Compliance Buyout Candidates: Western Conference


Dany Heatley

Pic via Brett Stewart

This season’s NHL lockout resulted in a few interesting wrinkles when it comes to cap compliance – one of those is the compliance buyout. Every team (except NYR and MTL, who have both used one buyout) has two compliance buyouts they can use during the buyout periods over the next two summers. This year, I’ve identified a few players in each conference who might be subject to such buyout parameters. These buyouts don’t count against the salary cap, unlike regular buyouts. 

Anaheim Ducks

Bryan Allen – $3.5 million cap hit through 2014-2015 Season

Allen was awful this season – both by the counting numbers (6 assists, 0 goals in 41 GP) and the advanced stats (even ZS%, -10 Relative Corsi and -9.66 Corsi On while playing crap competition). Compound that with the fact that the Ducks, as currently constructed – i.e., without contracts for Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne, Toni Lydman and Kyle Palmieri – have about 930k in cap space. Jonas Hiller may move, which would create some room, but $3.5 million for a bottom-pairing defenseman is too much.

Calgary Flames

Alex Tanguay – $3.5 million cap hit through 2015-2016 Season

It’s unlikely that Tanguay is bought out as his point production and average cost do make him tradable. However, the term on that contract is ugly for a guy who has noticeably slowed in the past few years. He’s still a top-6 forward on the counting numbers side of things, though.

Chicago Blackhawks

Rostislav Olesz – $3.125 million cap hit through 2013-2014 Season

Marcus Kruger, Nick Leddy and Drew Leblanc need new contracts. Olesz hasn’t been able to stick at the NHL level with the Blackhawks. Pretty clear-cut, in my opinion.

Steve Montador – $2.75 million cap hit through 2014-2015 Season

The Blackhawks have lots of depth at defense, so paying $2.75 million to a guy so he can be your seventh or eighth man on the depth chart just doesn’t make sense to me. It appears as though the Blackhawks agree, as Montador spent the balance of this season with their AHL club. There’s also the contract issue and cap crunch explained up above.

Colorado Avalanche

David Jones – $4 million cap hit through 2015-2016 Season

Highly unlikely simply because of the financial situation of a team who just gave their new coach a non-guaranteed contract, but this is one of those deals that never should’ve been signed. Jones scored 9 points in 33 games last year, or, about .2PPG worse than Roman Cervenka this season. He’s never had a positive Corsi On, even with a season where he started 55% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Columbus Blue Jackets

James Wisnewski – $5.5 million cap hit through 2016-2017 Season

Wisnewski produced fine scoring-wise this year, but his results were likely helped by the soft minutes he played. For a team with Ryan Murray, Jack Johnson, Fedor Tyutin, Nikita Nikitin, Tim Erixon and Dalton Prout already under contract for next year Wisnewski might have a hard time justifying his price tag, as he’ll likely be the 4th or 5th defenseman on the depth chart.

RJ Umberger – $4.6 million cap hit through 2016-2017 Season

Umberger was used mainly in a shut-down role this season, facing the hardest competition among Blue Jacket forwards while dealing with a 47% ZS. However, that is an ugly cap hit for someone who only scored 18 points in 48 games this season. Considering that this was the first year of his contract, new GM Jarmo Kekkalainen may be able to brush the contract off as a mistake by his predecessor.

Edmonton Oilers

Shawn Horcoff – $5.5 million cap hit through 2014-2015 Season

The leader up north has long been lambasted (quite unfairly) for signing the huge contract he did after visiting a Mexican stick factory. However, Horcoff is still the 3rd best centre on the roster and the Oilers need all the help they can get. If the Oilers somehow get into cap trouble over the summer, though, that’s a nice number to be rid of.

Eric Belanger – $1.75 million cap hit through 2013-2014 Season

Belanger just has the one year remaining on his contract, but he is still playing with the big club and can skate a regular shift. This buyout would be more of a “we need an open spot for centerman x” type of thing.

Ben Eager – $1 million cap hit through 2013-2014 Season

Played a large chunk of the season with the Oilers’ farm team this year and the Oilers already have Mike Brown to be useless and punch people. Eager might find his way back to Edmonton, but it’s probably in the best interest of the team to give him his cash and say see-ya.

Minnesota Wild

Dany Heatley – $7.5 million cap hit through 2013-2014 Season

He’s just not worth $7.5 million per season anymore, and the Wild have the new contracts of Justin Falk, Jared Spurgeon, Cal Clutterbuck (*spits*) and a starting goaltender to sign with only about $5.5 million in cap space. Having $13 million free would make things substantially easier for Chuck Fletcher.

San Jose Sharks

Martin Havlat – $5 million cap hit through 2014-2015 Season

Makes too much money for a guy who, at this point, is just broken physically. Aside from two good years in the late oughts, Havlat has never played a season without missing at least 10 games. In the past two years, he’s missed 51 regular season games and has only played 7 out of a possible 16 playoff games for the Sharks. He still scored at a .5 PPG rate this season, but the underlying numbers are just okay. For a team with just over 8 million to spend on 7 players, Havlat may be a luxury they can’t afford.

Vancouver Canucks

Keith Ballard – $4.2 million cap hit through 2014-2015 Season

The Vancouver Canucks coaching staff willingly played Cam Barker and Andrew Alberts ahead of Ballard multiple times this season. That pretty much says it all, don’t it? On top of that, the Canucks are currently a million bucks over the cap next season with only 18 players signed. Bill Sweatt, Jordan Schroeder, Chris Tanev, Dale Weise and potentially Derek Roy all need new contracts as well, so this paperwork is as good as filed.

Did I miss anyone? Let me know in the comments.

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        • Drew Doughty’s possession with Robyn Regehr: 51.9%

          Doughty’s possession Without Robyn Regehr: 59.2%

          Robyn Regehr’s corsi rate in the post-season: -12.52/60 (lowest on the Kings blueline).

          He also got beat up in Buffalo the entire time he was there.

          I like Reggie for what he was for the Flames way back when. He sounds like a good guy and I think he’s smart enough to become a coach down the road.

          But he’s finished as an effective NHL defender beyond the third pairing. And he has been for awhile.

          • Scary Gary

            With all those advanced stats out there, why would the Stanley Cup champs play him so much and resign him? Guess some organizations must look at something else.

          • ChinookArchYYC

            I know for a fact that the LA Kings staff uses Corsi as part of their evaluation, as Bill Ranford mentioned how the Kings werent attempting enough shots against SJ to Ryan Rishaug on TSN. Here’s the link

            http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/5/21/kings-assistant-bill-ranford-cites-corsi-to-tsns-ryan-rishaug

            Pretty interesting stuff. When I was watching the game and heard him say that, I was like “isn’t that just corsi?”

            Perhaps the Kings look at overall team corsi, not individual corsi?

          • SmellOfVictory

            He’s a solid coach, but it’s Darryl effing Sutter. This dude made a million terrible personnel decisions for the Flames as a GM; he’s now playing his favourite old dman on the top pairing for his new team. Let’s not pretend that coaches and GMs are immune to personal biases or fault (sometimes extreme) just because they happen to be employed in the old boys club of the NHL.

          • He’s more than a solid coach. This is his 3rd final 4 appearance in his last 4 years of coaching. He wouldn’t play Regehr unless he was helping him win. Criticize his management all you want but no one can question his ability to coach.

          • SmellOfVictory

            He’s a great coach; that doesn’t mean he’s perfect. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with questioning individual decisions on his part.

          • Lordmork

            Huh, didn’t know that. Sutter always loved his big slow veteran d.. I bet reggie woulda got the same or more on the open market. Hell we signed sarich and babchuk for 2.5 for 2 yrs. I loved Reggie as a flame though. If Jerome dosent get a cup I’d love him too.

          • SmellOfVictory

            Advanced stats seem to be biased against stay-at-home defencemen. Since they are usually used in context specific situations, is this a useful evaluation tool for this subset of players?

            If Regher is doing his job he’s:
            1) blocking shots (counts against corsi)
            2) causing missed shots (counts against corsi and fenwick)
            3) neutralizes or limits scoring chances (is this measurable?)

            Since we know he has next to no offensive game, it’s going to be hard for him to contribute positively to his corsi rate. Has he ever a positive corsi player?

            I also suspect possession numbers are heavily subject to context. For example when the Kings are leading, Regher is probably playing a lot more frequently. Knowing Sutter they’ve also gone into a defensive shell resulting in a worse possession rate for Doughty.

            When the Kings are losing, they are probably aggressively trying to create scoring chances, meaning Doughty is probably being paired more often with someone with offensive skill (i.e. NOT Regher). This is only going to help Doughty’s possession stats away from Regher.

            So, while I agree that Regher isn’t as effective as he once was, I don’t know if we can say he’s no longer useful based solely on advanced stats and possession numbers.

          • SmellOfVictory

            Yeah, except he’s playing top 4 minutes and just got a contract extension. Neither of which suggest the Kings view him as a depth defenceman acquired for a cup ron.

          • BurningSensation

            Even if that’s true (which it likely is) that isn’t even the issue–it’s the fact that he’s made Drew Doughty that much WORSE. With Regehr, Doughty goes from elite to mediocre. Doughty is the kind of guy who puts up great possession rates regardless of linemates or circumstances. ie., his rate with ROB SCUDERI is MUCH better than his rate with Regehr.

            How can that be anything but an indictment of Regehr?

          • BurningSensation

            You are basing your evaluation on a stat that may not be all that important to the Kings. I am saying that because the Kings are saying that Regehr has not only brought a physical element to the team that was needed but he has helped Doughty take his game to a new level. They cite things like Doughty learning to keep the game much more simple, how he is learning to keep guys out of scoring areas, and how he is learning how to engage players physically after a shot from a poor scoring area who had been beating him to rebounds earlier in the year. He has learned how to allow shots from the periphery and prevent opportunities from the scoring area. The stats guys obviously see Regehr as a detriment. The hockey people are playing him and signing him to extensions. How can that not be an indictment on the importance of these advanced stats in hockey especially as Durr says, when evaluating a player like Regehr?

          • BurningSensation

            It could (and IMO should) be read as an indictment of Sutter and Lombardi misunderstanding the value that Regehr is actually producing.

            The NBA has seen a similar disconnect between what the advanced stats show and perceived performance by coaches/Gms. For example a player like Carmelo Anthony is looked upon as an elite small forward because of the offense he produces, but the advanced stats show that Melo takes way too many inefficient shots to generate that scoring, and that in the other facets of the game that matter (rebounds, assists, defense, etc) Melo is merely average or outright poor for his position.

            Regehr will be lauded for all the things he brings to the table that don’t show up in the stats; toughness, big body presence, leadership, heart, etc., but that just makes him a good candidate to be a coach.

            The facts are that he is a boat anchor dragging down Doughty’s (otherwise amazing) performance.

          • BurningSensation

            You must be right. What do these hockey guys know? They should be fired for how they have run this team into the ground by ignoring these stats. Why do you feel these stats are being ignored in a business that only recognizes and rewards one stat. And, if Sutter and Lombardi don’t win, they will be gone. Why are the advanced stat guys not running these teams and relying on these stats? Why do hockey people value intangibles so much when they have these stats to help make their decisions? Carmello Anthony is actually looked upon as an elite scorer by most in the basketball world which he is much like Bernard King was back in the day. Very valuable players in their role and players you like to have. I haven’t heard too many basketball guys call him an elite all round player.

          • BurningSensation

            Come on!!! The play was a 3 on 2. AS THE WEAK SIDE DEF, REGEHR ELIMINATED THE F2 as he is supposed to. Doughty had F1 and yet Clifford for some reason left F3 to join on F1. F3 scored the goal because of a Clifford break down. Get your head out of the stats and watch the game. Your lack of flexibility in considering the importance of things that cannot be measured has told me everything I need to know. Keep arrogantly criticizing hockey people for ignoring stats only non hockey people seem to focus on if it makes you feel good.

          • BurningSensation

            Yeah Regehr showed all kinds of leadership and big body presence all game long.

            Too bad they lost.

            Seriously though, Regehr’s underlying stats are terrible – for a reason. Since his arrival in LA he’s been gifted a terrific defense partner and gobs of ice-time and yet the stats show he has been a boat-anchor out on the ice.

            Do I think Sutter is a terrific coach? Without a doubt.

            Do I think Sutter is wrong to play him the way he does? You bet I do.

            Is Sutter a devotee of the advanced stats? I highly doubt it. He has a fantastic roster and he has them playing good ole boring Devil’s hockey – and he’s winning games doing so. Regehr is one of his old favourites and he’s playing him like he’s still 25 and in his prime.

            It was you who pointed out that the only stat that matters is wins – which is why it matters that LA just lost and that Regehr was -1.

          • BurningSensation

            How did Kane do against him tonight? He couldn’t throw the puck away quick enough and try to jump away from contact. Is there a stat for that? The only stat that matters in that business is wins. Who has more playoff wins in the last 2 years than LA? And, here they are in the final 4 again. Sutter wouldn’t play anyone for old times sake. And, Regehr is third in the league in the Warrener advanced statistic. It is time on ice in June. I made it up just like Jim Corsi made up his. It is easily measured so you may like it. Apparently a lot of coaches put people on the ice who are getting the job done that they want done. Wonder what his time on ice in a penalty killing role is? They have a good kill and he is always on. Or shots blocked at the man disadvantage? He does a lot of that. See, we can create stats and get bogged down in them. All coaches have a set criteria they judge players on. It may be the stuff you don’t follow. Have you considered that? Did you hear Warrener laughing about Jim Corsi creating that stat? You say Sutter has a great collection of players. They were out of the playoffs when he took over last year. Until he got them going, many on his roster were considered everything from no names to under achievers to dressing room cancers. Adding a veteran like Regehr to that group, a guy who listens to the coach and will compete for every inch on that ice is worth far more than any stat can measure. And, no, that does not make him better suited as a coach. The mentorship a professional like that gives in how he conducts his day to day business is invaluable. Unfortunately, Jim Corsi doesn’t know how to measure it.

          • BurningSensation

            I agree. I’m tired of people talking about advanced stats as if its the only thing in which to judge a player on. Hockey is a fluid game with numerous variables. Corsi, possession, etc has its place, but you cannot totally determine a players value with that.

          • BurningSensation

            What I think the adcanced stats are telling us is that those qualities you think of as being important simply aren’t, or, are expressed within the stat itself.

            Think of something like ‘toughness’, does it matter more whether your D-man is considered ‘hard to play against’, or whether he has a terrific RelCorsi heavy on own zone starts?

            In the case of Regehr, the stats are telling us that Doughty’s effectiveness has taken a big hit by having to play with Regehr.

          • BurningSensation

            The stats you choose to observe are telling you what you choose to observe. Nothing more unless the Kings follow the same stats you do. If they did, Regehr would never have been dealt for. Try to consider that perhaps there may be more to this game.

    • Parallex

      If we’re trying to trade Tanguay we should give L.A. a call… he’s one of Darryl’s guys and with Penner a free agrent they have a forward spot to fill.

    • Scary Gary

      Bah hahahah, that was good. Although Scuderi is a pending UFA, Mitchell might be done and Reggie is probably a solid leader to their young D coming up so it was a price they were willing to pay. I just don’t think they had to…

  • Parallex

    how hilarious would it be if Heatley and Havlat were BOTH bought out in the SAME summer two years after they were traded for EACH OTHER? Especially since they’re basically my two least favourite players (although my opinion of Havlat has improved markedly ever since he left the Wild and stopped playing games).

    ————-

    I don’t think Heatley was ever worth a 7.5 mil cap hit, personally. He coasted on elite linemates for his entire career until he reached Minnesota (well, actually, until he was demoted from the Thornton line). He’s got a great shot, but that’s it.

  • Lordmork

    I suppose it was too much to hope that some skilled players might come our way because of cap space issues. Obviously, teams are going to trim the dead weight first. I was just hoping there would be some bargains to be had, and this potential list does not give me much hope of that.

    • Parallex

      Why not? There are decent players on that list… for the most part they are buyout candidates not because their play isn’t NHL calibre but because their salary doesn’t match their actual value. You can get bargains out of most of that group you just have to figure out the right price.

  • loudogYYC

    I’ve said it before, I’d be all over trading for Dany Heatley as long as it costs us a song and the Wild include a pick. He can play sheltered minutes in Calgary and then flipped at the deadline for whoever wants to cough up a 2nd or 3rd.

    That’s something no other team can pull off right now, that’s using cap space strategically.

  • ChinookArchYYC

    Tampa isn’t even in Cap Jail, and it’s much closer to Cap Hell, with a 3rd of their players having NTC and NMC’s. Nice to see the Flames were the worst offenders.
    17 players signed and less than $4M fill out the rest of their roster. This team needs to do something and the elephant in the room looks like Vinny Lecaveliers ugly contract for the next 13 years.

  • Reggie is a veteran leader, plain and simple.

    He would’ve been Flames captain if Iginla wasn’t here. He always called out selfish “players” who put themselves ahead of the team, in terms of buying into the coaching system and padding their stats with EN goals (anybody guess who?). He sounds like he knows what’s up, both on the ice and off, and he doesn’t pull any punches.

    Plus the truculence. Lots of truculence.

  • In terms of “veteran”, Regehr is the second oldest on the Kings (4 months younger than Scuderi). He also had both his legs broken and played the next season. He makes $3M for every reason but his horrific advanced stats.

    • Parallex

      A friend of mine works for the Kings and says Regehr has been punishing forwards to the point some of the more skilled guys are avoiding going to the net. Not to mention what tremendous leadership he has been showing and apparently has been a great influence on Doughty. None of this shows up in the advanced stats. If he is good enough to be playing strong minutes on a top 4 team, I don’t think he is finished as a valuable defenseman.

  • ChinookArchYYC

    I’ve been an advocate of using all of the Flames organizational strengths in order to speed the rebuilding process up. To be blunt Murray Edward’s wallet is a big strength, coupled with the fact this team is very profitable. To my way of thinking it would be more prudent to put dollars toward ensuring the Flames could draft the next francise “elite” player.
    While, I believe the odds of a Flames Lecavelier trade and then Buyout to be very low, I hope it’s an option the Flames braintrust explores. Speaking rationally I would rather spend $2 million dollars a year extra to get Nathan McKinnon, than hand a UFA a $2M overpayment for an ugly long term.

  • schevvy

    I do think 3M is a lot for Reggie, but definitely see the argument that Clyde is bringing. Reggie always was a very good leader, and wasn’t afraid to speak his mind. (Didn’t he call out Phaneuf back in the day? I definitely remember him hating Keenan with a passion)

    Also: JAROME FOREVER. Anyone who thinks differently is just plain wrong. (Insert a wee bit of sarcasm). Still, love that guy.

    Ironic twist here, I find it hilarious that Vinny and Brad Richards, two of the main members of that hated 2004 Tampa team, are both primed to be bought out. Sometimes, things happen for a reason.

    • Schevvy, I just talked to my buddy in LA. They love all the intangibles Regehr brings and he apparently is a great mentor for Doughty. Really helping him and Voyonov learn how to keep the game simple and let things come to them. I wonder how much Brodie would be benefitting from his mentorship?

  • @ clYDE

    Absolutely right. In fact, I agree with every one of your comments above.

    This continuous banter about Darryl Sutter, and his wicked ways, is meaningless. Not that he is listening or really gives a shit anyway, but in about three weeks, he may well have another cup ring. That would be one ring for each ear so that he doesn’t have to listen to people whine and moan about how terrible he is.

    Why don’t we worry about his successor and what he plans on doing this month of June…

  • Scary Gary

    Nichushkin!!! Man this guy is going to be good, if he falls to six we have to take him. Calgary is the one team he’d have the best chance of making out if camp.

    • BurningSensation

      Interestingly, Eric Francis (*cough* douche *cough*), mentioned on the 960 show on Friday that he liked Nichushkin and that he could play Center.

      I like Nichushkin a tonne (based almost completely on how he dominated the Canadians at the WJC, which is both small sample size+’seen him good’).

      If the kid can also play C he could be a fantastic selection, but even if he is a pure right winger, we could use more of those too.

      • SmellOfVictory

        The thing with Nichushkin is that his hockey sense is allegedly not the best (at least, not for a top-end prospect). Given the Flames’ mandate of brain first, everything else later, he may not be high on their board. He does strike me as the kind of guy who could end up being like Kovalchuk lite, though.

        • BurningSensation

          Watched the combine special on TSN and they showed some footage of him. The guy is a beast. He’s so big and so fast and has fantastic hands. His hockey sense may not be elite, but it seems just fine to me. It’d be very hard to pass on a guy like that at #6.

          One thing that’s always bothered me about him though, why were his WJC numbers so poor?

  • SmellOfVictory

    Suggestion to Flames Nation:

    Any chance we get a draft pool going where you pick the exact order of who you think will go in the 1st round & the one with the most hits take all. Maybe $10 or $20 for the entry, 1 entry per person???

        • BurningSensation

          I’d also recommend a two-tiered scoring system;

          Every player correctly identified as being n the top 30 = 1pt

          Every player correctly identified in their correct slot = 3pts

          So getting Seth Jones right as being one of the top 30 = 1pt

          Correctly identifying that Jones is picked 3rd overall by the Bolts = 3pts

          Max points = 90 (nailing every pick by every team)

          Thoughts?

  • BurningSensation

    You forgot Tomas Kaberle from the Montreal Canadians, haven’t played in the playoffs, in fact he haven’t played since 5th of March and only played 10 games this season.

    At a time they prefered to play Greg Pateryn and they even add Davis Drewiske via a trade.

    With a 4,25m$ cap hit I don’t see him back with the Habs, Marc Bergevin will probably try to trade him, but if they can’t they’ll probably use their second compliance buyout.

    With Gomez, Ryder and Kaberle, they cut about 15m$.

    Having a lot of money when you don’t even know which player have a chance to go on the UFA market because of those buyout is a great thing.

  • Parallex

    I feel sad for Robyn Regher… from the sounds of it he is now the new Steve Staois. I mean, it’s eery how much those defending the Regher acquisition/extension resemble those defending the Staois acquisition by the Flames. If there’s one thing you don’t want to end up as it’s Steve Staois… that guy sucked and all his “intangibles” did was make the team worse.

    • Parallex

      Regehr is playing top 2 minutes on a top 4 team. Can’t see how you could possibly make a connection to the Staios saga??? I don’t think you should feel sad for Regehr. The guy is playing within himself and punishing guys.Is he the same guy as 10 years ago? Who is? Is he effective? Ask the skilled players he is playing against who are no longer going to the net.

      • Parallex

        Pretty easily. When Staois was traded for and people groaned and said that he didn’t contribute to winning a bunch of folk droned on about how he was “gritty” or “tough” and how he was the leadery leaderest of all the leaders and that those “qualities” would make the team better… instead he just made the team worse. Which is basically what’s going on here just replace the name Staois with Regher. The narrative that people are trying to construct is almost word for word the same… I suspect Regher will have about as much impact on LA that Staois had on Calgary. None at best, and most likely negative.

        • seve927

          Regehr has helped lead a team to the final 4!!! He is playing a very physical game and has been extremely effective on the penalty kill. Staios didn’t play top 2 minutes, lead Calgary even to the playoffs or anything. With the loss of Mitchell, Regehr has been just what the doctor ordered. My contact in LA is very impressed with what Regehr has brought to this team. He said Regehr makes them better. Who are we to argue with a guy hoping to get his second ring in 2 years?

          • The Last Big Bear

            question: do you believe the kings would have made the final 4 without regehr?

            advanced-stat wise, reggie’s corsi on was fine until last season when taken in context with his zs% and competition, which is something we all need to remember.

            as of last season, though, both his corsi on and corsi rel cratered, even with context.

            also, the kings do follow the same stats the advanced stats crowd do; take a look at nhl numbers from a week or so ago.

          • The Last Big Bear

            As funny as it sounds, a slow footed -4 def may have been that little intangible that got them here. My LA guy says he has brought a physical element to the team they were lacking and that he has rubbed off on his teammates immensly. He also says that Doughty has been much better since Regehr got there yet the stats you say the Kings follow refute that. I don’t think my former teammate would lie to me and he is a very good hockey guy. I don’t disagree that the Kings look at these stats but every team follows stats that matters most to their preferred style of play. Sutter would not be giving Regehr top 2 minutes if he wasn’t helping the team win. I do think Chicago will be more of a challenge for him as his style was best suited for competing against STL and San Jose but watching Kane avoid him today rather than try to expose him was interesting.

          • Parallex

            I find this debate very very entertaining. It does make one think & in my case open some wounds that were starting to heal. Those wounds are that we got freaking hosed on our deal with Buffalo!:-(

          • Parallex

            That LA is in the final four means absolutely nothing with regards to Regher… they won the cup last year without him so getting this far speaks nothing to his impact or lack thereof.

        • please cancel acct

          I,d add a Regher/Staois on my team in a minute if I felt comfortable that I had a chance to win.The playoffs are about hurting opposition players over a multi-game series.

          Watching Regher in the last series made me cringe with his inability to play the puck. However he played a big part in punishing the opposition forward’s trying to gain the zone on his side. That punishment is hard to measure,and it does take it’s toll

          As far as people thinking that Staois was the leadery leaderest of all leaders,that’s funny.

          I’am not fond of goon type forward’s but have always enjoyed punishing d- men.

  • The Last Big Bear

    Hmm, just looking through some stats, it looks like Regehr has always had terrible Corsi and Corsi relative.

    So even when he was in his prime, and Canadian Olympic material, and heralded by many as one of the top defensive defencemen in the world…

    It turns out we were all wrong.

    Heck, based on some of his ‘advanced stats’, it looks like Robyn Regehr was never even an NHL calibre player to start with.

    Who knew?

  • The Last Big Bear

    I don’t really mean to pile on the advanced stats crowd…

    But you’ve got coaches looking at an offensive zone faceoff after an icing against a left-handed centreman in the left circle, and it’s the 2nd period so your bench is on the wrong end of the ice, and their main offensive threat is their right winger, and if you lose this faceoff the left side defenceman is going to get stuck out there and blah, blah, blah…

    I could go on for pages about the considerations that an NHL level coach goes through pretty much automatically at every shift change.

    And the impression I get from advanced stats advocates is somebody telling this coach “Hey, have you ever thought of counting how many times each team shoots the puck?”

    Advanced stats suggesting that Darryl Sutter shouldn’t be playing Robyn Regehr in the top 4 is pretty much the mathematical equivalent of yelling “SHOOT!!” from the stands every time the point man gets the puck.

    • SmellOfVictory

      Negatory; that’s a misconception. The shot differential is just a proxy for how good a player generally is. It’s not whether or not he shoots the puck, it’s that, taken in aggregate, all actions lead to shots either being taken or prevented. All positive actions should increase the likelihood of a shot for, and all negative actions should increase the likelihood of a shot against.

      There might be the occasional fluke, but in an overarching sense, that is what advanced stats are all about. For example, a good hit should decrease the chances of a shot against, a bad hit (e.g. “The Phaneuf”) should increase those chances.

      • The Last Big Bear

        There’s no misconception.

        You’re counting shots.

        And then using shot proportions as a proxy for possession time, and using possession time as a proxy for a players’ contributions.

        I understand the rationale. But you’re still just counting shots. That’s it.

        It does have value, but there is nothing ‘advanced’ about it. And it’s certainly not more advanced than the decision making processes that every NHL level coach uses. They are aware of Corsi. Not using it exclusively to make decisions is not reflective of ignorance on their behalf.

        • supra steve

          B.B.

          What you seem to be missing is so obvious, you’re gonna just kick yourself. The thing you need to remember is that all of us know more about coaching than any NHL coach. We also know more about player development than any NHL organization, and we know more about evaluating young talent than any scouting department wrt drafting the future. We don’t even need to watch the juniors play, we get all the info we need from the interweb and have not missed on a single pick…ever. But where we really have all those NHL “pretenders” is in the GM dept. We have advanced stats that those guys have never heard of and wouldn’t understand anyway. Now you’re in on the FN facts.

          On a more serious note, I enjoy FlamesNation, I visit and read far more often than I post. But man oh man, what a bunch of know-it-alls (not indicating anyone in particular). Having said that, I’ll see you all tomorrow. I love the interweb.

        • SmellOfVictory

          The only reason we call it “advanced” is because it’s more advanced than basic stats. The shot counts themselves aren’t, but the interpretation as well as the contextual stuff is.

  • Speaking of Regehr, I’m watching game 2 of LAK/CHI, and Regehr just put it in his own net. Probably not a good idea to swipe your stick TOWARDS the net as you try to clear the puck.

    In light of this thread, I lol’d.

  • SmellOfVictory

    Avs: Zanon is a definite candidate. He is horrible. I expect we upgrade our defense somehow and Zanon just doesn’t belong. I’d give Jones one year to bounce back, considering his past production. He could be bought out next season if it doesn’t work out.

  • SmellOfVictory

    The Canucks are almost at the Cap limit with 17 players signed. They may have to utilize both compliance buyouts which puts them at 15 players to have the cap space to sign 22 or more players. It might be better to attempt to trade Ballard before going the buyout route. I sometimes wonder it there wasn’t an ulterior motive for buying a farm team with no place to play. It’s too bad there isn’t a compliance buyout for a GM/player agent.

  • SmellOfVictory

    After Roy’s abysmal performance in the playoffs for Vancouver, I doubt he’s in the mix for a new contract.

    Feel bad about Havlat though. The guy could never stay healthy, but was clearly a really skilled guy. Maybe his conditioning just sucked or he was just unlucky. We’ll never know.

  • ReimerOnCheese

    Clarke MacArthur and Mike Komisarek for the Toronto Maple Leafs. God, why is Mike Komisarek still playing hockey? HE SUCKS! He was only ever good because he had Markov to cover for him, he was only an All-Star because of rigged home crowd voting. He’s being payed 4.5 M a year to sit in the press box. I want him out of my town. As for Clarke MacArthur, I think he’s a nice player, but not for the NHL. He is a workaholic who can make nice plays, but Toronto has more than enough of those, and they can actually put the puck in the net too. He was good one or two years, but he’s lost his touch. I want him out of my town too. Reimer ftw!!!