The Numbers Round-Up – Round 1

The first round is over and the Calgary Flames have dispatched the Vancouver Canucks.

How did they do it?

Well, they were pretty damn good at home, not very good in Vancouver, and managed to do their best to minimize the effectiveness of the Sedins in the confines of the Saddledome.

FORWARDS

Home Away
Corsi Fenwick Corsi Fenwick
Monahan +3 +5 -27 -30
Hudler +3 +6 -26 -27
Gaudreau +3 +3 -20 -23
Bennett -14 -7 +3 E
Backlund -22 -11 +6 +2
Colborne -23 -15 -1 -4
Stajan -14 +1 +4 +10
Ferland -9 +8 +4 +8
Jones -10 +6 +7 +10
Bollig -2 +2 -5 E
Jooris +2 +8 -7 -4
Granlund n/a n/a -1 +2
Raymond -9 -3 -6 -7

(Granlund and Raymond split time.)

At home, the only line that significantly took it in the teeth was the Backlund/Bennett/Colborne trio. The Stajan line was given the sledding against the Sedins primarily, and while their Corsi was a bit dodgy over three games, their ability to block shots effectively meant that their Fenwick was pretty decent.

On the road, everyone was decent to good except for the Monahan line, which – as we’ve discussed earler in the series – is because they were targeted by the Canucks in a strength-versus-strength match-up with the Sedins.

DEFENDERS

Home Away
Corsi Fenwick Corsi Fenwick
Russell -21 -13 -18 -13
Wideman -14 -4 -11 -7
Engelland -18 +2 -14 -14
Brodie E +17 -12 -15
Schlemko E +5 +6 +3
Wotherspoon -11 -5 -1 -3
Potter n/a n/a +4 +7

(Wotherspoon and Potter split time.)

Russell and Wideman get the tough match-ups at home, while Brodie and the two guys he plays with (Engelland and Schlemko) have good numbers because they get the lesser lights. Not particularly shocking, but makes sense. Also impressive: the Corsi/Fenwick split – indicating blocks – for the majority of the top four defenders is utterly massive.

Nobody is all that great on the road, but their Corsi/Fenwick differentials also don’t vary much.

It seems to further support that the Flames were much more effective at home.

THE OTHER SIDE

I’m purposefully cherry-picking here just to provide a brief cross-section.

Home Away
Corsi Fenwick Corsi Fenwick
H.Sedin +32 +28 +37 +13
D.Sedin +27 +26 +34 +11
Bonino -14 -10 +3 +1
Vrbata -2 E +8 +1
Horvat -3 -3 E -8
Edler +8 +13 +4 -2
Tanev +9 +12 -5 -5
Bieksa -8 -8 +5 -7
Sbisa -16 -14 +9 -4

The Canucks top players were very good at home and pretty good on the road. But the depth players weren’t great in either area. Calgary seems to have won the depth-versus-depth match-up in terms of the analytics.

Oh, and also in terms of scoring goals and winning games.

  • wot96

    As opposed to being “quietly ineffective”, David Jones has been quietly effective in his role as a checking right winger and he has clearly chipped in on offence.

    I gave him some stick over the course of the year because he is highly paid and a bit brittle. But he has really come through in the playoffs, especially on the road. I still really don’t love that contract, but it is a ton (tonne) less unpalatable right now.

    • ChinookArchYYC

      Colburne does not belong in a top 6 role, and is frankly better suited for the 4th line. Swap Joris (or better yet Byron) in for Colburne and I think you’ll see a better result. In light of the fact that Bennett is a 18 year old rookie with less than 10 NHL games experience, he really should be better sheltered with 2 good possession players. Colburne struggled again last night, and I counted 2 shifts where he was okay, the rest saw big Joe turning the puck over, and generally confused without the puck.

  • Burnward

    Nice analysis, by the way Ryan. I was surprised by Backs last night. Not his best evening.

    And that half-assed backcheck….hooeeeyyy I was fuming after that one.

  • The GREAT Walter White

    Four words: Michael Freekin Freightrain Ferland!

    We slain the orca and now we go duck hunting! MF3 will be hungry for some duck sandwiches.

    Nuff said…

      • The GREAT Walter White

        “Charging” was the pro Canucks broadcasters futile attempt at saying: “he is hitting our guys too hard, someone please make him stop!”

        For me Ferland was the difference in this series.

        From the moment in game 1 when he dropped his gloves with Dorset and Dorset wisely chickened out it was clear that Ferland would punish these guys the whole series…..

        WW

  • The GREAT Walter White

    Does anyone know if last nights game is being rebroadcast?

    I didn’t record last nights game but I will want to watch it over and over and over again I’m sure…

    WW

  • If we’re to win this series, it’ll need to play out very similar to the last one. ie we will need to bring high intensity/high impact to home ice and win all 3 of the games in CGY. Then it’s just a matter of stealing one win in ANA (preferably one of the first 2). Knock wood…

    “knock knock”

  • KiLLKiND

    Guys stop complaining about corsi already it is a tool not the end all be all. While some extremists may take it too far on both sides it is a great tool that shows which lines did poorly in their matchups, and how certain players can really generate offense. Also having both Fenwick and Corsi is great and look at Engelland’s Fenwick at home it’s postive! Sure he might not be the world’s greatest D but he really stepped up his game of late and if Diaz can make it back we can have 6 D men Hartley isn’t afraid to use