Adjusted Corsi Check-In

Once in a while, we like to check in with the Calgary Flames on an individual basis to see how they’re doing relative to their positions on the team. But that can be tough with raw Corsi numbers or other unadjusted analytics because players are used differently and have different roles.

Thankfully, via our pal Michael Parkatti, we have Adjusted Corsi to save the day.

A PRIMER

There will be a lot of terms used in the below tables. Here’s the gist of what you need to know.

Corsi QoC: A measure of the quality of the players an individual plays against (QoC) based upon their on-ice Corsi. Higher numbers mean tougher competition.

Corsi QoT: Similar to the previous metric, a measure of the quality of the players an individual plays with (QoT) based upon their on-ice Corsi. (Calgary’s numbers are entirely negative because Calgary is not a good Corsi team.)

OZS%: Percentage of all even-strength shifts that begin in the offensive zone (ignoring all neutral zone starts; just comparing offensive and defensive deployments).

Corsi On: A player’s Corsi plus/minus (the difference in all shots, blocked shots and missed shots) when they’re on the ice.

Expected Corsi: Based on a metric developed by Michael Parkatti (over at Boys on the Bus), it’s calculated thusly: (Quality Difference [QoT – QoC]) + (Zone Start% x 0.24) – 11.91. It’s what your Corsi On is expected to be given the circumstances you play in.

Adjusted Corsi: The difference between your Expected Corsi and your Corsi On. A positive number indicates you’re doing better than expected, a negative number worse than expected.

FORWARDS

Corsi
QoC
Corsi
QoT
OZS% Corsi
On
Expected
Corsi
Adjusted
Corsi
Stajan 1.870 -16.247 33.9% -7.32 -22.891 14.571
Byron 2.617 -13.037 41.2% -5.02 -17.676 12.656
Backlund 3.161 -11.765 39.1% -7.84 -17.452 9.612
Hudler 3.002 -12.253 50.4% -6.06 -15.069 9.009
Baertschi 0.828 -14.065 43.8% -7.32 -16.291 8.971
Monahan 3.306 -11.483 43.8% -7.30 -16.187 8.887
Glencross 3.100 -10.729 37.8% -8.63 -16.667 8.037
Gaudreau 2.711 -13.310 50.5% -8.87 -15.811 6.941
Jooris 1.523 -13.338 44.3% -10.97 -16.139 5.169
Raymond 4.298 -13.522 45.5% -18.97 -18.810 -0.160
Setoguchi 4.884 -10.991 47.1% -17.42 -16.481 -0.939
Jones 2.317 -10.088 37.1% -17.48 -15.411 -2.069
Bouma 1.612 -15.120 41.2% -22.31 -18.754 -3.556
Colborne 3.481 -12.447 42.1% -23.59 -17.734 -5.856
Granlund 2.529 -12.469 47.9% -21.27 -15.412 -5.858
McGrattan 1.613 -18.925 46.9% -28.17 -21.192 -6.978
Bollig 1.614 -15.246 50.0% -29.52 -16.770 -12.75
Ferland 3.446 -13.472 45.7% -32.67 -17.860 -14.81

Sample size warnings about Stajan and Backlund, obviously, but that’s a pretty surprising group up there at the top. And it’s mostly young guys and Jiri Hudler. Byron, in particular, needs to be either re-signed or traded immediately to maximize his value.

On the flip-side, Ferland has played against tough competition and has sample size is small, but that’s not a great start. Bollig is flat-out not very good. Weird that Setoguchi got demoted while so many guys have worse underlyings than him. But the guys below him on this chart play a role. And/or score goals.

And Baertschi’s QoC is crazy-low. Like, easier comp than the fourth liners. That’s crazy.

I’m really interested to see what happens with Raymond, Colborne and Stajan once everyone’s healthy, given that Glencross and Monahan have been ridden hard (in terms of tough minutes) along with Jones and Bouma.

DEFENSE

Corsi
QoC
Corsi
QoT
OZS% Corsi
On
Expected
Corsi
Adjusted
Corsi
Brodie 3.465 -10.616 40.5% -3.03 -16.271 13.241
Giordano 3.577 -10.220 41.4% -3.89 -15.771 11.881
Wideman 2.498 -13.393 45.9% -14.13 -16.785 2.655
Russell 2.544 -13.090 48.8% -14.06 -15.832 1.772
Smid 1.691 -16.011 36.3% -19.70 -20.900 1.200
Engelland 1.941 -15.471 47.9% -24.37 -17.826 -6.544
Diaz 1.442 -15.964 50.9% -32.69 -17.100 -15.59

Brodie and Giordano are super-duper. Wideman, Russell and Smid are decent. (Smid is surprising!) Engelland is not that good. Diaz’s numbers are bad but his sample size is small compared to the other guys.

I have much less to say about the defensemen than the forwards, simply because the forwards are moved around a lot more, and there have been a lot of injuries and guys are coming in and out of the line-up and up and down from Adirondack.

  • BurningSensation

    Thanks for putting this together. My question is when do the Flames consider ‘selling high’ on some of their players? It seems they could take advantage of the narratives surrounding the team’s success to ship out some of the players while their value may never be higher. I’m not talking about Gaudreau, Brodie, or Monahan, of course. If/when the wins desert this team, and they have not made any moves, will they be happy with the progress of their team this season, or will it be a missed opportunity to strengthen the re-build through a couple mid-size transactions?

  • redhot1

    Smid is a little surprising but I thought he looked a lot better last night and has gotten a bit better as the seasons gone on. I think maybe he’d look a lot better if he wasn’t paired with an 8th/9th defensemen all the time. Hoping that the Flames can somehow offload the Engelland contract and bring up Wotherspoon or get back a functional 3rd pairing guy for Smid to play with.

  • redhot1

    The only thing that was positive to me was MacT’s acknowledgement of bad drafting after the first round. He also said that the team would not be trading draft picks.

    small victories.

  • redhot1

    Count me with someone who thinks the Flames still need to improve the 2nd pairing as well. No problem with how Wdeman and Russel are playing but they are better suited as a #3 pairing. I think for the Flames to eventually be a contender, adding depth below that 1st pairing is a huge priority. There’s really not that much depth in the prospect ranks so I think it’s going to be a really important offseason to address that.

    Engelland is terrible but everyone saw that coming a mile away. That contract sure is awful, luckily Wideman has been a nice surprise this year.

    • mk

      Agreed. An upgrade on the 2nd pairing pushes one of Wideman or Russell down to 3rd pairing, which would be great.

      Or, if one of them is gone as part of the upgrade, a better 2nd pairing allows the 3rd pairing to be used much less & in easier minutes.

  • Purple Hazze

    I don’t think you can say Ferland hasn’t had a great start. The fact he’s played in 8 NHL games already after missing an entire year speaks to the quality of player he is.

    Of course his underlying numbers are going to be bad, he’s a rookie still learning the ropes.

    • Purple Hazze

      That would be an amazing transition, he’s already got great defensive instincts and is a smooth skater to boot. I wonder if the Flames would ever consider trying something like that.

  • RexLibris

    The numbers support the dominant theme of the year – the Flames are generally overachieving.

    This is one of those occasions we always speak of where the numbers support what the eyes have been telling us.

    • BurningSensation

      The curious thing for me about these stats and our impending regression, is that there are lots of examples where teams over, or underperform for an entire season or longer.

      It’s all fine and dandy to predict a regression to more sustainable numbers, but if said regression is going to occur over 3 years rather than say over December, then regression isn’t necessarily the story everybody should be telling.

      • RexLibris

        Yes, PDO regresses to the mean, but even then there are fluctuations on timelines and we have seen variances within that model.

        I’ve got something written up on PDO as a follow-up to my earlier RE series.

        It has its use, like any other category, but is often misconstrued as meaning that all teams perform equally well over a long enough period.

        That isn’t true. Some are better, some are worse, and the time that each one experiences in a given performance period is relative to that team’s circumstances.

    • You gotta love it when the Underdogs defy the odds!!

      It makes for way more entertaining hockey then to watch a team with decent underlying numbers consistently underachieve… that would just suck, like really, really bad.

      I would feel horrible if I was a fan of a team like that… especially if they did it for like, a really long time.. like 8 or 9 years. That would make me really depressed.

      Well, Go Flames Go!

      • Agreed. Winning cultures don’t just appear out of nowhere. Champions don’t just appear out of nowhere. It’s not something that’s just “born,” it needs to be “raised.” When an underdog defies the odds for long enough, they become champions. And it’s up to their own resilience and willpower to determine how long they want to stay that way.

        Right now, numbers can’t explain ****.

          • RexLibris

            If the tables were turned I’d be flipping out about the Oilers cheating wins in a year where they should be earning them while the Flames are playing well but losing enough to secure Connor McDavid.

            No worries.

            I’m an Oilers fan.

            They are a terrible hockey team and have been for the last decade.

            You take the shots and support your team.

            You don’t mind if I write down your name in my little book for the fateful day when we rise up to smite our enemies, though, do you? Thanks!

            🙂

          • PrairieStew

            In all honesty, as much as I loathe when the Oilers beat the Flames… I hope they turn it around soon, the fans deserve better.

            As for McDavid: It’s probably too good to be true. I honestly can’t fathom a top six of McDavid, Bennett, Gaudreau, Monahan, Klimchuk and Poirier. I think my head would explode.

  • RexLibris

    Here’s a thought:

    100 PDO is the ** league ** average, not an individual team average. So it is entirely possible for a team to be above average for long periods.

    • mattyc

      Entirely possible, and it does happen. There was a good study on it at nhlnumbers ( I don’t have the link on my iphone). The range, however is quite narrow. Essentially it would be pretty unlikely to bet on a team over 101 or below 99 over a full season.

      Personally, breaking it into shooting and sv% makes more sense to me, because then you can see where the anomaly is. Personally I’m more skeptical of high shooting percentages (becAuse unless you’re stamkos or a Few other guys, you aren’t goin to sustain it).

  • The Last Big Bear

    1) I agree that the Flames need to consider trading someone while things are rolling. Byron is a good candidate, and I’ve been advocating to trade Granlund for a while, because he is awesome young centre (the Flames’ biggest strength), and that’s what it will likely take to get an awesome young defenceman (the Flames’ biggest need).

    2) I also agree that the Flames need another 2nd pairing defenceman. Yes, Russel and Wideman are doing well enough right now, but that’s largely because Wideman is currently scoring at a 30+ goal pace. Any bets on how long that lasts?

    3) The Smid-Engellamd pairing is… I’m gonna say “terrible”… together. I don’t think they were ever intended to play together for this long, but there have been shockingly few injuries on the blue line so far this season. That probably won’t last either.

    I’ll finish on a throw-away trade proposal to address all 3 issues:

    To Washington: Ladislav Smid, Markus Granlund

    To Calgary: Karl Alzner

      • The Last Big Bear

        Well it’s in Calgary’s favor on paper, but I’m not going to propose a trade that the Flames lose out on.

        A more realistic alternative might be Granlund for Dmitri Orlov, straight across.

    • PrairieStew

      Agree that trading a forward along with Smid for a defenceman is a good idea. Hoping that it is not Granlund though- still young and adapting to North American game and improving all the time. Reinhart maybe or Knight, perhaps Hanowski’s recent success makes him marketable as a third asset.

    • RealMcHockeyReturns

      Yes to the general idea, no to it being Granlund unless you get a better player than Alzner. Granlund is an excellent third line or higher player

  • BurningSensation

    meaningful hockey till the end of the season is really heads and shoulders above any reasonable expectation I had for this team going into the season. The numbers seem to bare out that, with the points already in the bank, that’s exactly what we should be expecting this season. Playoffs or no playoffs that’s the step forward I was looking for this season.

    The boy’s are playing with house money from here on out. They’ll take their lumps this year, no doubt, so long as they’re working as hard as they can I’m happy no matter what.

    GO FLAMES GO!