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Justin Braun trade may set the market for TJ Brodie

The National Hockey League trade market is often very quiet until a move is made and dominoes quickly begin to topple. The San Jose Sharks’ signing of Erik Karlsson has seemingly triggered some other moves around the league, most notably for the Calgary Flames the trade of Sharks defenseman Justin Braun to the Philadelphia Flyers. Because of their similarities, the value the Sharks got for Braun could be a good indicator of what the market looks like for a potential TJ Brodie trade.

The Sharks are in a bit of a cap crunch, like the Flames, only San Jose’s jammed up against the cap after signing Karlsson’s monster deal and were in a situation where they had to accept whatever value they could get to move out some salary. Braun, 32, is entering the final year of his current contract (with a $3.8 million cap hit). His career offensive high was five goals and 33 points in 2017-18, but generally he’s been good for around 20 points and is typically used as a tough-minutes defender paired with either Marc-Edouard Vlasic or Brenden Dillon.

There are a few factors that suggest that the Flames could get more for Brodie than the Sharks did for Braun:

  • They’re in less of a cap bind than the Sharks, so they could merely wait for an offer that’s too good to pass up.
  • Brodie’s younger than Braun by three years.
  • Brodie plays more on special teams than Braun and is more of an offensive threat, generally counted on for around 35 points a season.

Brodie’s cap hit is $850,000 more than Braun’s, which likely brings his trade value down a bit. Brodie’s prominence on the Flames’ top pairing with presumptive Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano could help him or hurt him. On one hand, reuniting Giordano and Brodie led to the captain’s best-ever season at age 35. On the other hand, Giordano has built a reputation over the years as somebody that is good enough to mask his partner’s flaws so it’s unclear if GMs would see Brodie as a guy that elevates his pairing or a guy that needs the right fit to play well.

The specifics of a deal would depend on the team that Brad Treliving is potentially chatting with, but generally-speaking the Braun swap should set the expectation that the Flames could get back a second round pick and potentially another asset (likely a lesser draft pick or a secondary prospect).

  • deantheraven

    If Braun is worth a 2nd and a 3rd to a team presumably dealing from a weak position, then Brodie is worth a first and a second, or 2 seconds and a third at least.

  • BendingCorners

    The more I think about trading Brodie the less I like it. Andersson is good but an extra year being sheltered would not hurt his development. Relying on Stone for 82 games is also risky. I understand the logic behind moving him but it means there is a good chance the Flames regress defensively next year.

    • freethe flames

      As I posted over an hour ago:
      After the last two trades of NHL defencemen Trouba To NYR and Braun to Philly what is TJ’s value. IMO he is closer to Trouba than Braun. So what would I accept as a far market deal for TJ. Trouba who is younger but a RFA got a top 20 pick and a 4-6 defender Braun got a second rounder and a 3rd rounder next year. So here are my options; not in any real order of preference:
      A. a middle 6 forward who meets our needs and is a little younger and depending on the perceived quality a later round pick.
      B: a flop of first rounders and depending on how great a difference a solid prospect or a mid round draft pick.
      C. two second rounders one of which is below 40.
      That’s my view on what he is worth based upon these 2 trades.

      • Heeeeere’s Johnny

        I think B is undervaluing T.J. a bit unless we’re talking top 10 draft pick, and I guess it would also depend on who the “solid prospect” is. But a flip of picks and a 3rd wouldn’t be enough if it only moved us up 5-10 spots.

    • freethe flames

      The major thing about trading TJ is that it shuld create the cap space needed to improve the middle 6. But if the deal does not cme somewhat close to what I have posted I’m okay with starting the season with him. If he can’t move TJ then moving Frolik and buying out Stone or trading him would give him between $5.5m and $7.8m in cap space.

  • redwhiteblack

    Drfat picks don’t help with the window being 2 to 3 more seasons with this core. Need a good forward (not Brower, Neil types) to help balance the 2/3 lines.

  • super6646

    Oh goodness… this whole Brodie thing has been mind numbing at this point. There has been no rational from this site to trade him other than to make a trade, and yet when we have guys like stone, Frolik, and Neal who offer far less for their relative cap hit, Brodie should be the cap casualty. I honestly question if some of the writers here know anything more than some random fan on hf or cp. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say no.

    • Kevin R

      Simple, if we have no intention of extending him, he will get us the best return out of Neal, Stone & Frolik & we can get some assets for him. Nothing wrong with that.

    • Cfan in Van

      Frolik and Brodie are comparables there, because they both offer decent value for their contracts and are both players who won’t be re-upped by the Flames after next season (get value while you can). Nobody’s going to take Stone or Neal unless we take on someone else’s high priced salary, or retain a bunch of salary. Anyway you cut it, the team needs to whittle down the cap hits to afford Tkachuk. Any lightbulbs turning on yet?

    • SGRietzey

      I’m gonna go out on a limb myself here and say you don’t understand the dynamics or reality of trading dead weight with bad contracts like Neal and Stone, since either likely only happens by taking back another bad contract, thus making it a moot point when you’re trying to clear cap.

      • super6646

        If the Flames are desperate for cap, Frolik and Stone should be on the chopping block first. Worst comes to worst, retain some salary on Stone and use the assets you get from Frolik to move him. It isn’t that hard, but I’m sure ownership will plenty of issues with that for whatever reason. Neal is a lost cost and not movable in a reasonable deal, so we’re stuck with him for another year at least.

        • SGRietzey

          I don’t disagree – and Frolik by all accounts seems to be as good as gone, though it seems more likely for roster help so it may end up a wash on the cap front. Anything can happen, but Stone gone at $3.5M seems far less likely. Retained salary makes him moderately more attractive, but somewhat defeats the purpose of offloading him in the first place (cap relief). Stranger things have happened, though – maybe they can convince a team needing to hit the floor that he’s an effective 4-5D with a good shot on the PP and get a 3rd for him.

          Don’t get me wrong – I think the Flames are better with Brodie in the lineup than without. But given that Andersson seems likely to take a step forward, and that Brodie is a more attractive option to other teams than Stone in general, it gives them the flexibility to deal from a position of relative organizational strength for something they need.

  • benfr

    While Gio has been good for a long time and does raise his d partners game, 2 out of the last 3 years he has been stellar and in the Norris discussion. Both times his partner was Brodie. The in between year he was good, but not Norris discussion good. That year he was paired with Hamilton. Is it just coincidence that his 2 Norris level seasons were the years that he was paired with Brodie?

  • Albertabeef

    “On the other hand, Giordano has built a reputation over the years as somebody that is good enough to mask his partner’s flaws”

    He surely didn’t mask Hamilton’s flaws lol.

  • Garry T

    Pike, I hope you are wrong about TJ’s value.

    On another note, I think fan speculation on how much Tkachuk should be paid is detrimental to the process of signing him. I think he is a good player, not great, but good. I think that if he is indeed looking at massive numbers,
    Tre should put a fair number on the table, say five years at $5,000,000 and if his group will not accept that, then trade him to the highest bidder. Moving
    Out TJ and Frolik , two top players to cover an over-pay is disruptive.

    In terms of trading Frolik, I think Peters needs to be sat down and told to get off this guy’s ass if he indeed harbours detrimental opinions of Frolik. He achieved top ten player status in the recent world tournament in Europe. He is in great shape. I would extend him another two years and advise him they will tell him where the team is at a year before his contract expires. He is a super player and if the dissension rumours are correct, they need to be smoothed out right now. If Bill is going to be pig headed, then maybe we move Bill out.

    • freethe flames

      An interesting take that goes against the grain of most of us here and by whta is likely happening around the league. $5m is not even going to be close to what Tkachuk signs for; he is a better than Nylander in Toronto and his numbers are @7m. I calculated what his salary would be if he got the same % as Johnny and that number is @$7.6m. Moving out TJ/Frolik or anyone else is not to pay Tkachuk but to have cash to be in the FA market and the trade market. This team has some very good pieces but is short a couple of significant pieces that do not exist in the organization and need to be acquired either via FA or a trade.

      In regards to Frolik I agree he is a solid player but as players enter their last year of a contract you need to consider moving them if you can get a fair return. The key is slotting him a proper role and using him in that role. He, Backs and Bennett could be a heck of a third line whose primary role is to match up with other teams top lines but then the “O” expectations need to be somewhat lowered. The only way the flames would resign him is for a pay cut which is what should be happening for most of the post 30 mid level players.

  • Mr.Luv2Poop

    Thought: It’s known that jesse puljujärvi’s camp want a fresh start. Is there a deal that cgy and edm can workout to send jesse puljujärvi + other pieces to cgy and brodie to edmonton? He’s a big young RW, needs a new contract but that will be cheap. You’re deffs rolling the dice a bit, the guy also just came off hip surgery.