Flames, Blue Jackets and 3rd Overall

We previously looked at the possibility of trading up to third overall, but the conclusion at the time was that the price demanded by Columbus would make the move untenable. 

Today, however, Bob McKenzie appeared on Vancouver radio and suggested the Blue Jackets have their eye on Logan Brown or Clayton Keller, suggesting they may be willing to move down

“Of the three (CBJ, EDM & VAN), Columbus might be the one most open to do something right now…

They’ve got the third pick…the sense that a lot of people are getting right now is that Columbus Blue Jackets are not sold on Jesse Puljujarvi in that spot and they may be looking for positionally oriented need. Specifically two centres come to mind… one is Logan Brown… and the other is Clayton Keller.

There is this sense that if somebody wants to move to number three to draft Puljujarvi, if the Blue Jackets could get themselves a pick that’s a few picks later and not drop out of the top 10, they’d still have a shot at Brown or Keller.”

With that in mind, the Flames would seem to be the Blue Jackets’ ideal trading partner. 

  • Calgary with the sixth overall pick puts the Blue Jackets in perfect position to move down but still have the option to pick either Brown or Keller (probably both), but not too far down to risk both being gone. 
  • In addition, it’s a big enough leap forward to make trading up worthwhile for the Flames, but not so far that the price would become prohibitive.
  • In addition, Puljujarvi ticks a lot of boxes for the Flames in particular: a big, strong, scoring RW who can play with either Monahan or Bennett. Calgary’s right side is possibly the weakest position organizationally. Adding a prospect of Puljujarvi’s quality would instantly fix that. 
  • Finally, aside from pick six, the Flames have a lot of other mid-round picks that could be part of the trade package, including three second rounders.

Of course, none of this means that the Blue Jackets won’t still demand a king’s ransom in return for the third pick for anyone who comes knocking. If Columbus starts asking for core roster players in return, the Flames will no doubt walk away. However, if the price is a mix of picks and prospects, Calgary would be well advised to seriously consider it.

So what would you be willing to trade for Puljujarvi folks?

  • reidja

    The price of the pick is going to depend entirely on how low Columbus is willing to go. If anything in the top 10 is possible, that could include 5 or 6 teams making offers. A great seller’s market. One terrifying realization is that Benning is likely involved in the discussion. If the bargain is “Benning is willing to give us this: “, then I don’t like the chances of the Flames making a reasonable deal.

  • Greatsave

    @freetheflames Agree that another way to look at this question is: what is the upgrade of the player you draft at #6 (be it Dubois/Tkachuk/Nylander–forwards–or Chychrun/Juolevi/Sergachev–defencemen) to Puljujarvi worth? Is it worth TWO 2nd-round picks?

    I think it’s more sensible to stay at #6 *and* look for some way to get back into the 1st round. @Backburner suggested Minny’s #15 could be available, and I agree we should look at moving into that range.

    If you look at the ten drafts between 2002 and 2011 (incidentally, all #1-5 overalls from these drafts have “made it” to the NHL, to varying degrees of success of course), the rate at which draft picks make it to the NHL drops drastically from 50% in the late first-round (#21-30) to 27% in the second round (even in the first half, i.e. #31-45).

    The mid-first-round picks (#11-20) had a 62% rate. If we break it down further, the #11-15 picks were 66%; the #16-20 were 58%. Curiously though, only 5 of the 10 #15 picks made it, a lower rate than the groups both above and below. That means the #11-14 picks were at 70%.

    Given that the rate at which second round picks have turned into regular NHLers is at 27%, if we take these rates as probabilities going forwards, the odds that at least one will make it is 64%; the odds of none making it is conversely 36%. Furthermore, the odds of two of them making it is 18%, and of all three, 2%.

    Personally, I’m all for turning two of our second-rounders into a #16-20 (42% failure vs. 51%) or all three of them into a #11-14 overall (30% failure vs. 36%). The players expected available in those ranges are pretty exciting.

    That was a lot of numbers; apologies if that put you off or confused you. Curious to hear what you guys think.