Analytics and The Waiting Game for Bob Hartley

We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2014-15 schedule, which means that we’re inching closer and closer to the end of Bob Hartley’s original deal with the Calgary Flames.

Given his success this season, he’s bound to get an extension. Right? I’m still of the mindset that he will get another deal, but I’m wondering what the hold-up is. But I think I’ve figured it out.

The Flames are in the playoff picture, so this seems like the first time in years that the hockey world is really paying attention. And with that attention, comes two common prongs in coverage – Can They Keep It Up, and No They Can’t Cuz Advanced Stats.

We’ve covered both topics here; the unlikelihood of this recent run given Calgary’s advanced stats and the related unlikelihood that it’ll last forever.

Now, Brad Treliving is not a dumb guy. He works extremely hard and has at least a passing working knowledge of advanced stats from his time in Phoenix, where they needed to use every tool at their disposal to survive. He’s very likely aware of the bubble Calgary’s living in. He’s heard and read all the “it can’t last!” stories and the stories about it all being bounces and luck.

And, like us, he’s probably extremely curious about how much of this team’s success has been bounces and how much has been Bob Hartley. He’d probably like to have a good idea before he signs anybody to a contract extension.

Nobody really wants to see the bounces stop and the real Calgary Flames begin to emerge, but I’m figuring that Treliving wants to wait and see what happens in the next third of the season before putting pen to paper with the current coaching staff.

  • Lordmork

    Why do people who can’t/won’t understand advanced stats come to FN?

    More on topic, I like the culture this team is currently displaying, but I don’t think Hartley should be a lock for an extension. He’s made some bewildering decisions about player deployment in the past. I don’t see any value in extending him until the season is much closer to being over.

    • Burnward

      Because like you….we like to follow the Calgary Flames. I enjoy reading the articles and the writers interpretations of the stats but I completely skip over the graph and probably could not explain most of it to anyone with any sense of confidence. That being said I think the stats are important but not the end all be all of the game…….I agree with your sentiments on Hartley. Its too early. Lets not blow our load here…

    • RedMan

      Flames Nation USED to be about hockey…

      now, it is about stats,

      the fans of stats, the stats standings, the stats wins and losses, retired stats, etc etc etc.

      I wish this sight would talk about hockey again, prospect updates, pics of the red mile from 04, anything hockey related. NOT STATS

  • redricardo

    Smart enough to get Brody locked down right away.. and we’ll see what he does with Glencross soon I guess.

    I heard a comment from BT this year that he won’t make any moves just to make a push for the playoffs this year, and they won’t deviate from the ‘rebuild’ plan. So I’m not too worried that he’ll do anything stupid at the deadline.

    I’m still not sure what the Engelland and Bollig acquisitions were all about, probably just to get us to the cap floor with a couple of ‘dressing room’ guys.

    It will be interesting to see if Calgary and Arizona will make any trades this year.

  • scoopz

    Can we stop calling it “bounces”. We are getting the “luck” because of our character, momentum and hard work. I agree we will regress but not because the “bounces will stop going our way” but because we will start getting tired and other teams will play harder against us and we may lose some of the confidence we have right now.

    The stats guys that say character, momentum and hard work have nothing to do with the Flames to start the season have never played the game, or any sport for that matter. Winning streaks come to an end, and we are going to hear the “I told you so” from all of the smug advanced stats guys, when we all know a run like this wouldn’t last regardless of looking at Corsi and PDO.

    Hot streaks are not from getting the bounces, they come from the intangibles that help a team win.

      • Cool Story, Brodie!!!

        I as well as several other commenters have made that observation, something which the analizers dont want to hear because they just rely on historical data. And you really don’t know if Granlund or Ferland will get better until you have some hard data that says so.

      • Burnward

        Do you believe hard work, momentum and character have nothing to do with hockey and winning games? Are you saying that the way the puck bounced is the reason we are where we are at right now?