Young Stars Fancy Stats: Game Two

Well that was something. The Flames dropped an overtime odd one to the rival Shelbyville Oilers last night by the score of 4-3. Here’s what the fancy stats had to say about last night’s effort.

Data is here, to spare you from the huge amount of tables.

General Usage Notes

  • Huska still didn’t play with his lines, but he did play with the timing. Instead of rolling four as he did in the previous game, he started playing his bottom six more often at the expense of the first line. Whether Jankowski was tired from having to play in every special teams occasion (which was pretty much the entire second period), or whether Huska was punishing Tkachuk and Carroll for their undisciplined play, the first line didn’t play a whole lot after the second.
  • Which was probably for the better. The first liners came out firing at will in the first period – not a single corsi against for 19-77-62 at 5v5 – but died down after. At 5v5, they did all put up a 63.64 CF%, but zone starts nearly 30-40% easier than their peers. They looked great together, but once again, I felt a little underwhelmed with the results. Even though Tkachuk scored, you really expected that they should’ve scored one more.
  • This is slightly concerning considering that every other line produced well regardless of circumstances. 88-56-75 got better as the night wore on, becoming the de facto first line by the third period. 60-59-47 were driving possession as always. What’s definitely on view this Young Stars tournament is simply the depth the Flames have at all prospect positions now. It’s looking good.
  • The fourth line were the miracle workers. While their circumstances didn’t change (besides the score), they were able to move the puck and score the two goals that dragged the game into overtime. I’m not sure what got into them, as they looked barely alive in the first.
  • Defensively, the money pair was Kylington-Dyukov, though their luck was backwards. They both posted over 60 CF% with 10% OZS. The difference came in the goal totals, as Kylington was on the ice for two Flames’ goals and three Oilers goals. Dyukov the opposite, on the ice for all three Flames goals and just one Oilers goal.
  • I liked Stepan Falkovsky tonight. Don’t know why.
  • The powerplay can’t score at all for reasons that I can’t fathom right now. The team passes the eye test, keeps the puck in the zone, finds open lanes, and shoots. The problem is probably that they’re missing the net by wide margins.
  • If you want to take away some positives, all Flames goals came at 5v5.

Star of the Game

I’m going to go off the board here and select Roman Dyukov. He was on for all three Calgary goals, and hit over 60 CF% and FF% with just 10% offensive zone starts. I don’t know how they found this guy, but he’s looking good. It’s pretty easy to see why they subbed him in late instead of Riley Bruce.

For next time

  • We have yet to see Riley Bruce, Nick Schneider, Aaron Hyman, Morgan Klimchuk (injury status pending), Justin Doucet, and Mathieu Sevigny this tournament. Some, most, or all of them might slot in against Vancouver, which would probably make it the gongshow of the tournament (I still have Calgary winning).
  • Huska: scramble the lines. Just for curiosity’s sake. How would Tuulola look with Tkachuk? Would Kylington and Andersson be a good pairing? It’s the Young Stars tournament, who cares if you win.
  • Also, scramble up the powerplay and penalty killing. It can’t hurt, it’s just Vancouver.
  • There’s no decision yet about who’s in net for Monday. I really don’t have a preference, but getting another look at Tyler Parsons would be cool. He was almost perfect, minus one gaffe (which was really the skater’s fault).

Be back here Monday at four for the final Flames Young Stars game this year!

  • JMK

    Is elite prospects correct that Roman Dyukov is playing for Stockton this year? Did he sign a contract?

    Edit: Just checked the original roster announcement and see he has an AHL contract.

  • Baalzamon

    Still don’t understand why people keep praising Culkin. He’s fine defensively but as soon as the Flames have the puck he’s a complete liability. I really don’t know what would possess anyone to use him on the power play at all, much less the first unit. The only player more over-utilized than him is Carroll.

  • Kevin R

    Is it me or is Klimchuk always injured at some point of every year?Beginning to think if there is any perceived value to another team & it’s a way to dump Smid off on Arizona with Klimchuk for a 3rd or package him with Wideman, I would do it. He has fallen on our depth charts & his body doesn’t look like it will hold up to the rigours of hockey. & don’t get me wrong, I think any kid has to have talent to get to this level where he’s at.

  • piscera.infada

    On a few defensive performances:

    I was incredibly impressed with Falkovsky. For a big man, he has some real puck skills. He’s not fast, but his skating is smooth, and he moves laterally really well. I definitely think there’s something there.

    Kylington is ridiculous. He controls the game in a few different ways. He’s a threat, he pushes the pace, and he is able to completely change the flow of the game from a shift to shift basis. Yes, he needs to be a bit more restrained at times. But overall, he might just be one of those players that you’re going to have to give him some license to play “his game”. I think as his AHL season goes on, we’ll all learn that his positives really outweigh his negatives.

    I have been mostly nonplussed with Andersson. I don’t know if he’s playing tentatively, or if he doesn’t really care, but he seems to be playing lackadaisically. He makes a good first pass, his positioning is generally great, but he doesn’t seem to be that same kind of pace changing type that Kylington does. I’m not sure it’s fair to compare the two, but it’s been happening for the better part of the offseason, and frankly, I’m not sure that when you watch both play, you can make a case for Andersson in terms of consistent impact on the game. Still love me some Phat Ras, but I just expected more.

    • Trevy

      Actually came out to Penticton to see these games live. I have to agree about Falkovsky. For a seventh round pick, he’s going to be a great gem in the future. He’s definitely raw but has a undeniable skill and is smart with the puck. Doesn’t hit much considering his size but doesn’t really need to.

      Kylington is amazing to watch.. Has very slick moves and loves to join the rush. Unfortunately gets caught at times but these things can be corrected. Is definitely ahead of the curve compared to Andersson. Speaking of which, it is unfair to compare the two where Andersson is definitely more physical. He does look slow out there considering he supposedly dropped weight and is in better shape, but I think he’s one of those players that gets better with each passing game.

      Dyukov is straight up an all rounded defenseman. Doesn’t stand out in any particular faucet of his game, just does all the little things well. Smart player that is certainly not a liability in any situation. Great pick up IMO.

      Others that stood out…Tkachuk ( for good and bad reasons). Undeniable talent but maybe trying to stand out a bit too much in this tournament. If he wants to make the NHL, he’ll definitely need to dial it in a bit and not take so many hurtful penalties. Otherwise, outstanding player that will look amazing alongside Bennett! Jankowski continues to impress with his hockey IQ. Tuuolola is another diamond in the ruff. Great strength and shot. Lomberg is the Tasmanian devil on skates. Love to watch this guy fly around. Not only does he hit everything in sight but also has speed to burn and some good skill. Aargard another one that stood out for me. Physical, good shot and smart. Dube, Burke, Mangiapanne all had good games thus far. Carroll being physical which was nice to see. Hunter was actually really good in the first game believe it or not and wasn’t too bad in the second game. Didn’t lose that fight as much as what you may have seen on tv. Had more punches and really just went down with the momentum. Did definitely take a couple himself, but not one sided.

      Lastly, Parsons is quick and going to rise up the goaltending ranks fast! Very solid except for that one little mistake. Macdonald, well um, not great. Very tentative, lacked confidence, he even let in a very soft wrister on warm ups that made a few of us laugh then cringe at the same time. Needs a lot more time and games to get his mojo back!

      Off to see Winn vs Van soon… If anyone wants to know about any other Flames I missed, let me know.

    • cberg

      Falkovsky did look good, though a bit tentative which I’ll give him a pass for as this was his first game.

      Kylington definitely a game-breaker but also risky. Overall I love him but he needs to continue his defensive-side progression and the right partner will be key.

      Andersson solid in almost all ways, but he seems to want to slow down play which is just the opposite of Kylington. I need to see more before I’m convinced on him. If the Flames end up thinking he has a conditioning/? Other issues he could well be an attractive trade chip. Maybe he just needs a wake-up call….?

      • piscera.infada

        Just to clarify my point on Andersson. He’s not poor, and I wouldn’t give up on him. There is definitely a player there. I said all offseason that it wasn’t fair to compare him to, let alone have loftier expectations for him than, Kylington. As I’ve said countless times, Andersson is a player I have liked for a very long time. I just expected more than I’ve seen in two games. I don’t know, that may be part of the issue though. He’ll get it together, and he’ll be a good player this season in the AHL.

        Where I do think the comparison to Kylington is reasonable, is as a rudimentary illustration of the respective ceilings of the two players. Andersson is solid all around. We know he has offensive upside. He’s actually pretty safe insofar as he decides that he wants to be an NHL player–this is a huge year for him, he needs to learn how to be a pro. Kylington, on the other hand has that explosive top-end game breaking talent. It may not be a de facto surety that he’ll hit that ceiling, but you see the glimpses and those glimpses give you goosebumps.

        This is a tournament where it’s a good decision not to read too much (if anything, really) into it. It’s fun because it’s the first taste of Flames hockey this season, but I fairly certain that outside of obvious issues and try-out players, it’s largely inconsequential from an evaluation stand point over-and-above the “oh he looks pretty good”.

    • Derzie

      In other words: flashy & terrible = good. Boring and solid = bad. Got it. Oliver is a dumpster fire right now. He thinks he’s playing shinny. Having skill to wow people is of no value if you make a mistake every second try.

  • OKG

    The powerplay can’t score at all for reasons that I can’t fathom right now. The team passes the eye test, keeps the puck in the zone, finds open lanes, and shoots. The problem is probably that they’re missing the net by wide margins.

    No shooters among the forwards. Too much focus on passing to the point, and then failing to screen/deflect whatever the point man (Kylington) gets on net.

    If I was drawing up their PP, I would set up Mangiapane as the bumper and Tkachuk on the right side, both guys finding space to one-time it. Have Jankowski roam primarily as a net front guy, Kylington at point, and then get a right shot skill guy (Phillips) run a cycle with another forward (Janko or Eatbread) to shift the opponent’s D. Keep the puck deep not at the point. Crash the net don’t just loft point shots.

    As is, I don’t think it passes the eye test. Very stagnant with everyone standing around.