Flames Prospect NHLE Update – November 19 2015

The Calgary Flames have a good number of prospects that aren’t presently playing professional hockey in North America. Following the lead of our friends/enemies over at Canucks Army, we thought it was prudent to provide a statistical update on some of the Flames young prospects.

Included in this update is each player’s NHLe, or NHL equivalency, a metric that converts their points-per-game production in their non-NHL league into an estimate of how that player would produce in the NHL (based upon past production from players from that league who’ve made the jump). Obviously some players drastically under-shoot their NHLe, while guys like Johnny Gaudreau somehow blow it out of the water.

For what it’s worth, Gaudreau’s NHLe in his final, Hobey Baker-winning college season was 54. Generally-speaking, NHLe figures of 30+ are pretty good; based on the conversion rates from league-to-league, at that point you’re getting players that are performing well in their league and out-performing most of their peer group.

CANADIAN HOCKEY LEAGUE

Name Pos DOB Age Team GP G A P PPG +/- PIM NHLe
Andrew Mangiapane LW 1996-04-04 19 Barrie (OHL) 19 15 14 29 1.53 +1 22 37.5
Rasmus Andersson D 1996-10-27 19 Barrie (OHL) 17 3 14 17 1.00 -1 18 24.6
Pavel Karnaukhov LW 1997-03-15 18 Calgary (WHL) 9 2 3 5 0.56 -5 19 11.8
Riley Bruce D 1997-07-16 18 North Bay (OHL) 19 1 5 6 0.32 -8 22 7.8
Keegan Kanzig D 1995-02-26 20 Calgary (WHL) 4 1 0 1 0.25 +5 8 5.3
  • Mangiapane has been superb this season. In terms of offensive production, he’s an absolute steal considering where he was taken in the 2015 Draft. He’s 8th in the OHL in scoring as I write this; the Flames got him in the sixth round. He represented the OHL in the Canada-Russia Series and was fine, but not terribly noticeable.
  • A teammate of Mangiapane in Barrie, Andersson is another really solid contributor – a point-per-game junior defender is tough to find. He’ll most likely be suiting up for his native Sweden at the World Juniors.
  • Karnaukhov hasn’t played since October 18 due to an upper-body injury. Before he was hurt, he was a pretty good player for the Hitmen. Considering that club doesn’t have Jake Virtanen and traded Chase Lang, expect Karnaukhov to get a ton of top-six minutes when he returns in the next week or so.
  • Bruce is super-tall but hasn’t filled out yet, and he’s getting a ton of ice-time on a North Bay club where he’s the third-oldest regular defender. At 18. He’s already doubled last season’s point totals and scored his first OHL goal early in the year. He’s a long-term project, but at least he’s showing some progress.
  • Kanzig scored a goal last night versus Prince George. He hasn’t played a ton yet, but at age 20 he’s a perfectly good stay-at-home junior defender. We still have no idea what he is as a pro, which may be problematic considering Andersson will likely be going pro next season.
Name Pos DOB Age Team GP Mins GA Shots Saves SV% GAA Record SO
Mason McDonald G 1996-04-23 19 Charlottetown (QMJHL) 13 771 43 424 381 .899 3.35 6-5-2 0
Nick Schneider G 1997-07-21 18 Medicine Hat (WHL) 9 515 35 244 209 .857 4.07 3-5-0 0

  • McDonald’s record isn’t amazing, but in the defensively-challenged QMJHL his save percentage is 8th-best. He’s considered a strong contender to be Canada’s starting goalie at the World Juniors.
  • Schneider hasn’t played a ton lately. First, the Tigers brought in veteran Austin Lotz – who subsequently got injured and is out fo the season. Looking for another veteran mentor for Schneider, the Tigers brought in former Hitmen back-up Mack Shields. Schneider’s still super-young, but he’ll need to play a lot to improve and I don’t really get what he can learn from a 20-year-old WHL depth goalie.

NCAA

Name Pos DOB Age Team GP G A P PPG +/- PIM NHLe
Mark Jankowski C 1994-09-13 21 Providence College (HE) 9 4 7 11 1.22 +7 0 33.1
John Gilmour D 1993-05-17 22 Providence College (HE) 8 2 5 7 0.88 -1 2 23.7
Matt Deblouw C/W 1993-09-17 22 Michigan State (B10) 4 1 1 2 0.50 -4 4 12.3
Brandon Hickey D 1996-04-13 19 Boston University (HE) 10 4 0 4 0.40 -1 14 10.8
Tim Harrison RW 1994-01-11 21 Colgate (ECAC) 11 3 1 4 0.36 -7 2 7.8

  • Jankowski is second only to Mangiapane in NHLe thus far – which is kind-of neat when you consider one’s a tall kid drafted early and the other’s a small kid drafted late – and both guys are probably going to be in minor-pro next season. Jankowski is among his conference’s scoring leaders, and has progressed his NHLe in college from 14 to 17 to 19 during his past three seasons. We’ll see if he can keep it up.
  • Granted, the sample size is small, but Gilmour has quietly been really effective at getting his name on the score-sheet. His NHLe has wobbled between around 10-15 during his previous three seasons.
  • Deblouw is out with a knee injury.
  • Hickey’s NHLe last season was 11.2, and that was with the entire team getting a nice bump from Jack Eichel being insanely good at the ice hockey. His numbers are flat compared to last season, which is probably what many expected as they transition into a post-Eichel world.
  • Harrison’s one of the older players on his team and has yet to define himself as an offensive leader. For a college player, that’s probably not a good sign. (When your NHLe is lower than defensemen in your own league/team, you should be worried.)

EUROPE

Name Pos DOB Age Team GP G A P PPG +/- PIM NHLe
Adam Ollas-Mattsson D 1996-07-30 19 Djurgardens IF (SHL) 14 0 2 2 0.14 -2 0 6.4
Rushan Rafikov D 1995-05-15 20 Admiral Vladivostok (KHL) 15 0 0 0 0.00 -4 4 0.0
  • Ollas-Mattsson has, at 19, become a regular on a good team in a good pro league. Granted, they’re bringing him along slowly so I wouldn’t expect his offensive numbers to be much to write home about. He’s also put up a goal and an assist in 5 Champions League games, though Djurgardens was knocked out of the tournament by Lukko.
  • Rafikov has bounced around a lot this year, playing with the junior Loko Yaroslavl, the minor-pro HK Ryazan and both Lokomotiv Yaroslavl and Admiral Vladivostok in the KHL. He hasn’t gotten any points yet, and probably what he needs at this point is some stability. And a point or two.
  • beloch

    It looks like you’re using 0.33 as the conversion factor for the NCAA. Is that right? In the past most have used 0.41. That would bring Jankowski’s NHLE up to 41.0, which is a nice bump. I noticed this because Gaudreau’s NHLE was calculated as 67 at the time, not 54.

    • Byron Bader

      Vollman treats the NCAA and Hockey East differently. Like you, I still just go with the 0.41 factor.

      Hitting a 30+ older than 20 is indicative of “this guy will make the NHL and play at least a few seasons” but it’s not normally indicative of an impactful offensive guy. But still hoping this guy can work out. Sounds like a decent two-way, faceoff guy at least.

  • mattyc

    Hockey points:

    – certainly good to see Mangiapane and Rasmussen get some points, though I suspect part of it has to do with how good the team is this year. Regardless, its a positive sign.

    Stats points:
    – These stats kinda need confidence intervals or some measure of uncertainty. Some NHLE factors have stonger relationships than others. On top of that, you can’t give the same creedence to (for ex) Jankowski’s NHLE over 9 games that you can to Mangiapane’s over ~30.

  • Byron Bader

    ^ based on those factors

    Jankowski has 5 points in 2 games vs NCHC (84.05 NHLe)
    1 Point in 2 games vs Big-Ten (14.35 NHLe)
    2 Points in 2 games against ECAC (18.86 NHLe)
    1 point in 2 games vs Hockey East (15.17 NHLe)
    2 Points in 1 game against AHA (no conversion factor?)

    So weighting all of those together and cutting out the Holy Cross game we get an NHLe of 33.1 for Jankowski.

    Really hope the kid lives up to his potential. God knows, Monahan looks like Ryan Smyth while Draisaitl is starting to look like Malkin out there. Need an elite 1-2 punch at center, Bennett-Jankowski or Bennett-Matthews.

    • ClayBort

      You can just use the H-East factor for all the games. The way these are calculated, the inter-conference play is already factored in. It actually boosts Janko to 37.1

  • clib542

    Take away the first game and Jankowski has 7 points in 8 games and 14 shots. 3 of those games, he registered less than 2 shots. That first game vs Miami really makes a big difference with a small game sample. Jankowski is a senior, if he had any future as a NHLer, he should be dominating.

    • OKG

      Why would you “take away the first game”? That’s like saying “Take away Malkin’s 4 point game the other night and he’s only 12 points in 17 games”

      Facts: Jankowski is

      1) A pass first player. His shot totals mean nothing. When the shot is there he takes it. He doesn’t struggle to create shots or get shots through traffic or hit the net – he just doesn’t toedrag into a wrister every time he has the puck. He could, but he doesn’t.

      2) Leading that team in goals among forwards.

      3) Tied for second in assists on that team in assists among forwards.

      4) Leading that team in +/- among forwards at +7 (second place is his own winger Tanev at +5)

      5) Highly concious of keeping his shifts short. Once he gets the puck into the offensive zone he’s the first man off the ice on a line change and this keeps him fresh to be effective every shift which is important because he takes the most D-zone starts and a lot of special teams ice time. He could easily stay another 20-30 seconds every shift padding his personal stats.

      6) Still growing stronger physically. He’s not a fully developed man. He’s only now able to win some board battles and even then he’s got so much muscle mass “weighting” to be added to his frame. When he makes the NHL he will be ~220lbs with a strong base.

      7) Playing with wingers (Mingoia) who play a heavy board game. As a center his job is to support the play without exposing the team to breakouts the other way and getting to position in quiet areas to receive the puck. Whether the puck actually comes to him is out of his control.

      The way you describe his game one would think he’s just a nobody. He’s the best all-around forward on the best all-around line on the best all-around team who happen to be the defending champions. A team that no longer even has its star goalie and still has yet to lose a hockey game.

      I said before this season that I don’t expect Jankowski to dominate scoring because the system he plays in does not promote individual numbers especially out of centers. Now I would still love if he gets himself up to around 1.35 PPG but even if he doesn’t break 1.0 PPG by season’s end I am not remotely concerned because my eye test gives me no reason to be. I see Jankowski’s weaknesses (board play mostly) as easily correctable as he contually gets stronger, and his strengths to be highlighted the minute he jumps into the Flames system with linemates suited to his play.

        • OKG

          Even if you insist on pretending he didn’t have a strong first game, 7 points in 8 games is 0.875 PPG. He was 0.730 PPG last season. He was 0.641 PPG the season prior. He was 0.529 PPG the season prior. That is a steady upwards trend. And of his only two pointless games, one he left halfway into the game with an injury. The other pointless game was, last Saturday. If you look at either of Walman’s two goals in that game, Jankowski is on the ice for both of them, he just doesn’t get points because he’s not set up on the perimeter. That board play guy.

          • ClayBort

            so at that rate, he’s ready for the NHL in 2021? 2022? His progression isn’t disimilar from most college players. You expect a steeper trajectory from top prospects.

      • clib542

        Yes, if I were to describe how Malkin has played this year to someone who hasn’t seen him play, 12 points in 17 games is a better description of his season than saying 16 in 18.

        I could respond to everyone of your points, but I fail to see how they are FACTS.

    • BurningSensation

      Yeah sure let’s arbitrarily remove his best game because…’reasons’.

      Did you remove the stats from every other player to play that team? Or take everyone elses best game away?

      • clib542

        “A mean is an average of a set of data. A trimmed mean (sometimes called a truncated mean) is similar to a mean, but it trims any outliers. Outliers can affect the mean (especially if there are just one or two very large values), so a trimmed mean can often be a better fit for data sets with erratic high or low values or for extremely skewed distributions.”

        #reasons

        • Johnny Goooooooaldreau

          Thank you kind Sir for the lesson in Math and Statistics, but this is hockey we are talking about.

          Oh, and since you are so smart about such things, I am wondering why you didn’t also take away his lowest point total game? Wouldn’t it be standard procedure to remove the high and low markers not just the high?

          #atleastbecorrectifyouwanttodisJanko

        • clib542

          So if you want.. lets take away his worst game as well

          so after 7 games

          3 Goals
          4 Assists
          14 Shots

          there are lots of players in the NCAA right now that can do that and many of them won’t even get a sniff of the NHL

          • Johnny Goooooooaldreau

            It’s not Mark’s fault the Flames picked him where they did. If Jankowski had been picked with the Sieloof pick in the second round nobody would have a problem with how he is developing. Treliving has mentioned before, that it doesn’t matter where you were picked, it only matters what you do with your opportunity when it comes.

            Janko’s time will come less than a week after his college season ends. I for one would love to see him succeed. Why wouldn’t you?

          • clib542

            I guess you haven’t read all my comments about Janko. I’d love for him to become a regular NHLer, another asset the team can use would be great. His development isn’t dependant on my opinion. My opinion is based on other college hockey players before Jankowski. You’re right, it doesn’t matter where he was drafted, the only reason this debate always happens however is because he was drafted in the first round. If he was a 7th round pick, his numbers still wouldn’t suggest him making the NHL full time. He would be a great 7th round pick, that’s it.

        • BurningSensation

          Sure except nobody uses that methodology when calculating NHLE.

          Like I said, arbitrary.

          Not to mention that you are taking an already small sample size and making it arbitrarily smaller.

          It’s exaxtly like you are inventing reasons to make Jankowski look worse than he does.

      • ClayBort

        The scientific reasons for removing extreme data points are sound. Tail events happen, but if you are trying to dig down into what is really happening, they can have far too big an influence on averages, especially in smaller samples. This is common practice in scientific research.

        And the Malkin argument made by someone else about his 4 pt game… that doesn’t fly. Malkin has 20 4pt games in his career, suggesting this wasn’t a one-off occurrence. Also, Malkin has a sample size of several hundred games of which to analyze, meaning the impact of these 20 games is negligible.

        What was the first game of the year for Jankowski? 4 pts? Has he ever had more than a 2pt game prior to that? If we are analyzing a sample of just 9 games, that 4pt game brings his average up to 1.2pts/g, compared to .88pts/game with out it. That one game swung his ppg rate by 39%. That’s drastic. By the end of the year, that game can be included in the analysis, as it will only be 2.5% of the total sample assuming he plays 40 games.

        • BurningSensation

          There is an established method for working out a players’ NHLE and it doesn’t include cherry picking which games you are going to count and which ones you aren’t.

          • clib542

            I’m not looking at NHLe for the 9 games he has played. NHLe is great, but really doesn’t do much with a handful of games. I am looking at averages, and his last 8 games aren’t good. If Jankowski still has a 37 NHLe after game 30, well then great, but he is going to need a few more 4 point games in there.

          • ClayBort

            Come on already. Removing one game where a guy gets a stupid amount of points that he’s never gotten before when trying to determine a statistical average is just plain common sense.

            If a player had a 10 point game and then only 10 more points in his next 20 games, how would you view him? I’m pretty sure as a 0.5 ppg player, not a ppg game player. An extreme example, but the point is valid.

    • OKG

      Full credit to Demko, his shutout streak is impressive.

      That said I still think McDonald has more upside and is a hell of a prospect. He’s a bit more raw right now while Demko is very polished, but there are a few elements of McDonald’s game that, when they’re both 23-24 and playing in higher leagues (hopefully NHL) will give Mason the edge.

      From what I’ve seen I consider Demko to be a pure butterfly goalie, while Mason is more of a hybrid type. I’m probably a bit biased towards hybrid types.

  • everton fc

    Man, if Jankowski fills out and can develop an edge to his game… The latter I am suspect about… But anyway, if he continues to do what he’s doing, Feaster may look like a genius.

    • clib542

      Olli Maata went next in the draft. It would take a lot more than him continuing what he’s doing for Feaster to look like a genius.

      And, are there examples of skill players who have successfully ‘developed an edge’ at this point? My experience playing hockey is that you got it, or you don’t. And skill guys without an edge are never going to ‘develop an edge’ once they reach the NHL. This guy was drafted as a lanky soft skill guy. He shot blocking and penalty totals would suggest he is still exactly that, and is hardly going to change when he gets to the big show. He has 0 PM. I’d say his edge is as dull as it gets.

  • mattyc

    With the sole objective of getting as many thumbs down as possible:

    If you’re going to throw out data, you better have a pretty good reason for it. Conversely, if you’re going to ‘explain away’ the data, you better have an even better one.

    This moment in data philosophy has been brought to you by Mattyc, have a nice day.

  • KiLLKiND

    I agree with removing Jankow’s first game as it seems to be more of an anomaly and nothing like that from him has happened since or really before…. so he’s basically a point per game player in the NCAA which is fine. We have to stop viewing him as a first round pick and just think of him as a prospect we have now. if he was taken later on in the draft we would be fine with his progression.

    \Progression is all I hoped to see from him this year and maybe for a different team to sign him for the 2nd round draft pick instead of him lol. however he seems to me like he would make a fine 4th line centre on a contending team in the future. While most hope for more out of a “1st” we can’t change where he was drafted and as long as he can play in the NHL as a regular that is still better than many of our previous 1st round picks…. Nemisz

    On a side note does he remind anybody else of Colborne? big centre with nice hands and lots of signs of potential but well Colborne.

  • KiLLKiND

    It seems that thee are more college players around that don’t live up to their expectations…take for instance, Justin shultz, the sought after free agent who has been a dud so far for the oilers; the Flames have a couple or so also.

    I would like to see Jankowski grow and mature into an NHL player. But, NHLe’s are not fact, just statistical exercise.

  • My biggest disappointment on this was McDonald. Thought he would be better than 8th best save percentage in his league. Biggest positive surprise? None really but good to see that Jankowski is still trending in the right direction albeit slowly.

    • BurningSensation

      yes, his save percentage ain’t pretty. There was one game where he let in 6 goals on 25 shots and got pulled.

      If you pull a “trimmed mean” and cut out that game, his save percentage would be 0.907 which would be in a three-way tie for fourth best.

      We should start pulling “trimmed means” for Hiller, Ramo, and Ortio too. It’s the new thing (when convenient).

  • ClayBort

    Or a goalie who just hit absolutely shelled for one game. It would be logical to remove that game when trying to get an accurate view of his fame.

    The Janko supporters are just sour that his points are slipping, so they’re clinging to the statistical anomaly.

  • ClayBort

    I’ll be the first to admit i believe janko can be a top 6 player but at the same time I understand taking his 4 pt game out of the equation. Look at Sam Gagner do you think this guy has potential to get 8pts in a game or do you think he got lucky