Quirks

 

 

While browsing the internets last night after the Flames game, I was shocked at some of the things I was reading statistically. The site Behind the Net-where I was spending a lot of time-is full of interesting statistical tidbits and factoids. Among them?

– The Flame who’s missed the net the most this season at even strength (besides Jarome Iginla) is one Mr. Tim Jackman. He’s also had the 5th most shots on the team at even strength.

– Calgary is 5th last in the league at generating shots, with an average of 27/60 at even strength. The teams behind them? Edmonton, New Jersey, Minnesota and Anaheim.

– Lee Stempniak has 11 even strength goals this year, which is tied for second on the team. Curtis Glencross also has 11 thus far.

– Last night was the first time Lance Bouma’s been on the ice for a goal against this season. Previously, he had 9 games of scoring invincibility. This is quite impressive given the quality of competition he’s been playing-although, it’s a very small sample size to draw from.

– Brent Sutter doesn’t match lines, full stop. Evidence? A player like Jarome Iginla-aging and a defensive liability-should be playing the softest minutes and have the best zone starts possible. This year, though, Iginla is 3rd among forwards in Corsi relative quality of competion (which means he plays the third hardest opponents) and his zone start percentage is at 48.2%. Sutter seems to do more of that “4th line out after icing” than we thought.

 – It’s getting tiresome defending Mikael Backlund. Another plus to the kid? He’s spent more time on ice against Henrik Zetterberg than any other player in the league this year at even strength. He also happens to have the 2nd lowest ZS% on the team while also playing the 6th best competion AND the 2nd best Corsi Rel on the team – 10 more Corsi events better then the other team per game.

-The last time the Flames were over 50% in 5v5 shot ratio was November 8th, 2011. The Flames are currently sitting at a season even strength shot ratio of 47.3%-meaning this season they’ve given up 130 more shots then they’ve taken. Last year at this point, the Flames had taken 143 more shots then their opponents at even strength, resulting in a shot ratio of 53.0%.

It’s no shock to look at these numbers and see that goal production has decreased by 14 goals year-over-year. That’s equal to 2.5 wins, which would put the Flames is a playoff spot. Funny that last year poor goaltending kept the team out of the playoffs and this year it’s the only thing keeping them in the playoff hunt. 

    • xis10ce

      This is the “for dummies” version.

      Also, and I quote “Sutter seems to do more of that “4th line out after icing” than we thought.”

      HOW THE F*#% is this the case, there has to be 29 other head coaches in the league that know better than to do this?

    • Mitch2

      Now now, let’s not get catty. There’s a lot of similar data, but it’s being presented differently, and it’s not entirely the same, either.

      This article is further evidence that Brent Sutter is an idiot. That, and the fact that Backlund narrowly missed being sent down to Abby (I presume he factored heavily into Feaster’s decision that Backs would be sent down were it not for injuries).

      Strikes against Butter:
      -does not understand the concept of line matching/has faith in PvP matchup involving up to 3 players of defensive mediocrity/awfulness (most recently: Iginla/Jokinen/Tanguay)
      -appears to hate Mikael Backlund
      -Blair effing Jones as a 2nd line centre
      -for a defensive coach, has a team that plays incredibly poorly in the defensive zone

      I wish I could blame him for Krys “Lundmark” Kolanos as well, but I imagine that’s primarily/entirely the fault of Feaster and the Heat staff.

  • Gange

    The Sutter revelation is interesting. Not in a good way though. Jarome should be getting softer minutes.

    Nice to see Bouma doing what he does. Can’t expect a player of his ilk to light up the scoreboard.

    • Mitch2

      Justin, this is all that has to happen for the Backlund haters to disappear.

      He is not beyond fair critique with a shooting % of 4.9%. He is shooting right into the bread basket on G’s or targeting the five-hole. He is also soft on the boards that may be fine but he can be fairly critiqued for not scoring.

      Derek Smith, a bottom pairing D man is out scoring him in PPG. It is fair to expect a forward to score and at a certain point and Backlund is at this point.

      Hopefully the floodgates will break open but I want to see him pressing more, hungrier and his fun with puppies pics on Twitter annoy me. He has a job to do…

  • Gange

    Redoing my list since this site hates me:

    -does not understand the concept of line matching/has faith in PvP matchup involving up to 3 players of defensive mediocrity/awfulness (most recently: Iginla/Jokinen/Tanguay)

    -appears to hate Mikael Backlund

    -Blair effing Jones as a 2nd line centre

    -for a defensive coach, has a team that plays incredibly poorly in the defensive zone

  • For argument’s sake I looked at all Mikael Backlund-type players last season. Forwards who played at least 40 games, had shooting percentages below 7%, a PDO below 1000, but who played against top competition and had positive Relative Corsi rates.

    I came up with Daniel Winnik, Peter Regin, Scott Gomez, Jamie Langenbrunner, Michael Frolik, Joel Ward and Shawn Matthias.

    So um … never mind.

    • Mitch2

      Not to punch out of my weight class here or get myself in trouble, I looked up the shooting % and got

      Winnik – 3.6%
      Ward – 9.1%
      Regin – 13.3%
      Frolik – 5.2%
      Matthias – 10.3%
      Langenbrunner – 4.6%
      Gomez – 0%

      Backlund is 4.9%

      Without getting complicated the requirement to score is not too much to ask. Backlund was brought in with the prep he had a great shot to go with his playmaking. If that expectation is to be removed, that is fine I guess, maybe that is why Cammy and other players need to be brought in.

      When I watch Backlund I see a player who is positionally sound and moves the puck well BUT when scoring chances come up I do not see a player hungry to score or one who drives to the net or has a deadly snipe of a shot. I hope that changes.

      When your team is winning no one is concerned but when your team isn’t and one of the issues is lack of scoring the microscope hits the top 6 forwards and the questions naturally arise on who isn’t producing and why… It is a natural question to ask of any top 6 forward.

  • loudogYYC

    Every time I read these very revealing articles, I hope that someone in Flames management has enough interest/time to have a look.

    Brent Sutter tries hard but he’s the wrong coach for this team. He should be coaching a young team like NYI.

    That said, Backlund would probably benefit from a coach that understands his skillset and uses him differently.