Analytics and The Waiting Game for Bob Hartley

We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2014-15 schedule, which means that we’re inching closer and closer to the end of Bob Hartley’s original deal with the Calgary Flames.

Given his success this season, he’s bound to get an extension. Right? I’m still of the mindset that he will get another deal, but I’m wondering what the hold-up is. But I think I’ve figured it out.

The Flames are in the playoff picture, so this seems like the first time in years that the hockey world is really paying attention. And with that attention, comes two common prongs in coverage – Can They Keep It Up, and No They Can’t Cuz Advanced Stats.

We’ve covered both topics here; the unlikelihood of this recent run given Calgary’s advanced stats and the related unlikelihood that it’ll last forever.

Now, Brad Treliving is not a dumb guy. He works extremely hard and has at least a passing working knowledge of advanced stats from his time in Phoenix, where they needed to use every tool at their disposal to survive. He’s very likely aware of the bubble Calgary’s living in. He’s heard and read all the “it can’t last!” stories and the stories about it all being bounces and luck.

And, like us, he’s probably extremely curious about how much of this team’s success has been bounces and how much has been Bob Hartley. He’d probably like to have a good idea before he signs anybody to a contract extension.

Nobody really wants to see the bounces stop and the real Calgary Flames begin to emerge, but I’m figuring that Treliving wants to wait and see what happens in the next third of the season before putting pen to paper with the current coaching staff.

  • Burnward

    Is it possible that Bob Hartley is the one who doesn’t want to re-sign until the end of the season, so he can see if he gets Coach of the year?

    Surely that would add a few bucks to his next contract?

    • RealMcHockeyReturns

      If he wins coach of the year,Gio and Brodie would be the reason.They have given Bob the option of playing a speed game.

      Any coach would love to have these two as there top defensive pair.

  • RealMcHockeyReturns

    For the record I am not in any way opposed to advanced stats and believe they have merit. But I don’t know that they really always tell us a whole lot. I don’t need to see the Corsi from last night’s Red Wings Leafs game to know that Pavel Datsyuk and the red wings absolutely dominated the game. Yet the leafs won. The eye test was enough for me to know that that style of play is not sustainable for the leafs. I don’t always feel the same way about the flames, as I often feel as though they are having more chances and have the balance of play, yet the next day someone complains that we only had 45% Corsi for.

    I also agree that we have way too many articles about analytics. Where are the articles about the insanely awesome system Bob Hartley has our D-men playing where they jump into almost every rush and some games has Gio and Brodie looking like modern day Bobby Orr. Or how this systme has gotten so much out of our rookies?? Where are the GIFs (do we not have the technology??) showing examples of these plays and explaining why Brodie and Gio are considered the best pairing in the league this season??? We have the highest scoring d corps in the league by a COUNTRY MILE, yet correct me if I’m wrong I have not seen a single mention of this all season in any FN articles. Where are the articles talking about what has made this a possibility, because let me tell you its not only down to PDO and Corsi. If there are any Flames Fan websites that have intelligent conversations about some of these topics and discuss positional play, systems, team speed etc. please point me in the right direction.

  • Burnward

    The reason why advanced stats take a beating on this website is because the analytics show the Oilers are better than the Flames and the Oilers keep sucking like a durable vaccum cleaner each and every season, while the Flames have outperformed them in wins and Loses. And the analysts cannot explain that with their data and likely never will.

  • RKD

    After Dreger reported that Trevling and Hartley were starting talks on an extension and that a new deal could be finished in the coming weeks, I’m starting to get suspicious. I think he could have a new deal before Christmas but if not then it could be possible they may wait and see where this team is by the all-star break. Maybe we don’t see a deal for Hartley until after the new year.