Flames Projections: Secondary Forwards

  Every year we project how many points each of the players will score using a couple of different statistical methods, and why should a potential lockout season be any different? If you’re just tuning in, we explained our methodology in more detail in our first piece, which covered the top-six forwards.  Last time we…


Projecting Flames Defensemen Scoring

    For the third straight year we’re using statistical methods to project how many points each of the Calgary Flames will score.  In the first part, which you can read here, we look at their top-six forwards, as well as explaining our approach in a little more detail. How did we do last year? …


Flames Projections: Top-Six

    (Just in case there is actually some game action this year, Rob Vollman returns to FlamesNation with some player projections. We start with a look at the Flames top-6) It was risky enough these past two years to publish scoring projections for each Calgary Flame using purely statistical analysis, but it’s an even…

Rating the Flames Defensively

  Measuring a player’s defensive contributions statistically is currently one of the most difficult things to do. You can’t just look at goals (or shots) against, because the great defensive players are up against the toughest opponents and in their own end, while the weaker ones are against softer opponents mostly in the opposing zone….


A look at Flames even strength play: scoring chances, shots and Goals

  In every week’s black box we saw how well the Flames fared with each individual player on the ice, in terms of attempted shots, scoring chances, and actual goals (here’s the final weekly black box summary).  This week we’ll take a look back and look at Calgary’s even-strength data in a variety of ways,…

Reviewing Flames Secondary Forwards Projections

    For two years now we’ve set pre-season individual scoring expectations for the Calgary Flames, using Tom Awad’s famed VUKOTA system, and our own Snepsts System to set worst-case, best-case and average scoring expectations for each player. 


Reviewing Flames Defensemen Projections

    Calgary’s blue line was overhauled in the 2011 off-season. Absent for the first time since 1999 was Robyn Regehr, along with depth pieces Steve Staios and Adam Pardy, replaced with Chris Butler, Scott Hannan and Derek Smith. To help set scoring expectations for Calgary’s blue line, and indeed their entire line-up, we used…


Calgary’s Role Changes

    Whose role changed the most from 2010-11 to 2011-12?  You’d probably say Chris Butler, who went from Buffalo’s depth blue line to Calgary’s top pairing, or perhaps Cory Sarich and Matt Stajan, who went from useful secondary players to the depth lines.


Reviewing Flames Player Projections

    You see lots of player projections before the season begins, but how often do we take a look back to check their accuracy?  While it takes guts to put your theories and predictions out there, it takes even more guts (or perhaps foolishness) to re-visit them after the fact.


Black Box: Week 27

    It’s small comfort, but the Calgary Flames are the best non-playoff team for the third season in a row, save for being a single point behind Dallas in 2010-11. They had a better regulation record than the San Jose Sharks, but unfortunately random skills competitions are part of today’s game and their 5-16…


Black Box: Week 26

    When you’re a play-off bubble team whose top lines can’t quite compete with opposing teams, you rely on catching a few breaks in order to qualify for the post-season.  If instead your team loses 5.5 points on the random OT/shoot-out chance, and are among the league leaders in man-games lost to injury, then…


Fun Flame Milestones

    When the playoff hunt is over, the various milestones are the only interesting things worth watching that remain. You know about the big milestones, like Jarome Iginla’s amazing 11 consecutive 30-goal streak or Jay Bouwmeester’s iron man streak, having recently passed Billy Harris into 7th all-time, but what about the more trivial milestones?