Flames Fancy Stats Through 17 Games

Ryan Pike
November 12 2014 09:30AM

We're 17 games (or just over 20%) into the Calgary Flames schedule, so it's time for another check-in regarding how the club's players are doing in all areas fancy stats.

We have a mix of stuff we're tallying ourselves (scoring chances and zone entries), and stuff we're putting from data collected by the fine folks at War on Ice and Hockey Analysis.

Except for zone entries, all stats refer to even-strength numbers, and we're limiting things to players who have played 10+ games due to sample size concerns.

BEST CORSI

  • Forwards: Paul Byron (49.61%), Jiri Hudler (47.46%), Sean Monahan (47.05%)
  • Defense: Mark Giordano (45.94%), T.J. Brodie (45.85%)

WORST CORSI

  • Forwards: Brandon Bollig (34.4%), Lance Bouma (37.58%), Joe Colborne (37.61%)
  • Defense: Deryk Engelland (37.8%), Ladislav Smid (39.36%)

TOUGHEST MINUTES (Opponent Corsi%)

  • Forwards: Devin Setoguchi (52.61%), Paul Byron (52.55%), Jiri Hudler (52.49%) [Monahan just off the leaderboard at 52.46%]
  • Defense: T.J. Brodie (53.09%), Mark Giordano (52.93%)

EASIEST MINUTES (Opponent Corsi%)

  • Forwards: Brandon Bollig (49.84%), Lance Bouma (50.18%), Josh Jooris (50.83%)
  • Defense: Ladislav Smid (50.52%), Deryk Engelland (51.1%)

MOST O-ZONE STARTS

  • Forwards: Johnny Gaudreau (50.39% OZS), Jiri Hudler (48.61%), Brandon Bollig (47.17%)
  • Defense: Kris Russell (51.5% OZS), Deryk Engelland (48.28%)

LEAST O-ZONE STARTS

  • Forwards: Matt Stajan (32.78% OZS), Curtis Glencross (35.54%), Mikael Backlund (37.74%)
  • Defense: Ladislav Smid (35.24% OZS), T.J. Brodie (36.32%)

SCORING CHANCE LEADERS

  • Forwards: Curtis Glencross (51.3 SCF%), David Jones (50.7%), Paul Byron (50.37%) [Jooris just off leaderboard at 49.28%]
  • Defense: Mark Giordano (53.72 SCF%), T.J. Brodie (49.49%)

SCORING CHANCE SLACKERS

  • Forwards: Mason Raymond (31.58 SCF%), Devin Setoguchi (34.85%), Brandon Bollig (37.36%)
  • Defense: Deryk Engelland (34.51 SCF%), Kris Russell (36.36%)

DUMPERS

  • Forwards: Devin Setoguchi (25% carry), Brandon Bollig (26.32% carry), Josh Jooris (27.27%)
  • Defense: Ladislav Smid (0% carry), Deryk Engelland (20.59% carry)

CARRIERS

  • Forwards: Johnny Gaudreau (64.23% carry), Mikael Backlund (59.15% carry), Paul Byron (58.43% carry)
  • Defense: T.J. Brodie (45.74% carry), Kris Russell (27.06% carry)

TAKEAWAYS

For the curious, Calgary's player usage chart (via Hockey Abstract):

Clean_Image_for_Blogs

  • The "tough minutes, good Corsi" club includes Paul Byron, Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan, T.J. Brodie and Mark Giordano.
  • In the Setoguchi vs. Jooris race for getting to play regular NHL minutes: Setoguchi plays tough minutes, has okay Corsi and awful scoring chance numbers. Jooris plays easy minutes, has okay Corsi and really good scoring chance numbers.
  • Smid and Engelland are a terrifying pairing possession-wise.
  • Brandon Bollig is the Deryk Engelland of the bottom-six.
  • Johnny Gaudreau's possession numbers have improved, but they're still not very good. Luckily for him, he plays for the Flames, so nobody's possession numbers are all that great.
  • My "I like David Jones" mindset of late has been backed up by the scoring chance numbers, but his Corsi numbers are fairly blah.
  • There's not a huge division between the quality of competition between the Flames leaders and bottom-end, but that's probably a product of their road-heavy schedule.
    • Away? Easiest competition went to (F) Bollig, Bouma & Stajan, (D) Diaz & Smid. Hardest competition went to (F) Gaudreau, Byron & Colborne, (D) Brodie & Giordano.
    • Home? Easiest competition went to (F) Bollig, Jooris & Bouma, (D) Smid & Engelland. Hardest competition went to (F) Glencross, Stajan & Hudler, (D) Brodie & Giordano.
    • Yes, road teams are totally targeting Johnny Gaudreau, which is entirely what they should be doing as rational decision-makers.
      51a8cdc527ce12d222fdc583f3cf4368
      Ryan Pike has covered the Calgary Flames since 2010. He's Senior Contributing Editor at FlamesNation, a Senior Writer covering the Flames and the NHL Draft for The Hockey Writers, and a correspondent for the Fischler Report. You can see his hand or the side of his head on TV sometimes.
      Avatar
      #51 RealMcHockeyReturns
      November 12 2014, 08:05PM
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      savardianspinorama wrote:

      We should also make note that it wasn't Darryl Sutter, Brad Treliving, nor Brian Burke that brought Brian McGratton aboard. It was Jay Feaster.

      Not even Darryl Sittler either! I know, makes no sense.

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      #52 Baalzamon
      November 12 2014, 08:07PM
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      I don't get peoples' fascination with Rattie. So he's a Right Wing. Big whoop.

      And he's not St. Louis's top prospect. Off the top of my head Ivan Barbashev, Robby Fabbri, and Dmitrij Jaskin are all better.

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      #53 RealMcHockeyReturns
      November 12 2014, 08:07PM
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      Chambers wrote:

      Kind of agree?? Can't remember the last time a team won a game or Stanley cup by being a cheerleader. There are teams that will need a tough guy/presence like McGratts and perhaps the trade deadline is the best time to move him?

      Flames are committed to Bolig contractually and he is the guy that will protect, send messages and make the young guys be braver. He is also a better all round player than McGratts. McGratts is on the outs based strictly on his absence this year. Time too move on!

      Sven, I agree has little trade value at this time unless he is part of a package. I don't mind being patient with him for another year in the minors but I am not sure he is mentally up too that!

      Agree as well, two main reasons to trade McG are: 1. Bollig can intimidate, fight, plays hockey better. 2. Need to keep Granlund and others in NHL And reasons to keep Sven are: 1 Potential 2nd or 1st line winger, improving all-around game. 2. Other similar guys bring more trade value back and most are older (e.g. Byron) 3. Harder to find skill players vs grinders, but skilled guys can learn to play defense while grinders cannot become Johnny Gaudreau

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      #54 piscera.infada
      November 12 2014, 08:26PM
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      @RealMcHockeyReturns

      No one is saying McGrattan or Gaudreau, McGrattan or Baertschi. They're simply questioning whether a team would even want McGrattan at all. I tend to agree. His trade value is likely non-existant anyway. I mean, by all means try, but he's going to net you, what? A 7th round pick?

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      #55 MontanaMan
      November 12 2014, 08:27PM
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      RealMcHockeyReturns wrote:

      Agree as well, two main reasons to trade McG are: 1. Bollig can intimidate, fight, plays hockey better. 2. Need to keep Granlund and others in NHL And reasons to keep Sven are: 1 Potential 2nd or 1st line winger, improving all-around game. 2. Other similar guys bring more trade value back and most are older (e.g. Byron) 3. Harder to find skill players vs grinders, but skilled guys can learn to play defense while grinders cannot become Johnny Gaudreau

      Sven potential 2nd or 1st line winger - you're joking??? Other guys bring more value like Byron - really? Byron would fetch you a 4th round draft pick. Has value but there's 100 more like him out of the NHL. Mcgratts and Sven together aren't going to bring alot - likely an overpriced veteran for a salary dump.

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      #56 The Real Slim Brodie
      November 12 2014, 08:31PM
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      I seem to remember Sven having concussion problems does anyone think it had long term effects. Maybe its causing problems with his ability to read plays...the sven I remember used to go full speed to the net with skill a lot like emile pourier

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      #57 savardianspinorama
      November 12 2014, 08:31PM
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      Chambers wrote:

      Kind of agree?? Can't remember the last time a team won a game or Stanley cup by being a cheerleader. There are teams that will need a tough guy/presence like McGratts and perhaps the trade deadline is the best time to move him?

      Flames are committed to Bolig contractually and he is the guy that will protect, send messages and make the young guys be braver. He is also a better all round player than McGratts. McGratts is on the outs based strictly on his absence this year. Time too move on!

      Sven, I agree has little trade value at this time unless he is part of a package. I don't mind being patient with him for another year in the minors but I am not sure he is mentally up too that!

      Well, sadly, the Flames are not part of the Stanley Cup equation. As for cheerleaders, you do realize Peplinski and Tim Hunter sat out back in 1989 when the Flames ouster-ed the Habs on home ice? Not that I am comparing Grats to the aforementioned, just saying that leadership comes in different packages.

      I like McGratton as a person. I don't have to like him as a hockey player. But I am not going to pee all over him because he doesn't live up to my expectations as a professional hockey player. My personal expectations are that I should get up every morning, go to work and try my hardest, and I am sure McGratton wakes up and feels the same way.

      Stats dump all over McGratton.

      Stats don't dump all over others who aren't in the public eye. The "others" don't have a TV camera watching them under-achieve at their own jobs.

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      #58 savardianspinorama
      November 12 2014, 08:41PM
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      MontanaMan wrote:

      Sven potential 2nd or 1st line winger - you're joking??? Other guys bring more value like Byron - really? Byron would fetch you a 4th round draft pick. Has value but there's 100 more like him out of the NHL. Mcgratts and Sven together aren't going to bring alot - likely an overpriced veteran for a salary dump.

      No point hating on Sven at this point.

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      #59 RealMcHockeyReturns
      November 12 2014, 08:55PM
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      MontanaMan wrote:

      Sven potential 2nd or 1st line winger - you're joking??? Other guys bring more value like Byron - really? Byron would fetch you a 4th round draft pick. Has value but there's 100 more like him out of the NHL. Mcgratts and Sven together aren't going to bring alot - likely an overpriced veteran for a salary dump.

      Right now Byron brings more trade value back, not in general and we prefer to keep Sven so yes trade Byron. As for McG he is simply in the way of Granlund and others so YES a 7th round choice or older AHL GUY is fine but no to roster player

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      #60 savardianspinorama
      November 12 2014, 08:58PM
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      It's not that I am comparing Sven to any of these guys, just making a point:

      The Flames gave up on Martin St Louis, Marc Savard, Corey Stillman and Brett Hull.

      The Canucks gave up on Cam Neeley.

      Edmonton gave up on Wayne Gretzky.

      The league is littered with teams who thought players were not going to make it or players were past their prime.

      I'd rather the Flames give Baertschi a chance and be proven wrong than to get a third-pairing defenseman for him and watch Sven excel for another team.

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      #61 RealMcHockeyReturns
      November 12 2014, 08:59PM
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      piscera.infada wrote:

      No one is saying McGrattan or Gaudreau, McGrattan or Baertschi. They're simply questioning whether a team would even want McGrattan at all. I tend to agree. His trade value is likely non-existant anyway. I mean, by all means try, but he's going to net you, what? A 7th round pick?

      I agree and I think you misunderstood. I mean there are too many forwards in Calgary once injuries are over and I prefer we keep Granlund up and Ferland up and get rid if Byron and McG for any non-roster assets. Then so those two young guys stay in Calgary. So ANYTHING back for McG is OK as long as not a roster guy, and yes trade Byron while value is high and maybe get 3rd or 4th rounder back. He could regress.

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      #62 Chambers
      November 12 2014, 09:06PM
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      savardianspinorama wrote:

      It's not that I am comparing Sven to any of these guys, just making a point:

      The Flames gave up on Martin St Louis, Marc Savard, Corey Stillman and Brett Hull.

      The Canucks gave up on Cam Neeley.

      Edmonton gave up on Wayne Gretzky.

      The league is littered with teams who thought players were not going to make it or players were past their prime.

      I'd rather the Flames give Baertschi a chance and be proven wrong than to get a third-pairing defenseman for him and watch Sven excel for another team.

      Agree with your comments provided that Sven and (daddy) are on board. Again doubtful Sven has the attitude to get down to Addy, work his ass off and burn up the AHL.

      We may see it's not part of his DNA and I can tell you BB will have no time for this Bull Sh__!!

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      #63 Burnward
      November 12 2014, 09:27PM
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      @savardianspinorama

      Edmonton gave up on Gretzky? That's a new way of looking at it. Guess they never thought he'd reach his potential?

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      #64 Gerard
      November 12 2014, 09:50PM
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      Burnward wrote:

      Edmonton gave up on Gretzky? That's a new way of looking at it. Guess they never thought he'd reach his potential?

      Not correct.

      That was purely a business decision. There was never any question in anyones mind regarding the potential of what was obviously the best player in the world.

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      #65 The Real Slim Brodie
      November 12 2014, 09:50PM
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      @Burnward

      Do you read every post as black or white.. it was pretty clear he didn't mean gretzky didn't reach his potential. Your just looking for a reason to trash his post.

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      #66 Chambers
      November 12 2014, 09:55PM
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      RealMcHockeyReturns wrote:

      Right now Byron brings more trade value back, not in general and we prefer to keep Sven so yes trade Byron. As for McG he is simply in the way of Granlund and others so YES a 7th round choice or older AHL GUY is fine but no to roster player

      Agree with your posts this evening.

      I caution too not over estimate Byron's trade value. He has tons of speed, but is tiny and cannot finish! I give him full marks for a big heart but its the points that count for the most part when measuring trade value.

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      #67 RealMcHockeyReturns
      November 12 2014, 10:05PM
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      So to change the subject, I think Dallas is not done trading given their poor start and superb forward group that is not performing. How's this for an idea:

      To Dallas: Ramo (they need better backup G), Russell (need 3rd D after Gonchar traded), McGrattan (toughness-intimidation factor), Byron (extra forward we give up with skill to play as complementary piece with Dallas top 2-3 lines)

      To Calgary: Dillon (future young and solid D), Roussel (gritty-talented F for us), Lindback (backup/minors G for Flames on expiring contract with Ortio awaiting and on 1-way NHL deal next year), and Flames net out to gain back 1 roster spot overall to keep Granlund or Ferland in NHL

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      #68 The Last Big Bear
      November 12 2014, 10:29PM
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      Avalain wrote:

      Question about the dumping stat. Does it include dumping the puck in when on a change?

      A dump in on a line change does NOT count as a dump in for the purposes of this stat.

      Neither do icings, errant clearing attempts, etc.

      They only count dump-ins used as a means of gaining zone entry.

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      #69 SC14
      November 12 2014, 10:31PM
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      @RealMcHockeyReturns

      Seeing as Dillon is already one of their better defenseman, they're definitely not going to give him up for what you proposed there

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      #70 Burnward
      November 12 2014, 10:54PM
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      The Real Slim Brodie wrote:

      Do you read every post as black or white.. it was pretty clear he didn't mean gretzky didn't reach his potential. Your just looking for a reason to trash his post.

      I was just confused how Gretzky fit into that thought process.

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      #71 Derzie
      November 12 2014, 10:57PM
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      I understand trying to see some positives but this talk of Bollig being 'better at hockey' than Big Ern is puzzling. Go back and read the lead article again. Both may be great guys but both are equally terrible.

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      #72 RexLibris
      November 12 2014, 10:58PM
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      @savardianspinorama

      Edmonton gave up on Wayne Gretzky.

      This just made my day.

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      #73 prendrefeu
      November 12 2014, 11:00PM
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      This article will be cited by Lambert tomorrow for his "5 things" as evidence against the Flames and in support of 'tank-mode' because he believes that tanking is the only method acceptable.

      Of course when the top prospect has an injury which puts him out for a year, what does that do? Does it point to not 'knowing' whether a player may turn out a torch for the team or a bust due to injury/luck/attitude once they his the main stage?

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      #74 RexLibris
      November 12 2014, 11:07PM
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      Derzie wrote:

      I understand trying to see some positives but this talk of Bollig being 'better at hockey' than Big Ern is puzzling. Go back and read the lead article again. Both may be great guys but both are equally terrible.

      That isn't entirely true.

      McGrattan is a liability defensively, but Bollig, while certainly limited in his NHL-calibre skill set, has a more varied set of tools to bring to the roster.

      He may not be a fighter in the same weight class as McGrattan, but that is becoming less and less important as time goes on.

      He can skate and forecheck well enough for a team with depth to find him occasionally useful (Chicago) and for those who value such things, he can also hold his own in a fight.

      Bollig is closer to the league-minimum in terms of 4th line functionality than McGrattan.

      If I had a question to Hartley about Bollig it would be why aren't you giving him harsher ZS and trying to buoy Stajan and Glencross? Quenneville ran Bollig with an 18% OZS last year. 18%! The closest he got to the net was when he had to walk through the zamboni entrance to get to the ice.

      The ZS issue the graph displays is a really curious one for me. Hartley either won't or can't get any of his players prime OZone starts.

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      #75 loudogYYC
      November 13 2014, 12:31AM
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      @RexLibris

      Chicago has one of the most balanced 4 lines of the past decade and they all pull their weight. Bollig is like Darren McCarty when he skated with Draper and Maltby back in the Detroit days, not the driver, just a complimentary passenger on a stacked bottom 6.

      The Flames don't have an ideal line for Bollig's skillset so my guess is we'll be putting up with the shortcomings all season, unless he finds another gear and earns his way onto Monahan's line.

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      #76 The Real Slim Brodie
      November 13 2014, 04:54AM
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      @Burnward

      Fair enough I also wondered how gretzky had anything in common with the others on the list. Also seems fitting that im awoke at 3 am by a pack of coyotes in my yard I hope we destroy Arizona tonight

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      #77 ChinookArchYYC
      November 13 2014, 06:36AM
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      The Real Slim Brodie wrote:

      Fair enough I also wondered how gretzky had anything in common with the others on the list. Also seems fitting that im awoke at 3 am by a pack of coyotes in my yard I hope we destroy Arizona tonight

      Woke up by Coyotes sounds like a harbinger.

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      #78 K_Mart
      November 13 2014, 06:57AM
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      Avalain wrote:

      Question about the dumping stat. Does it include dumping the puck in when on a change?

      Hmmm... Good question. It shouldn't be included though.

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      #79 K_Mart
      November 13 2014, 07:13AM
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      Skuehler wrote:

      Dumb question here... How accurate a fancy stats? Are they as black and white as say penalties or shots? Just wondering if measuring possession has a certain amount of subjectivity?

      It's as black and white as measuring shots because that's what it is. Corsi is like a +/- for shot attempts by a team when a certain player is on the ice. Missed shots, blocked shots, saved shots.. All shots. Because you have way more data points then actual +/- provides, it is way more reliable. Think of it like EA's NHL time on attack stat but it also measures how well the team can use that time to generate shots when said player is on the ice. Over a single season some teams have been able to overcome a poor corsi(Col and Tor last year) but in the long run it's very rare that a team can find a consistent way to score more goals by getting fewer shots and prevent goals by allowing more shots.

      Look at PDO to see how lucky a team is getting. If your Corsi is bad but your players are shooting above their career shooting% and your goalie is stopping pucks at a much higher rate than his career sv% you can overcome poor possession... For a while.

      That's what PDO should measure. (Sh%-playeravgs)+(Sv%-playeravgs). That way you know if players are likely to regress, or if they've just always had high sh% and sv%

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      #80 BJ
      November 13 2014, 07:27AM
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      _Peterbororough wrote:

      3 more games makes a huge difference?

      Plus, it's an 82 game season not 100 games. 17 is roughly 20% of the season (as stated) and so makes more sense than a 20 game summary would (24% of a season). Same reason a 41 game summary makes a lot more sense than a 40 game summary.

      We already looked these numbers at the 10 game mark. My point us that I dont think we need to look at these so often.

      Rather than every 10 or 7 games I think we should be looking at sample sizes of 20 to 40.

      My point wasnt to suggest that 20 is a better round number than 17.

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      #81 Demetric
      November 13 2014, 09:17AM
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      What is supposed to be under the TAKEAWAYS heading?

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      #82 Burnward
      November 13 2014, 09:20AM
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      @The Real Slim Brodie

      Damn Kaiiyuutes!

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      #83 VK63
      November 13 2014, 09:28AM
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      Smid and Engelland should be coined "the lottery" pairing. The more you play them the better your odds.

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      #84 savardianspinorama
      November 13 2014, 10:04AM
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      My point with Gretzky was (well yeah, I know it was a business decision) that Pocklington called Gretzky a "diminishing asset," which could be read as he wasn't going to produce at the same level. And maybe he didn't, but he also wasn't surrounded by the same kind of talent in LA as he was in Edmonton.

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      #85 The Real Slim Brodie
      November 13 2014, 10:18AM
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      @Burnward

      Ha ha that's exactly how my kids pronounce it...good one.. im thinking sven may get to use some of his speed tonight with jooris and byron all three players are good setup players and jooris seems to be able to finish. I predict a breakout game

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      #86 The Real Slim Brodie
      November 13 2014, 10:25AM
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      @The Real Slim Brodie

      I wanna see sven destroy his ferrari and not drive it like an 80 year old grandma clutching the wheel too tight. He is more of a ferrari player after all opposed to the safe and reliable Volvo hartley has been letting him drive. Also last change gives Hartley options...go flames

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      #87 Stan
      November 13 2014, 11:26AM
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      Derzie wrote:

      BT's work is not looking good in this report card. The majority of trouble spots are his moves.

      Disagree.

      Engelland: Yes, Brutal Bollig: Upgrade on Westgarth & McG Raymond: Big win, looked great before injury Hiller: Big win, one of the main reasons we are where we are Setoguchi: Wash, nothing contract. No risk, high reward move, can easily be buried in the minors.

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      #88 prendrefeu
      November 13 2014, 04:34PM
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      @The Real Slim Brodie

      Volvos are safe and reliable (expensive to maintain)... but they are also sleepers. A V70 R can rip the doors off of most competitors on the streets, figuratively, while carrying the groceries and the family dog.

      Don't underestimate a Volvo.

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      #89 Rock
      November 13 2014, 06:05PM
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      Let's not forget at the end of the year with the great record Grats was in the line up doing pretty good. The others question would be would Monny be as good as he is with Grats or with out him I think Grats was a large part of his development

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      #90 The Real Slim Brodie
      November 14 2014, 12:18PM
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      @prendrefeu

      I was talking about hartleys chat about wrecking his Ferraris...If Svens volvo is a sleeper then he just proved your point because he just brought the groceries home right when many were about to give up. He brought a lot of crow for all the people who have been doubting him...Good job sven keep it up

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      #91 IggyPop
      November 14 2014, 02:02PM
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      These individual numbers are interesting but what truly worries me about this team is the 2nd highest PDO and 3rd worst 5v5 Corsi in the league.

      This is the same type of thing that happened to the Leafs 2 years ago and Avs last year. Both teams came crashing down to earth in a bad way not long after.

      I hope we can defy the fancy stats but I am also a believer in them so here's to hoping everyone else is wrong!!

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