The Calgary Flames play their 54th game of the season later today. In anticipation of that contest, let’s review some numbers, shall we?
There are three commonly-used possession statistics: Corsi, Fenwick and Scoring Chances. By sheer coincidence, all can be found on the helpful War On Ice site.
- Corsi percentage is the percentage of all shots, blocked shots and missed shots towards the opponent’s net, no matter where they’re taken.
- Fenwick percentage is the percentage of all shots and missed shots, ignoring blocked shots.
Scoring Chances, per War on Ice’s explanation: (detailed with images at numbers at the link)
“In the low danger zone, unblocked rebounds and rush shots only.
In the medium danger zone, all unblocked shots.
In the high danger zone, all shot attempts (since blocked shots
taken here may be more representative of more “wide-open nets”, though
we don’t know this for sure.)”
- And when I tabulate Scoring Chances here, I use all Corsi events (shots/blocks/misses) from the “home plate” area.
Let’s compare what the three numbers tell us.
Mikael Backlund leads the way in Corsi, Scoring Chances and FN Scoring Chances. He’s really good, doncha know? When looking at Fenwick, Backlund is leaped over by Hudler, Gaudreau and Jooris, who leads the team. If you had said that two rookies would be amongst the best Flames in driving the play and creating offense, we all would’ve been very impressed. Which we are, by the by.
On the other hand, who should hang their heads in possession shame? Bollig is the worst regular in terms of Corsi, Fenwick and Scoring Chances, while Mason Raymond dwindles in FN Scoring Chances.
Most forwards get better – a lot better in Granlund’s case – in FN Scoring Chances compared to Corsi, as they are basically Corsi close to the net. That means most of ’em can drive the net and get shots in the high-percentage areas. I’m hesitant to say this contributes tremendously to Calgary out-kicking its coverage possession-wise this season because (a) it probably doesn’t and (b) the data’s not exhaustive enough to support that claim yet.
Forwards who are worse in FN Scoring Chances versus Corsi? Mostly just Mason Raymond, who has visibly shied away from contact since returning from a shoulder injury. Stajan’s numbers are close enough together to be considered even, and considering he’s the fourth line center and used in a defensive role, it makes complete sense.
Diaz has played a lot less than Brodie and Giordano and against lesser competition, so everyone chill. Beyond that, everything more or less unfolds the way you’d expect it to. Diaz leads in FN Scoring Chances while Russell lags behind. Giordano leads in Corsi, Fenwick and Scoring Chances, while Engelland lags behind in all three.
SUM IT UP
Team-wide, the Flames generate FN Scoring Chances at a 47.83% rate. This compares with a 45.3 Corsi percentage, 46.3 Fenwick percentage and 45.8 Scoring Chance percentage. So no matter how you slice it, the Flames are getting out-possessed and out-chanced.
Which makes the handful of players that do drive chances and possession very valuable for the team going forward.