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Photo Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

FlamesNation prospect wrap-up: Andrew Mangiapane

The Flames have depth scoring issues. Thankfully, they can be fixed for free.

Andrew Mangiapane established himself as one of the AHL’s best players this year at the age of 21. He’s likely going to be a full time Flame next season, based on his stellar season this year and stellar season in general. The kid has had back to back 20 goal, 20 assist seasons, and is probably going to get a major opportunity to prove he can do it in the NHL next year.

Background

An undervalued asset since day one, Mangiapane wasn’t even selected in the OHL draft, and had to wait until his second year of eligibility to get picked up by a team. To add salt in the wound, NHL teams weren’t even interested in taking a late round flyer on him after a productive-ish draft season (51 points in 68 games) with the Barrie Colts, despite an OHL first All-Rookie team nod.

But he continued plugging away and bounced back with an outstanding 104 point season, doubling his production from the year before. Again, his productive season wasn’t given the respect it deserved, and Mangiapane tumbled down to the sixth round despite being ranked somewhere in the third or fourth round by scouting services.

To prove it wasn’t a fluke, Mangiapane came back with a 106 point season in his final OHL year despite serving an eight game suspension in the middle of the season. His professional debut with the Stockton Heat was also very productive, as he picked up 20 goals enroute to a 41 point season, which is impressive considering he fell on a 20 game cold streak in the middle of the year.

2017-18 story

Mangiapane began his season in the AHL on an offensively explosive line with Mark Jankowski and Garnet Hathaway. When his two linemates found their way to the NHL, Mangiapane remained and kept playing like no one left. He didn’t go a game without a point until a month had passed in the season, having picked up 16 points in 10 games to that point.

He picked up 17 points in the next 18 games before he was recalled in December to replace the injured Kris Versteeg. Given the Flames’ left wing depth at the time, he could only find a spot on the fourth line. In ten games with the club, he put up zero points but looked pretty alright. He finished right in the black with a 50CF% in the NHL.

Mangiapane was reassigned to the AHL at trade deadline, finishing the season with 13 points in his last 11 games before shoulder surgery ended his season a month early. The Heat finished the year 5-9 in his absence, scoring two goals or less in seven of those games.

The numbers

GP G A P Primary points 5v5 Points 5v5 Primary points NHLe
AHL 39 21 25 46 34 28 21 45.46

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Mangiapane’s NHLe was about the same as it was during his OHL years, which could be read as him being just as dominant in the AHL as he was in the OHL. If you remember how dominant he was in the OHL, you can get a good picture of what he was like this season.

A key difference between his production in the OHL versus the AHL is that Mangiapane had 100 point producers alongside him on the OHL. That wasn’t true in 2017-28. Mangiapane finished first in Stockton scoring, six points ahead of Morgan Klimchuk while having played 23 fewer games.

Mangiapane was tops in almost every category on the Heat for the year. Goals, points, primary points, 5v5 points, 5v5 primary points, NHLe, estimated P/60, etc. This is before you factor in the fact that Mangiapane played the least games of the regular AHL Flames prospects with 39. When you break things down to a per game basis, Mangiapane leads in every category. In some categories, it’s by significant margins.

Mangiapane was involved in 38.38% of all goals, nearly 16% higher than the next highest contributor, and 28.36% of those contributions were primary contributions, just over 12% better than second place. For 5v5 goals, he was involved in 37.85% of goals (14% higher than #2) and the primary contributor on 28.38% (just under 11% higher than #2). No matter which way you cut it, the Heat were Mangiapane’s team this past season.

Comparables

Methodology explained here. Mangiapane’s full data can be found here.

Players who have had comparable seasons to Mangiapane often make the NHL and become strong middle-six performers. Similar producers at even strength generally make the NHL full time at an 88% clip, scoring around 0.53 PPG throughout their careers. That number dips a little bit when you only consider 5v5 performances, where similar players have made the NHL around 55% of the time, but scoring remains the same at 0.52 PPG.  However, when you consider players who were similar at both AS and 5v5, 100% of them went on to become NHLers, scoring at 0.49 PPG.

Those are all extremely good numbers for an AHL forward. AHL success can often times be misleading, but Mangiapane’s success in the league lines up well with some of the league’s better graduates. His intelligence and offensive instincts should carry over well to the NHL, although his defensive game will need a bit of work.

The future

If there’s a lock for someone to make the jump, it has to be Mangiapane. He’s proven that he’s too good for the AHL. There are few players who performed at his level at his age, and pretty much all of them went on to have pretty productive NHL careers. For a team that needs scoring, it’s a promising to have a kid with a scoring pedigree readily available to you.

The problem is that LW is the deepest position on the Flames, but given Mangiapane’s resume, it’s going to be hard to deny him a spot. I’m sure they’ll find a way to keep him on the team. (Does he play RW? Maybe he’ll need to adapt.) He’s too good not to be there.

Previously

Brett Pollock | Emile Poirier | Austin Carroll | Morgan Klimchuk | Hunter Shinkaruk | Spencer Foo | Rasmus Andersson | Tyler Wotherspoon | Oliver Kylington | Josh Healey & Adam Ollas Mattsson | Mitchell Mattson | Hunter Smith | Mason McDonald | Tyler Parsons | Juuso Valimaki | Nick Schneider | Adam Ruzicka | Matthew Phillips | D’Artagnan Joly | Glenn Gawdin | Zach Fischer | Dillon Dube | Filip Sveningsson | Eetu Tuulola | Adam Fox | Linus Lindstrom | Pavel Karnaukhov & Rushan Rafikov

    • freethe flames

      Actually he got GG’d. He played well for Huska and had he not gotten injured he likely carries the Heat into the play offs unless he was back in the NHL.

    • The Beej

      Yes he did get Huska’d – developed into a good forward ready to graduate to the bigs.

      Huska had done great with D prospects and has actually done quite well with the sparse amount of talent at forward he has had to with.

      Your criticism of Huska is absolutely 100% baseless and does not relate to reality. Compare Huska with othef AHL coaches. He had graduated quite a few now.

      But thats ok. I dont expect any rational explanation for your baseless opinions.

      We all know what you would do if you were GM. Trade vets like Backlund for peanuts.. just like the oilers. If you were our GM we would be worse than the oilers.

    • Rockmorton65

      Gee, Wally. Your head must have exploded when Huska was promoted. I mean, that’s the team telling him that he EXCEEDED expectations at his previous job.

  • freethe flames

    Maybe he is the guy who can make the jump and play RW like Ferland? Maybe the Flames experiement and have him play LW and move Tkachuk to the rightside? Maybe he plays LW with Backs? Although in his time up with the big club he did not produce I thought he made the 4th line better; he skates well enough to play in the NHL he plays hard enough to be in the NHL and has the skill set to play in the top 9 personally I think he closer than Foo and if he had been given the same linemates as Foo had when he was called up he would have produced.

  • The Fall

    I have no idea what the lines will look like next season. YeastMode deserves a long chance in an offensive roll with an experienced centreman. I see him topping out in a Versteeg style roll.

  • Fat Tony

    Just read on hockey buzz that the flames are “leading the charge” on acquiring Jeff Skinner, which I don’t mind, however, I thought rebar wasn’t big on that guy? Will Skinner even be happy playing for him again after being given no minutes throughout the season?

  • Kzak

    Put him on Janko’s LW, trade Bennett for the highest draft pick possible (or a couple second or third rounders) and for the love of Orr, get a RW for the top line.

  • Garry T

    Call Denver! Watched a kid 6’3 215 pounds right winger, Finn by name of Mikko Rantanen , young guy, has the look of a power forward and can he ever score some nice goals. Belongs in YYC with Monny and Johnny. Doesn’t take any guff from anyone either.

    • supra steve

      Rantanen would be a great add. 21yr old, L shot RW, 84 pts in 81 games.
      How’s he going to play with Johnny and Monny though, as you’d have to move one of them to get Rantanen out of COL?

  • Baalzamon

    Mangiapane is finally starting to get the recognition around the hockey world he deserves. I happened to come across a discussion on twitter a while ago about who will be the player next season to graduate from the AHL to the NHL and make an impact. A good number of people (including many who had absolutely no connection with the Flames such as Rangers fans) mentioned Mangiapane.

  • Jeremy

    Mangy need to be a 4th liner next year for the Flames to succeed.

    The Flames need 2 top 6 forwards, O’Reilly by way of Brodie trade, and Mark Stone, offer sheet.

    Then they could roll lines like…

    Johnny Money Ferly
    Bing ROR Stone
    Benny Backs Frolik
    Mangy Jankow Hathaway

    Fleury when he broke in on the Flames was a 4th liner. Mangy should be the same.

  • freethe flames

    We will never know who BP has called in regards to his quest to get a RHS that can play in our top 6 until something happens. When/if it happens likely half of us will complain and half will start planning a parade route.

    What does this team look like if he can’t find a partner? Is it a playoff caliber team if we have to rely on Foo, Hathaway, Lazar, Brouwer, Ferland and FRolik on the right side? IMO probably not. Would moving Tkachuk or Bennett or Mangiapane to the right side be enough? Maybe!

    • Rockmorton65

      I agree. If BT’s going to do something think it will be a Dougie Hamilton type situation. Comes out of left field and no one can figure out how he did it.

  • Flamethrower

    My two cents worth…1. Forget the high priced UFAs go with your young guys, give them a shot their ready to play hard. 2. I’m ready to read that the Flames have bought out Brouwer! That’s it.

    • freethe flames

      So what would your team look like? I actually think we could have 3 effective lines with what we have but I’m quite concerned what our 4th line might be like. So looking at what we have and assuming we only sign our own FA here’s how I would try and put our lines together. My first assumption is that none of the 3 first year guys make the team out of training camp although I think they might push if given an opportunity.

      Here’s my line up:
      Johnny/Monny/Foo (although I am not as sold on Foo as many I believe that he did have some chemistry with Johnny and I don’t see him being able to play any other role than a guy who needs to score)

      Tkachuk/Janko/Ferland: This line could be both offensively productive and defensively responsible. It could also physically match up with other teams bigger lines.

      Mangiapane/Backs/Frolik: takes on the defensive role again but also able to produce and creates it’s own offense. I have Magiapane here not because I think he is better than Bennett but because he needs to be put in a place where he is more likely to produce. Bennett I think can do more of the heavy lifting at this point.

      Bennett/Shore/Lazar: given a defensive role and uses it’s speed to create it’s own O against other teams 4th lines. Bennett has to lead this line and once again seems to be stuck with guys who will not help his O. There was a few games last year where I thought Bennett and Lazar created some havoc and looked good together. Hathaway as your 13th forward. You still need an extra forward and IMO it needs to be a center.

      Your D remains almost intact:
      Gio/Hamilton
      Brodie/Hamonic
      Kulak/Anderson
      Stone as the 7th
      Smith backed up Rittich

      If everything went well this team might be able to compete for a bubble position.

      How would others put this team together?

      • ALowry

        Sorry, I disagree with a few things here…
        The main one is that Foo will slot in a the top line. I’d love for it to happen, but him showing he can score a few goals playing with Gaudreau during meaningless games doesn’t fully convince me. Wouldn’t mind testing it out in training camp or preseason though.
        What I’d like to see is just throw Bennett on the top line. I know he’s already messed up in terms of position, so why not just put him there and see how it works. Bennett playing with Shore and Lazar seems like a waste. Yes he has that energetic grinder vibe, but I really think he needs quality linemates. Shore will be a great and serviceable 4th line center, Lazar isn’t great at anything, so Bennett needs to be given more than this. Granted, he also needs to show he deserves it.

        I like Mangiapane with Backs/Frolik. So Monahan/Gaudreau is your 1A line, Backs/Frolik gets the hard matchups, and then you let Tkachuk dominate the other team?

        The defensive pairings look good to me. Really curious to see how that bottom rotation works out, and if we offload Brodie at the draft. Also curious to see how Kylington performs in camp/preseason and if he impresses/wows management/Peters.

        • freethe flames

          Nothing wrong with disagreeing it at least creates a conversation. I am big fan of having four lines that can play and IMO moving Bennett to the first line really weakens that as an option. People here probably think I hate Bennett but I don’t I just see him being more on Back’s timeline than on the fast track to offensive star. The other premise of the exercise was assuming we did not make any changes and had to build the team from within. Personally I still believe BT will move both Brodie and Stone and that the team will see some significant roster changes what that will be is still to be determined. A higher end RHS and 5th center iceman would help this team significantly.

  • Stockton's Finest

    My only concern with Mangiapane is his season ending surgery. I wonder if he will get the Janko treatment and start the season in Stockton as a “conditioning stint”. My hope is he makes the big club and is used properly. Maybe 3rd line? For being as small as he is, he does grind it out in front of the net.

  • Styxx

    Mangiapane would be a great replacement on the second line. Depends if you believe the 2nd line is Backlund’s or Janko’s (Mangiapane is not ready for a prime-time on the 1st line). Usually you have 2 scoring lines plus a checking line …meaning Backlund centers the 3rd line.

    Perhaps it would look like:
    Gaudreau-Monahan-UFA
    Tkachuk-Janko- Mangiapane
    Bennett-Backlund-Frohlich

    The real issue is whether Janko’s line would play well enough defensively to retain 2nd line status…other teams would certainly look to feast on it. Moving Frohlich up with Janko & Tkachuk would perhaps be better, allowing Mangiapane to get lots of minutes with Backlund which would be very benefiical and help balance out the 2nd & 3rd lines

    • freethe flames

      Where do you Ferland? Who would sign as your UFA? What does your 4th line look like and what would be it’s role. IMO it was proven if you want to a contender you have to have a 4th line that can compete and have a role. Does Washington win the cup w/o it’s 4th line?

    • freethe flames

      If you add a UFA to replace Ferland then you have to decide where he goes. Who does he push out of the top nine or does he become a 4th liner? I sometimes wonder what a line of Bennett/a quality center/Ferland would do as 4th line?

      • Styxx

        Ferland drops to the 4th line, his optimal placement is either 3LW or 4LW. He moves up in the event of injury.
        The biggest need is to have a 2nd line that scores but which is defensively responsible and doesn’t need to be sheltered – 2/3 of the 3M line (Frohlich & Tkachuk) should provide offence yet be defensively responsible.
        Backs anchors a defensive 3rd line with some speed & skill provided by Bennett and Mangiapane.

        Gaudreau-Monahan-UFA (Neal/Pacioretty/Kessel/Bjorkstrand)
        Tkachuk-Janko- Frohlich/Mangiapane
        Bennett-Backlund-Mangiapane/Frohlich
        Ferland-Shore/Ryan-Hathaway/Reeves

        • freethe flames

          i’m not sure BT will be willing to pay term and money for Neal and I doubt Columbus is going to let Bjorkstrand walk. What would you trade for Patches or Kessel? The one guy I expect the Flames to be in on from your list of additions is Ryan. Reeves is interesting. The team I was trying to build was based upon Flamethrowers desire to not sign any UFA and build from within. Your squad either has at least 1 trade and 2 UFA’s and I’m not sure either of your trades is likely.

        • freethe flames

          IMO Ferland is much better than you seem to give credit for and I could see he and Tkachuk being the perfect bookends for Janko. Both are physical, both can shoot the puck and both are defensively responsible. Janko can do these things as well and being drawn into battle will be good for him. As the season progressed I saw some significant improvement in his battle level. I fully expect him to be bigger and stronger this year.

    • Snitch

      I fully agree with this. We really don’t know how good Tkachuk is until he plays with our best players. It’s time to give him a long look there.

      Putting Mangi with Backs and Fro only makes sense. Decent quality players who can be responsible defensively and have the ability to get the puck to Mangi so he can score.

      That leaves Ferland to play with Janko and Benny. I think that line could have a ton of potential too.

  • freethe flames

    With less than a week to the draft it is pretty quiet on the Flames front and that is when BT does his best work. Will he be able to move Stone which in many ways the most obvious move because of the progress of Andersson. Will he move another D (most presume Brodie) to add a top 6 RHS? Or does he dip into FA to find a temporary solution to the top 6. Does he dip into FA to add depth to the forwards? Maybe he can’t find a trading partner and maybe no one wants to come to Calgary. It would be nice to see something happen.

    • Korcan

      Free agency scares me. There seem to be far more horror stories than success stories that begin with a FA signing. Maybe Tre can look at teams who may be needing to trade an RFA (cap restraints), but then the Flames have to give up something in return.
      The holes aren’t that glaring (apart from RW) and there is some young talent knocking at the door. The more pressing need, IMO, is to strengthen the team identity. I would like a bit more intensity (I.e. Brendan Gallagher). The Flames of 2017/18 were too “nice”. Even the bigger, “tougher” guys (I.e. Ferland, Brouwer, Stone) did not play with much sandpaper. If one could simply flip a switch and have them play with Tkachuk and Hamonic’s edge, I’m not sure Tre would need to do much else. Unfortunately, reality is not so easy.

      • freethe flames

        I understand why FA scares you but if a GM can approach FA with a plan and stick to it then FA does not need to be scary. For the Flames the plan for FA should be to add depth at center and preferably RHS; they should not be looking to add to the core and the minute you sign a FA to more than 2 years you are adding tp the core. There are 3 FA RHS who have numbers that should interest the Flames those being Perron, RNash, and Vanek. The first two will likely want term and money and as soon as either of those things come up you walk away. Vanek has played each of the last 2 years on one year deals at a reasonable cap hit; it he is willing to continue that trend then he would be worth talking to.

        The centers the Flames should be talking to are D Ryan and Beagle; neither should be too expensive and neither should be expecting too much term. If they want either to be a 4/5th depth center again you need to walk away.

        Would I like Gallagher as a guy to trade for absolutely but what is the cost? If a Brodie for Gallagaher deal could(it would likely need some additional pieces along the way) that would be great.

  • herringchoker

    The only way Mango makes this team is if there’s an opening in our top 9. Otherwise its pointless. This is really a tangly point in Flames history To be honest. Does Tre make a move just to appease the fans desire to make a trade or does he believe the answers are internal. I certainly wouldnt trade Brodie unless the return was there. Of course if you keep Brodie and believe his issues are LD/RD related where do you put him. I think someone has to go to fix that issue. If we bring in a young top 9 forward what do you do…..keep them in the minors like Pourier to rot. Mango and Foo are both close. Both needed to add strength. My assumption is both are. Tre needs to walk a fine line. The season team needs to be able to change to a playoff team. You need more bite in the playoffs. Players like Ferland, Tkuchuk and Bennett are built for that. Mango plays a similar fearless style. I think Mango plays one more year in the AHL on a line with Foo. They absolutely dominate the AHL and force there way into the flames picture.

  • herringchoker

    Here’s an interesting trade……Brodie/Brouwer to Edmonton for Jesse Puliarvi/second/third. Edmonton gets a top 4 defenceman and a leader……Calgary gets a high prospect RIght shot RW and some picks.

    • herringchoker

      This doesnt give the fans there superstar…….yet. Its a win-win trade. You are now able to run talent on our 4th line. Admittingly its a risk. The upside though is huge. I think one move you make is flip Tkuchuk and Ferland.
      Gaudreau Monahan Tkuchuk
      Ferland Backlund Frolik
      Bennett Janko Puliarvi
      Mango Shore/Lazar Foo

      This is a big upside line up made for todays NHL. The only downside is that you just made Edmonton better.

      • herringchoker

        Sorry its Sunday morning, Im on the east coast awake with the dogs. Lots of posts in my head.

        Here’s a thought…..the flames realistically will be trading for a RW for Bennetts line. Thats my belief. Tre made a comment to Bennett that I read saying he needed to use his team mates more. I think that RW needs to be a shooter first. I truely believe the best trade the flames will make this next season was getting rid of Gully. If the Flames play an up tempo north south attack game players like Tkuchuk, Bennett and Ferland should really thrive.

        • freethe flames

          Another dog owner; I’m up in here in cowtown after walking my own alarm clock. The problem that some fans have is that they think we need to hit a homerun in FA or in a trade but in reality it just needs to the the right pieces. One of the great questions for me is what is Bennetts role; what is he as a player? I’m assuming by your post that you think of his line as being he and Janko and that adding the correct RW to that line and things will be good and you know that might work out. I’m a little more skeptical of Bennett than that and think a better pairing would be Tkachuk and Janko and add the RW to that. I would also be completely willing to see a Bennett/Janko/Tkachuk line tried in the preseason. There is lots of possibilities in the top 9 if Bennett finds his mojo, Janko continues to build his game and a guy like Mangiapane or Foo take the next steps; but man that’s a lot of if’s.

          • herringchoker

            Ifs are what make hockey so fun. Vegas is a whole team of if’s. The biggest if is…..how much did Gully affect Bennett. His first season under Hartley showed this kid has got real potential…..especially during the playoffs. Gully’s system wrecked a few players. This is definately a show me season for Bennett. I going to stay optimistic.

    • BlueMoonNigel

      Way too little in return for Brodie. I want actual, not potential for Brodie as I am not convinced that his game has not suddenly fallen off a cliff. He may also have been a victim of Gully’s mad machinations.

      WW’s Brouwer for Kasian trade interests me as much as any deal involving 3rd and 4th liners.

      Lucic to the Flames on a sweetheart deal would be worth exploring.

      Always thought that Iggy to the Oilers late in his Flames’ career made a lot of sense as the Oilers were stacked with youth and directionless leadership.

  • TheWheeze

    Give Mangiapane sheltered minutes? My personal belief, if you need sheltered minutes you are either recovering from injury or you are simply not ready for a Prime Time

    • freethe flames

      Playing with Backs is not sheltered minutes. I would call them developmental opportunities. One could argue that Bennett’s time with Backs was sheltered minutes or Tkachuk’s first year with Back’s were sheltered minutes and I doubt that was the case. What it is properly playing young guys where they can succeed/transition into the NHL. Few first rounders come into the NHL and are asked to carry a line or a team let alone a guy drafted where Mangiapane was.

  • freethe flames

    herringchoker: gosh I hate how this system does not allow conversations to continue; in the old days you did not have to do this. Back to Bennett; as I noted I’m prepared to give him a chance to show his stuff but I’m also comfortable with him being a key component of a tough hard to play against 4th line. I’m a big advocate of having 4 lines that can play. My ideal world would be a top line that truely is dominate offensively and then 3 lines that can play defensively and be able to produce 45+ goals each, a pipe dream I’m sure but that is what I hope for.