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Photo Credit: Sergei Belski

WWYDW: How do you get James Neal going?

James Neal is a scorer, and has been throughout his career. He had 37 points as a rookie; his career high is 81. As a 30-year-old playing for Vegas in the 2017-18 season, he scored 44 points. And never, at any point in his time in the NHL, has he ever failed to hit the 20-goal mark.

The Flames, a team desperately in need of scoring prowess, were a natural fit. Awarded with a five-year, $5.75 million annual average value contract – almost certainly his last big payday – expectations were probably in line for at least 20 goals and 40 points. But through 18 games this season, Neal has just three goals and four points, on pace for 14 and 18: not even close to good enough.

Neal was benched for the entire third period of the Flames’ latest game against the Sharks, a frame in which they were down by just one goal and were never out of it until the final minute. It’s not a good sign, but the team really needs Neal to get going: not just for the sake of justifying the contract and ensuring they don’t let all of that cap space go to waste, but because they need secondary scoring, and Neal should be a leader in that department.

Instead, Neal’s four points to date have him tied for ninth in team scoring, alongside:

  • Sam Bennett, a fourth overall pick who is the epitome of snakebitten.
  • Austin Czarnik, an AHL/NHL tweener who has been scratched for seven of 18 games.
  • Mark Jankowski, a second-year player relegated to fourth line minutes and occasional healthy scratches.
  • TJ Brodie, a defenceman who is fighting to get back to the top of his game.
  • Michael Stone, a defenceman who has also been scratched for seven of 18 games.

Neal has averaged 15:36 a game so far this season, sixth among all forwards on the team. (Everyone above him in minutes has also scored more.) His 42:31 total on the powerplay is fifth among Flames forwards, but he’s gone point-less on the man advantage (all four forwards above him in ice time have ranged from six to eight powerplay points).

However: Neal has 10 shots on the powerplay, which puts him in line with the four forwards above him. He has 42 shots on net total, fifth on the Flames (but behind his pacing from the previous season), but just a 7.1 shooting percentage: well below his career 12.0%. If he’d been shooting at his career average, he’d have five goals: not the best, but at least an improvement.

His underlying numbers all reflect positively, no worse than 50% in any stat at 5v5 except for goals for, where he’s 42.11%. His present offensive zone start ratio, at 50%, is the lowest he’s had to date in his career.

Neal hasn’t found a home on any Flames line in particular, however. His most common linemate by far has been Sam Bennett, with Mikael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk rounding things out. After those three, you dig into bottom six forwards Derek Ryan, Dillon Dube, and Mark Jankowski (the latter two of whom he’s projected to play with next game), before you get to high end offensive players and theorized Neal linemates Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan:

Player TOI w/ CF% w/ Neal CF% w/out Player CF% w/out
Bennett 101:03 53.11 51.95 56.48
Backlund 75:40 57.45 50.17 60.22
Tkachuk 57:13 58.72 50.45 58.98
Ryan 48:24 50.96 53.90 57.62
Dube 41:46 45.21 53.73 54.43
Jankowski 41:31 54.22 54.51 49.69
Gaudreau 34:19 44.64 53.65 53.13
Monahan 33:21 49.21 53.05 51.80

While Neal’s numbers haven’t been inherently bad, there is a worrying pattern starting to form that, among the players he’s spent the most time with, they tend to be better when separated from him. The problem seems to take a different form when it comes to forwards he’s spent less time with: they both end up dragging one another down, though both may perform perfectly fine when separated from one another.

All of this begs the question: just where, exactly, does Neal fit in the Flames’ lineup? He needs to be a scorer, so do you find a way to give him increased offensive zone starts?

Do you try to reunite him with Gaudreau and Monahan to see if they can build on whatever early season falterings they may have had, and is it worth removing Elias Lindholm from what’s been a mostly effective line to date to see if this could work? (Can Lindholm handle his own line, for that matter?)

Do you keep him with the likes of Bennett and Backlund, or has that ship sailed, without much in the way of actual goals coming from it?

If trying him with Monahan again isn’t the answer, does that mean it makes sense to put him back with Ryan or Jankowski instead?

Or do you try Neal alongside Lindholm himself? They’ve only played 19:42 together to date.

If Neal starts finding success, chances are, the entire Flames group will right along with him. So what would you do?

    • Flaming moe

      I don’t think Toronto gives us a 70-80 point rock star for Sam Bennett and his 2 goals and 2 assists lol oh wait throw in Brodie’s 0 goals and 4 assists. Not to mention he’s went -16 in each of his last two seasons.

      Would be trade of the century if BT pulls that one off. Lol

      • everton fc

        Our first in 2019 would be going to Toronto. And I’d move Jankowski, over Bennett. The Leafs have massive cap issues, even if they move Nylander – just go to CapFriendly and see the pain. They have ti sign Matthews and Marner – and Kapanen. And Nylander. They have to decide whether to re-sign, or say goodbye, to Gardiner. Their defence is paper thin – Liljegren and Sandin are not ready. And their goaltending situation is not good, past Anderson – if he goes down, it’s Sparks and Jeff Glass. They are a few injuries away from some real issues. And Horton’s 5.3mill is on the books thru 2019-20.

        They need defence. They need to move some payroll. Nylander would only be worth discussion if he came in at exactly Gaudreau’s salary & term. If they’d take Neal, our 2019 first, and one of our defencive prospects (Kylington’s the only one we really have, in Stockton – I wouldn’t move Andersson, or Valimaki)… And he’d take same salary and term as Gaudreau…

      • HOCKEY83

        first of all he’s not a 70 to 80 point guy until he is. but the Flames even with getting rid of Brodie and Bennett could not afford the salary he’s looking for. also Toronto wants no salary back if they do trade him. they’re looking for at least a first round pick for him. they won’t be able to sign both Marner and Matthews let alone take salary back for Nylander.

  • The GREAT WW

    We finally buy out Brouwer and then immediately get into this disaster?!
    (The Backlund contract is no better but you would never know it reading FN….)

    WW

  • Suck It Steinberg!

    To get Neal going, I’d suggest playin him with some offensive talented players. As mentioned above, playing him with a legitimate, offensive NHL defenceman would be a start. Having Neal play with Backlund is ridiculous. Splitting up Monahan and Lindholm is a start. Why not go with
    Gaudreau Lindholm Neal
    Tkchuck Monahan Bennett
    Dube Backlund Czarnik
    Frolik Janko Ryan

  • Jimmyhaggis

    BT has made another poor free agent signing, why he insists on thinking these older guys can continue to produce when statistics have proven production goes down with age, and particularly faster after age 30.
    Have you also noticed BT always makes a splash on draft day, trade, that also don’t seem to improve the team, smoke and mirrors! Maybe Joel Quennville would make a good GM.

  • Skylardog

    This is on Peters and no one else. Neal was demoted to the third line on opening night. He played with a raw rookie in Dube and a 31 year old veteran that couldn’t set up Skinner in Ryan. He then gets time with Bennett who couldn’t set up Mike Bossy on a regular basis.

    As for Backs, he is the classic case of being able to set up no one. Tkachuk has just one goal at 5v5 with Backlund this season, in 1888 minutes plus! Add in Neal’s 75 minutes and he has set up just one goal playing with 2 of the teams top 4 goal scorers in 250 minutes plus.

    Neal is best at points per 60 with Monahan (3.6) and Gaudreau (3.5). That comes as no surprise as most players will be best with those 2.

    But Gaudreau is also producing best when with Neal (3.5), and Monahan is also near the top with Neal (3.6). Mony is better with Bennett in limited minutes. I threw out players with less than 10 minutes for those stats.

    Gaudreau scores at just 2.19 with Mony, and at 2.29 with Lind.
    Monahan is at 1.95 with Gaudreau, and just 1.53 with Lind.

    In game 1, Monahan scored with assists to JG and Neal in just 4:07 of ice time. They had 5 scoring chances and 1 against. They had 4 HDCF and 0 against. With Lind for 7:45, the line with Mony and JG was -2, with just 3 HDCF and 3 HDCA. They has 7 scoring chances, 4 against.

    The natural move should have been Neal with JG and Mony in game 2, instead, Peters goes back to Lind with them and Neal gets just 34 seconds with the top line.

    This is on Peters. You must put players in a position where they belong and try to get players going. Neal has been handled all wrong.

  • SgtRoadBlock

    we should rest Sam and Janko two of the flames 1st rounds picks so Ryan and Neal could get more ice time … skate slow and shot wide 2018 goals…

    just playing GFG

  • canadian1967

    Anze Kopitar 16 4 2
    Nik Ehlers 16 4 4
    Jeff Carter 16 4 6
    Jason Spezza 18 4 6
    Bryan Little 16 4 3
    Mike Backlund 18 3 7
    Max Pacioretty 14 2 0
    Jaden Scwartz 13 2 5
    N Neinerreiter 18 1 7
    James Neal 18 3 1

    Ari says: “But through 18 games this season, Neal has just three goals and four points, on pace for 14 and 18: not even close to good enough.”

    The numbers above are GP, Goals and Assists.

    When Neal gets 5 goals in 3 games at one or two points in the season, will we then see articles about how awesome he is? Scoring is streaky for most players, only the top percentile are “consistently” scoring.

    Didn’t Kopitar have over 90 points last season?

    Neal will be fine, he just needs to pop a couple to feel better.

    • HOCKEY83

      Last season Neal got 6 goals in his first 4 games and then got 1 in 9 and very sporadic from that point forward with many goalless streaks to the end of the season. If the expectation is at least 20 goals in 82 games there are going to be a lot of games with out goals.