Flames Weekly Prospect Update: yikes

Two weeks ago, I brought you the plight of the Stockton Heat, who had only won a handful of games in this new year. It hasn’t gotten much better. Last week, they scored one goal in three games. Yikes.

Last week, fancy table

Forwards

  • That one goal was scored by Austin Carroll, the least likely forward to score a goal.
  • There’s kind of only one reason the Heat are doing so bad: they suck. Since the calendar flipped over, the team has been outshot all but once. Of the other nine, you could only really consider two of those shot-battle losses a result of score effects.
  • All of this is PDO payback for way earlier in the season, when the goalies saved everything and everyone else was shooting 20%. It’s going to be interesting to see where the prospects find themselves at the end of the season, because a lot of the positive trends are looking false by now.
  • I’m curious about Tim Harrison. His counting numbers aren’t great, but everyone else on Colgate is worse. He’s a huge chunk of the offence there, and with a lack of right handed wingers in Stockton (assuming Linden Vey and Matt Frattin move on next offseason, there’s just Carroll and Hunter Smith), he could get a shot at the end of Colgate’s season.
  • The Mitchell Mattson fanclub (of which I am the founder and only member) got good news this week, as the big forward scored three goals this past week. He’s a key component of the Bloomington offence, second in total points and tied for second in goal scoring.
  • Now his real test is next year at UND. Being good in the USHL at 18 isn’t a tough task, so let’s hold off the real hype until next year.
  • Matt Phillips: four more points this week. Third in WHL primary points, both at all strengths and 5v5. He’s nuts.

Defenders

  • Ryan Culkin got brought back up to Stockton, but he is still having a tough time finding a way into the lineup.
  • Stepan Falkovsky, pictured above, went off this past week, scoring four goals and adding two assists in Adirondack. He’s probably going to be forced into a middle pairing role in Stockton next year, where we’ll be able to get a better look at the big Belorussian.
  • Keegan Kanzig isn’t on Adirondack’s roster, but hasn’t played for Stockton in a while. I don’t know if he’s injured or just a 7D. My bet is injury, as Culkin is up and subbed in for Kenney Morrison. Usually, that’s what Kanzig does.

Goalies

  • For the first time in a long time, Nick Schneider’s SV% went up. It is now 0.891.
  • Tyler Parsons is now fourth in the OHL with regards to adj.GSAA. He’s been particularly strong as of late, which brings us to…

January Prospect of the Month

Tyler Parsons! He’s been incredibly consistent over the past month. Over seven January games, he’s only allowed fourteen goals. His SV% this month in .943, with the lowest being .911 in a weird 7-6 game against Niagara. 

Since we are talking about the month as a whole, I feel it is a good time to bring up his incredibly strong performance against a better Canadian team that peppered shots on him during the WJC gold medal game. Kent said it way back when, but the Flames are truly looking at a blue-chipper here.

  • redwhiteblack

    The Heat’s offence has dried up completely. Some promising starts by numerous prospects all now struggling. That’s disappointing to say the least.

  • cjc

    Hmm… Not good, especially for the likes of Mangiapane, Jankowski, Kylington and Andersson. I would say that the exodus of vets last year means young guys have been thrust into big roles too fast, but they have Vey, Frattin, etc.

    • DangleSnipeCelly

      Goaltending in particular… not one mention of Gillies in this thing. I don’t watch any Heat games but aside from the lack of scoring, the goaltending of late has looked awful, at least on paper.

  • buts

    With Agostino leading the “A” in scoring as well as the poor performance of some talented draft picks i.e. Poirier,you have to look at the coach and assess “what’s going on?”

    • everton fc

      Agsotino’s still not getting called up. A lot of guys produce in the “A” never make it to the NHL.

      As for Poirier… He’s simply a bust. Simple as that.

      The Harrison commentary in the original piece is both interesting and sad. To this fan, our prospect pool is awful thin, especially in the forward ranks. Whose to blame? Give this some thought…

      • Parallex

        Blame?… No one.

        Your farm system is going to look weak in parts year after year if you’re taking your top pick and going straight to the NHL as the Flames have for the past 4 years.

        Some words to live by… try to fix the problem, not the blame.

        • Jumping Jack Flash

          The Heat have Definately hit a dry spell. I first noticed it with Mangiapane who has scored one empty net goal in the last month. Both Andersson and Kjillington have gone cold now even Janko is feeling it. Both goalies have cooled off and continue to face far more shots than a hey should.

          I don’t typically read a lot int ASGs but Janko represented the Pacific on Monday and the team lost all 3 games and only scored 6-7 goals in total. It appears the Heat are average in the weakest division. I still think we have 6prospects that will play in the NHL: Gillies, Janko, Andersson, Kjillington, Mangiapane, and Shinkaruk.

  • Not a First Tier Fan

    Yeesh… And I thought the prospect cupboard was bare up north. Not trying to troll here – but that roundup looks a little dismal other than the blazing star of Parsons. (Who did look amazing at the WJC…)

    Supposed to be a shallow draft this year but maybe Treliving can find some diamonds in the rough. Looks like Calgary needs a bunch more defense prospects – based on history only one out of every few drafted defenceman ever make it to the show.

    • Parallex

      To the extent that you can draft for position I agree (that is to say take the best player available… but perhaps allow position to be the primary tie-breaker).

      There is no more highly sought after asset then young top 4 calibre NHL defensemen. I don’t anticipate the Flames drafting at a talent tier where there will be a clear cut talent demarcation between one player from the next so grabbing an outsized crop of defenders makes sense to me.

      ______________________________________________

      For some reason I have a fascination with Stepan Falkovsky so I’m happy to see him doing well. Maybe he can be a Andrej Sustr for us. Sure would be nice if one of the obligatory coke-machine picks actually turned into something good at the NHL level.

    • McRib

      The Flames hit an absolute homerun last year in Adam Fox (3 assists in that Gold Medal game as well, once team USA finally took the shackles off and gave him the proper amount of ice time) most knowledgable Flames fans aren’t worried about the defense situation in the slightest. Fox worst case projects as Stéphane Robidas type for the next 10-15 years, although his 1.15 PPG as a true freshman suggest he has further upside, after all Fox’s numbers at this point are already substantially better than a Kevin Shattenkirk (0.525 PPG as a Freshman). I follow the NHL Draft incredibly close and the Flames were a Top. 3 performing team easily at the draft last year.

      Tkachuk’s performance so far aside: Fox, Parsons, Dube, Falkovsky, Phillips, Mattson, etc will also produce another 2-3 impactful NHLers. I’m willing to go on record and say that the 2016 draft will go down in Flames history as one of our best drafts ever (second paragraph was more focused on critical Flames fans here and not as a response to you).

  • Not a First Tier Fan

    Yikes. Maybe those people trashing my post can point out where I’m wrong… The best defensive prospects the Flames have are Andersson and Kylington, aren’t they? If those two aren’t helping Stockton win games then how would you expect them to transition to the Flames?

    Who’s left then – Adam Fox? You might have something with Falkovsky but like the writer of the article pointed out he’s a long ways away.

    For sure Calgary might have a solid D right now but who’s in the pipeline for when the vets start to show their age? Considering Jokipakka is being used prominently maybe this is an even more pressing concern than that…

    Trash me because I’m an Oiler fan if you want but that seems a bit like sticking your head in the sand and ignoring an obvious issue to me.

    • RickT

      Rafikov has been looking good in the K recently. Falkovsky is solid. Kylington and Andersson were killing it up until just before the Christmas break (a huge portion of the offense in October / November, iirc). The defense prospects are fine.

      Our forward prospects are doing alright. Mangiapane is adjusting to the pros (and he has been up and down which is expected). Phillips is still tearing up the Dub. Jankowski was even doing well for a prolonged period of time.

      Sometimes teams just cool down.

      And, of course, our first round from this past draft is doing a pretty good job of imposing his will on the NHL – with his sub 40% OSZ and 55+% CF.

      We will be fine.

      • Not a First Tier Fan

        Yeah I agree you might have a solid pick in Falkovsky but Rafikov seems to be a long shot to me. (sorry I had to look him up…) Hard to say with him because even though he was a 2013 pick he’s never been to a Flames camp yet. Always tough to say with these Russian players how they’ll adapt to the North American game.

        As far as Andersson and Kylington go – if you show signs of periodic drop off in the minors it doesn’t bode well for consistency in the NHL – which is at a whole different level entirely. But maybe you’re right – it could be just a brief glitch.

        Anyways – here’s hoping the Flames don’t end up looking for top line defenceman in a few years. It’s always a lot easier to develop these folks from inside the organization than it is to trade for them or pick up one on the cheap in free agency…

    • One bad month has never meant the end for any prospect, especially defencemen. We can expect to see defensive prospects make the jump around 22-23. Kylington and Andersson are 19 and 20 respectively. I’m not very concerned despite an incredibly poor January

    • Parallex

      “Trash me because I’m an Oiler fan if you want but that seems a bit like sticking your head in the sand and ignoring an obvious issue to me.”

      How do I put this delicately… coming into a thread declaring yourself a fan of the Oilers and then slagging an aspect of the Flames organization (regardless of the validity of the slag in question) kind of comes off a bit as troll-like behaviour. That will get you trashes. To be clear I don’t think your a troll but I could see how others might not appreciate framing a discussion of Flames prospects as it relates to the Oilers.

      It’s like my dad always used to say “It’s not what you say but how you say it”.

      • Not a First Tier Fan

        So not much room for deferring views in here eh? Sorry – I always hated echo chambers. I’ll keep posting Flames related comments and you can keep trashing away. S’all good.

    • FlamesFanOtherCity

      Every team goes through struggles. I wonder how much Huska’s game plan still resembles Hartley’s. That was an unsustainable model.

      Up till this stretch, Andersson and Kylington were doing quite well, especially with Andersson being a first year pro. It takes time to develop them properly. I don’t worry about developing prospects, if its being done right. Next year we could bring in some UFA’s or cast offs from team with little to zero cap. Not a big deal.

      The forwards struggling is a minor concern. Still have three 1st rounders sitting there, so they might still take some time to become 3rd liners or higher. No point in using them for 4th line fodder. All in good time.

  • Just.Visiting

    I guess that I’m number two in the Mitchell Mattson fanclub.

    Just from the little blurb I saw at the time of the draft, I really like the size and hands. Whether he pans out or not is a different thing, but definitely worth a shot at that stage of the draft.

    Falkovsky very late looks like a good move too.

    I enjoy this series.