How many points will each Flames player get in 2016-17?

We’re inching closer and closer to the beginning of camps for the 2016-17 National Hockey League season. And with the hockey season getting closer and closer, the various fantasy hockey guides are hitting newsstands – and the Internet – for poolies to fawn over.

Much like our brethren over at The Leafs Nation, we’re curious as to how many points each prognosticator believes various Calgary Flames players will earn over the next season. And our pal Dom Luszczyszyn even provided us with the same projections for Flames players as he did for the Maple Leafs’ for this season. (Thanks, Dom!)

The forecasts that we’re using here are:

  • Dom Luszczyszyn’s forecast, based upon a player’s last three seasons.
  • The Hockey News Ultimate Fantasy Pool Guide
  • Dobber Hockey’s Fantasy Guide
  • The Sports Forecaster NHL Preview and Fantasy Guide

We’ve averaged the projections and ordered the players from most projected points to least. In TLN’s comparison they changed projections to what a player would get in an 82-game season. We left things as they were projected, as these forecasts potentially hold some assumptions about a player’s role, ability to stay healthy and productivity.

FORWARDS

Player DOM THN DOB FOR Average
Johnny Gaudreau 78 80 81 92 82.8
Sean Monahan 63 68 68 75 68.5
Sam Bennett 48 54 48 51 50.3
Troy Brouwer 41 43 48 52 46.0
Mikael Backlund 44 42 41 43 42.5
Michael Frolik 41 42 40 40 40.8
Matthew Tkachuk 39 31 35.0
Hunter Shinkaruk 36 34 28 32.7
Lance Bouma 26 26 21 30 25.8
Daniel Pribyl 34 29 14 25.7
Micheal Ferland 26 24 22 24 24.0
Alex Chiasson 23 21 30 21 23.8
Linden Vey 27 16 26 23.0
Matt Stajan 22 16 16 18.0
Brandon Bollig 11 6 6 7.7

Every single forecast indicates that Gaudreau will be Calgary’s leading scorer and Monahan will be the second-leading scorer. In other news: the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, and water is wet. Heck, the guides all seem to indicate that the same six guys will be the six-leading scorers on the team among forwards. The only thing they disagree on is whether Bennett out-scorers Brouwer or not. The Forecaster’s projections for Gaudreau and Monahan are both the highest in this range.

If Tkachuk makes the NHL team, the indication is he’ll be good for between 30 and 40 points. Shinkaruk is in the same situation, with a slightly lower projected scoring range. Beyond them, things get a bit wonky, as there’s a shockingly large range for Bouma and Chiasson (both between 20 and 30 points, which seems high) and Pribyl (between 14 and 34 points). Bouma and Chiasson will both probably be used in bottom-six roles, which will make it challenging to reach 30 points, while Pribyl’s likely to begin the season polishing off rehab for an off-season knee surgery. Considering he’ll probably start the year (a) late and (b) in the AHL, 34 points seems quite high for a guy that’s never played in North America. Vey is also somebody with a large projected range, though his is a bit lower and seems a bit more reachable. Lastly, Stajan and Bollig are both suitably low given their statures on the club, and both seem to be in largely the right range.

If a player is going to out-kick their projected range, it might be Ferland; he’s got size and moves well for a player of his stature, and the team’s emphasis on being “hard to play against” could result in him getting top-six time (as he did last year) and potentially reps on the power-play.

DEFENSEMEN

Player DOM THN DOB FOR
Average
Mark Giordano 53 51 51 49 51.0
Dougie Hamilton 46 44 52 48 47.5
T.J. Brodie 44 44 44 55 46.8
Dennis Wideman 34 32 31 29 31.5
Jyrki Jokipakka 18 15 19 18 17.5
Jakub Nakladal 17 17.0
Deryk Engelland 15 12 11 12.7
Tyler Wotherspoon 13 8 10.5
Ladislav Smid 7 7.0

As with the forwards, there’s a fair bit of consensus at the high-end of the scoring for blueliners. Giordano, Hamilton and Brodie are all projected to be in about the same point range, though the Forecaster projects Brodie in the lead, Dobber has Hamilton, and Dom and The Hockey News both think Giordano leads. There’s also a fair bit of consensus in terms of Wideman’s projection.

Honestly? Other than some small lack of consensus regarding whether Nakladal and Smid will play on the team (Dom says yes, the others either don’t or don’t think their production will be that big) and how much Wotherspoon will play, none of the forecasts here seem all that out of whack.

I’d be astonished if Smid got 7 points this season. If Jokipakka can somehow displace somebody and get some power-play time, or if he and Hamilton click as a pairing, he could beat his projected point totals.

OTHER NOTES

How many 50+ point-scorers will the Flames have?

The Forecaster says five: Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Brouwer and Brodie.

Dobber and The Hockey News each say four: Gaudreau, Monahan and Giordano, along with Hamilton (Dobber) and Bennett (Hockey News).

Dom says three: Gaudreau, Monahan and Giordano.

How many 20+ goal-scorers will the Flames have?

The Hockey News projects five: Gaudreau and Monahan (projected as 30-goal guys), Backlund, Bennett and Brouwer

Dom, Dobber and the Forecaster project four, and all the same four: Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett and Brouwer. All three project Gaudreau will score 30+, while Dom and Forecaster think Monahan will too.

Be sure to checkout Dailyfaceoff.com for their projections coming soon and in season updates for all things fantasy Hockey.

  • StarkRaving

    That seems like a lofty total for Bennett, but it might be attainable if he gets decent linemates.

    Ferland had 4 goals and 14 assists last year along with a horrible SH%. I’d be very pleased if he could double his goal output.

    • piscera.infada

      If Ferland can shoot at or around league average (8.90%–league average the last two seasons), you’re looking at around 10 goals this year, assuming the same number of shots as last year.

      I’ve said a few times that I firmly believe Ferland will have another opportunity on the top line this year. If he sticks with that line, or simply gets the “Backlund bump” for a prolonged period (which is another reasonable possibility), we’ll probably see an increased shot output.

    • Wheels

      I don’t think 50 points from Bennett is too far from reach, when you consider all the times a goal was called back or a shot hit the post. I think he could take a huge step forward, but I do agree that he’s going to need some better linemates. Seriously, just look at the photo in the article. (Bollig, really?)

  • Jumping Jack Flash

    I would like to see Tkachuk on the top line. I have to think a player can improve their skating significantly, just look at players like Benn and A Nylander who were referred to as average skaters that have turned their skating ability into a strength.

    If Tkachuk can crack the line up and play on he top line then that could free up Brower to play with Bennett which will help Bennett’s development. Eventually, I see Tkachuk and Benett being a dynamic duo for the future.

    The only question mark I see surrounding Tkachuk, is with the intense training that he has no doubt been enduring with Gary Roberts has likely not given him any time to recover from an ankle injury. Ankle sprains for players that are heavy footed seem more noticeable.

  • Jumping Jack Flash

    I see Bennett and Ferland as potentially having the biggest point gains compared to the previous season. I am encouraged to see that some experts feel Nakladal will still be in the mix. I am hoping he has a great World Cup and Calgary takes notice and signs him to a one way deal. He must be in line for at least a PTO.

  • Slowmo

    I think we will see a totally different team this yr top pairing will do as always kick butt. Bennett line will do much better this yr Bennett will have a break out yr and will produce 60 points or better Backs will do what he always does quietly work his magic and keep the hounds away and put up a few points as well.The Stagan line will probably be the Jank line by mid season and Mang and Anderson will also be up buy mid season. I foresee Kchucky on the Bennett line I think the biggest problem is we have so many forwards and not enough lines to put them on LOL. But to be realistic don’t be surprised to see a couple trades by opening season say good bye to JH he will be playing for Philly or another USA team close to Mommy Wides will be the throw in on the deal. With this trade we will win the Stanlee cup of unreal perdictions ;).

  • #97Train/McDavidCopperfield

    From the looks of these point totals everyone is going to have a career year in Calgary. Elliot sure seems to have brought lots of optimism to the Flames this year.

  • freethe flames

    The issue for me is who will play with whom. What will the four lines look like and what will the expectations be of each line.

    I expect that the number one offensive line will be Johnny/Monny/??? expect that to score 80 plus goals and not be sheltered. The second offensive line which will be sheltered will likely be ???/Bennett/Brouwer and I expect it to score 60 plus goals. The third line which will be ???/Backs/Frolik and will be expected to take on the bulk of defensive zone starts and drive possession I expect to score 45 plus goals. If we can get a 4th line that mostly gets dzones and contributes 25plus goals that would be a bonus. This line will likley be Bouma/Stajan/Chiasson(although he might be elsewhere in the lineup).

    There are plenty of spots for players to earn and it should be a competitive camp.