the bitter end!!!!! Hahahah. Anyway, enjoyed the back and fourth, too lazy to truly delve into the real figures. .

    • Dan the Drunk

      The odds/ percentages are dynamic. Once the first pick is selected, their bingo balls are removed and the odds increase for the remaining teams.

      It is most probable that the selection remains the same as the order in the standings – not a certainty, but the most likely outcome. The chance that one of the Leafs, Oilers, and Canucks choosing the top pick are 2/5+ (or 1/2-). Once the first place selection is confirmed, the odds of the second place selection going to the Leafs, Oilers, or Canucks change to 1/3.

      If I were to place a professional bet on anything though (a safe bet), I would assume the Flames fall one spot to six – a “fair” change that the NHL wanted to make by creating the lottery. But there’s a really good chance that the Flames move into the top three.

      TL;DR – Your numbers are wrong. The odds are dynamic.

      • McRib

        My numbers aren’t wrong they are the odds before a pick is made (they aren’t even my numbers, the are Pension Plan Puppets), which is the only thing that can be quantified at this point as we don’t know how the balls will drop. These odds may fluctuate slightly for picks 2-3 (but that’s it, this isn’t an open lottery for all 14 teams. It’s not even a lottery for anything past Top. 3 picks). Unless lower odds based teams than us win the initial picks, then the top odds teams will still have the majority of selections left in the pool. If for example NJ, Winnipeg and Boston win the Top. 3 sections then our chances of picking 5-6 falls to zero, as the odds pool would be dominated by the initial odds on favorites below us in standings (I understand this is highly unlikely).

        What we want if we don’t win a Top. 3 selection is all of the teams ahead of us to win, then we will have much greater odds at securing a 5-6 pick (we can’t win 4th). Looking at our initial 3.697% odds at selecting 8th. That really can only happen if the 6-14 place teams win the Top. 3 picks coming out of obscurity to do so. If the Top. 3 picks all fall in line with Toronto, Edmonton, Vancouver winning them in some order then we are assured to pick 5th.

        Picks 4-14 are just the rest of the draft falling into place (it’s not a lottery). Teams can only fall a maximum of three places so Toronto has to pick 4th if they don’t pick Top. 3, Edmonton 5th, etc. So there is absolutely nothing “dynamic about that” this isn’t an open lottery between the worse 14 teams. It’s a limited Top. 3 lottery, where removing one or two teams only changes things from original odds by 2-3% at most for just those two picks. So yeah these numbers won’t change at all really in the slightest, whether you want to believe them or not, is up to you. Flames have a 1 in 3.8 shot of picking Top. 3. If Toronto and Edmonton win then our odds might increase to 1 in 3.5, but that’s it. If Boston wins the first pick then our odds don’t really improve as the main place holders (Toronto, Edmonton, Vancouver, Columbus) still would hold majority of odds in lottery pool. I do agree with you that most likely we will to slide to 6th.

    • Kevin R

      McRib, I love your posts but what more really could the Flames have done to have lost that game short of pulling the goalie in the 2nd period. How could we have pulled Backstrom in his last game in the NHL, in what was by by fluke, against Minny, in a game we so needed to lose. If we could have swapped Hiller in when Minny swapped Kuemper for Duby, that may have solidified this thing for us. It was just pure destiny that seemed so cosmic, you have to ride it. I hope it means we will be rewarded for all the good cosmic Karma to winning a top 3 pick. You knew after the first period that some higher level s$!t was going down.

      • McRib

        I’ve moved passed it, but the moment that Kuemper replacing Dubnyk move happened I knew we were going to win the game. Hahah. Going into it with the hometown Dubnyk starting, I thought we had secured the loss, as I knew he would play Calgary strong.

  • Franko J

    Hey for a player who is only 18 Kylington looked pretty good.

    Disappointed the Flames couldn’t follow up with another post season appearance, however kudos to Gaudreau, Giordano, Backlund, Brodie, and Colbourne on having individual success this year.

    Going forward the Flames have to stabilize the situation between the pipes.
    Improve on the PK and play more consistent like they did this past week.

  • Dan the Drunk

    I believe that there’s a math crisis… I can’t wrap my head around some of the figures that the media is presenting; but I also worry that it’s me. The big problem is when lumping percentages together as odds. An example of this is saying the Flames have a 26% chance of placing top three – I believe it’s a number that floats (grows or weakens) around 8-10%, but never stronger.

    An example of the problem:

    Three folks walk into a bar and each order a drink at the same time. The chance of being served first are 1/3, (while the chance of being served last is 1/3). Once someone is served, the odds of being served next is 1/2 (by elimination). The odds then of being served last are 50%. Imagine saying from the very beginning that there’s a 50% of being served last – but that might be a more accurate statement than saying that the TRUE odds of being served last are 1/3 (when there’s two left standing). This is how I see the odds as dynamic.

    At no point can you lump or combine these numbers! 33% (1/3) and 50% (1/2) cannot be combined for 83% chance (of being served last). This is what I see in the media and from post (#9). Crisis!

    In relation to the order of the draft, 37% of the balls (or numbers) will award a team from the bottom of the standings the first draft pick (and move the Flames down a position). That’s a good solution to the problem of tanking.

    Depending on which “outside” team selects first, the amount of balls (or numbers) belonging to an “outside” team for the second selection can range from 37% to 30% (estimates). This would move the Flames down another position (#8).

    Depending on the team who selects first and second, the amount of balls (or numbers belonging to an “outside” team for the third selection can range from 35% to 24% (estimates).

    Pretty scary eh? A bigger number than the 6% chance that some people are stating (or the 3.697% that you’ve suggested). But a very good solution to tanking.

    ****

    I did make an error in my method yesterday by including the Blue Jackets as a team that could force the Flames down a position. This is why you have other people check your work right? This effects the result by 4 balls or 2%. Ooops. Thanks for pointing that out.

    The other thing I should mention is the actual draft will be done with 14 balls in the machine (not 200 or 1000), and teams will be assigned a certain amount of combinations based on their position in the standings. Calgary will have a series of 85 combinations. Using the ball analogy and smaller numbers is a little easier to picture in my mind.