Young Stars Fancy Stats: Game One

In these early season prospect tournaments, there’s no real tracking going on. This is both quite unfortunate, yet quite understandable. The fans get denied some deeper insight – but it’s a prospect tournament, insight really doesn’t matter. As a result, the NHL doesn’t do it, the teams don’t really bother with it, and neither do the analytics nerds. We did it anyways, because why not.

All of the tables are available here. I tracked this by myself in the wee hours of the morning, but I’m sure it’s at least 95% accurate.

Usage notes

  • Ryan Huska didn’t play with his lines at all save for the third period, when Jankowski wasn’t feeling well (no word on what it is, but he had to stay on the bench for the majority of the period heating up, according to Pat Steinberg) and a quarter of his team being sent for an early shower. Otherwise, the blender stayed tucked away.
  • I didn’t track TOI, but it appeared that ice time was evenly distributed, even before the game was clearly out of Winnipeg’s hands. Smith/Aagaard/Falkovsky and Kanzig/Morrison kept getting caught on long shifts.
  • For the few seconds of powerplay time, Huska only trusted his first line and first pairing with the task. They didn’t produce, but they looked very good in a short time frame.
  • For the PK, Huska went a bit unconventional. He matched up Jankowski with Aagaard (which led to a nice breakaway chance) and Lomberg and Pollock (which didn’t really work). No word why he prefers a double-centre approach.
  • We got to see plenty 4v4 this game, and nearly everyone got a taste of it. This was when Winnipeg scored their only goal
  • For whatever reason, Huska didn’t use Eetu Tuulola in any non-5v5 situation. You’d think he could slot in on the PK, seeing as he gave his line the defensive lifting.
  • Speaking of, let’s talk about the lines. Tkachuk-Janko-Carroll got the typical first line usage. They received heavy offensive zone time, and were working well. I felt they would’ve scored (Carroll scored when neither 19 nor 77 were on the ice), had Tkachuk not always been in the penalty box.
  • Mangiapane-Lomberg-Tuulola, as already mentioned, had heavy defensive zone starts for most of the game until they were forced to be the first line in the third period. When that switch happened, they took over the game, with each player posting a CF% over 80% and a FF% over 85%.
  • The only line that remained consistently defensive was Pollock-Dube-Phillips. This was also the Flames’ best line, receiving the toughest zone starts (22.22% at 5v5) but pushing the puck up better than any other line (all players above 85 CF%). They shut down every Winnipeg line. I’m very excited for all three of these players.
  • The fourth line held their own, albeit with the most generous zone starts.
  • Culkin-Andersson probably had the highest TOI for the Flames, and they did very good work.
  • Overall, I don’t have any complaints about the defensive corps. Kylington and Dyukov probably need to stop taking risks (I counted a few fast breaks for the Jets while they were on the ice), but otherwise, no real concerns yet.

Star of the game

We’re going with Dillon Dube, who posted an amazing 88 CF% at 5v5 with 20% OZS. Fun fact, he didn’t record a single 5v5 corsi against until there was 6:39 left in the second period. He was almost perfect, save for being on the ice when Winnipeg scored (though he had zero hand in that).

For tonight

The Flames released their lines while this was being written. D’oh! I have thoughts anyways.

  • I’d like to see the aforementioned Dube get time with Tkachuk. I’d also argue for Lomberg with Tkachuk, but that could lead to some blood being spilled.
  • The Mangiapane-Lomberg-Tuulola line did a lot of good work despite being given tough defensive minutes. Two members of that line scored a goal, and all were on the ice for at least two. I think they should get offensive zone time tonight, because they were dazzling against the Jets.
  • Another invite of intrigue, Brayden Burke, slots in on the fourth line with Aagaard and Smith. Very curious to see what he can do, and hopefully, he can work his way up to the upper lines.
  • Kanzig had some sort of offensive edge last night, but will be subbed off for Stepan Falkovsky, a man of equal height but greater offensive acumen. He’s being paired with another offensive-defenceman in Kenney Morrison, so hopefully there’re some fireworks there.
  • I’d like to see Matt Phillips move up to the first line. I felt he would be a more dynamic option than Austin Carroll, who seemed to be the hanger-on for Jankowski and Tkachuk.

All that being said, the Flames are back at it again in Edmonton tonight at 8:30. See y’all then!

  • McRib

    “Another invite of intrigue, Brayden Burke, slots in on the fourth line with Aagaard and Smith. Very curious to see what he can do, and hopefully, he can work his way up to the upper lines.”

    Whhhhhaaaaatttt this is slightly disappointing, Brayden Burke is in tough to prove himself playing with those two all night, hope this changes considering Burke is primarily a high-end setup man. Calgary really hasn’t paired Burke in a favourable role at all so far this summer, in the developmental camp he was playing with two invitees who aren’t here. If he can produce with those two he should be signed on the bench following the goal, although Aagaard was decent last night and Smith isn’t Kanzig bad. The Flames must have a fairly good read on Burke already, because last year Nick Schneider didn’t get a ton of game time either and he was signed following camp, I wonder if the Flames are sheltering him on purpose from other teams here as any club is free to sign him at this point in the summer. I mean the kid put up 109 points in only his second WHL season he should be a no brainer to sign, but I thought he was a no brainer to be drafted as well.

  • OKG

    christian tiberi

    I’d like to see the aforementioned Dube get time with Tkachuk. I’d also argue for Lomberg with Tkachuk, but that could lead to some blood being spilled.

    Haha classic CTibs. Using a one-game sample size (a top-to-bottom clinic at that) to argue an 18 year old Dube is already a more useful centre-iceman than Jankowski, plus “arguing” for an ECHLer to centre Tkachuk’s line.

    Still bitter about how we didn’t get that compensation 2nd round pick, it seems.

    • What in the sweet hell are you talking about

      I said Dube was the player of the game. This was based on the fact that he had nearly 90CF% with 22% zone starts. That’s pretty good by anyone’s standards. I didn’t make any further projection, and I also didn’t make any comparisons. I didn’t say a single negative thing about Jankowski and yet you found the need to make this comment.

      You’re allowed to like Jankowski, and you’re allowed to disagree with the authors here (even in articles that do not say a single negative thing about Jankowski) but check your persecution complex at the door please. It’s unnecessary.

      • OKG

        Dube’s stats were fantastic. Maybe he was even the player of the game, though I would give that to Culkin. But given your history you are not going to get the benefit of the doubt from me when you make a claim clearly suggesting one of the better players in the game himself be taken off a successful line for an ECHLer.

        • Once again, where was I being negative about Jankowski? I think a speedy, skilled dude like Dube would work well with Tkachuk. I would also think another agitator would be, at the very least, a fun option especially against the hated rivals. I didn’t justify either of those options by saying that “they’re better than Jankowski” or “because Jankowski sucks.” I didn’t even say that the Tkachuk-Janko-Carroll line was bad (except for Carroll, and I felt the way to fix that would be to put Phillips in his spot, not move Jankowski), I just felt that switching things up would be a fun option in a pre-preseason prospect tournament. Janko would get to play with Mangiapane and Tuulola in this scenario, which isn’t at all a downgrade. You seem to think him not being on the first line in meaningless game of the season #2 is tantamount to him being exiled and traded.

          If I say something that is without a doubt negative about Jankowski, you have the absolute right to comment about it. Until then, keep your “benefit of the doubt” stuff to yourself.

      • cberg

        Christian, sounds like you’re being a little sensitive. Regardless of how you ranked them, by your own hard work and data, virtually EVERY Flame had a very good to great game. It’s pretty drastic to start pushing massive changes based on small Corsi changes, forget who the players are.

        Let’s all hope we can do the same tonight against what appears to be a better team.

  • L13

    It’s awesome that you tracked this for us, thank you! Very happy with the Dubé line. Hopefully they can create more goals and get noticed by the organisation.

    Also I echo the hope expressed elsewhere in the comments that the Flames have already decided to extend Burke a contract offer.

  • FLT

    I wasn’t expecting analysis like this, much appreciated Christian. And no you’re not crazy, those comments make no sense.

    Only one game but some great results against a strong group of jets prospects.