The Calgary Flames have a good number of prospects that aren’t presently playing professional hockey in North America. Following the lead of our friends/enemies over at Canucks Army, we thought it was prudent to provide a statistical update on some of the Flames young prospects.
Included in this update is each player’s NHLe, or NHL equivalency, a metric that converts their points-per-game production in their non-NHL league into an estimate of how that player would produce in the NHL (based upon past production from players from that league who’ve made the jump). Obviously some players drastically under-shoot their NHLe, while guys like Johnny Gaudreau somehow blow it out of the water.
For what it’s worth, Gaudreau’s NHLe in his final, Hobey Baker-winning college season was 54. Generally-speaking, NHLe figures of 30+ are pretty good; based on the conversion rates from league-to-league, at that point you’re getting players that are performing well in their league and out-performing most of their peer group.
CANADIAN HOCKEY LEAGUE
|Andrew Mangiapane||LW||1996-04-04||19||Barrie (OHL)||19||15||14||29||1.53||+1||22||37.5|
|Rasmus Andersson||D||1996-10-27||19||Barrie (OHL)||17||3||14||17||1.00||-1||18||24.6|
|Pavel Karnaukhov||LW||1997-03-15||18||Calgary (WHL)||9||2||3||5||0.56||-5||19||11.8|
|Riley Bruce||D||1997-07-16||18||North Bay (OHL)||19||1||5||6||0.32||-8||22||7.8|
|Keegan Kanzig||D||1995-02-26||20||Calgary (WHL)||4||1||0||1||0.25||+5||8||5.3|
- Mangiapane has been superb this season. In terms of offensive production, he’s an absolute steal considering where he was taken in the 2015 Draft. He’s 8th in the OHL in scoring as I write this; the Flames got him in the sixth round. He represented the OHL in the Canada-Russia Series and was fine, but not terribly noticeable.
- A teammate of Mangiapane in Barrie, Andersson is another really solid contributor – a point-per-game junior defender is tough to find. He’ll most likely be suiting up for his native Sweden at the World Juniors.
- Karnaukhov hasn’t played since October 18 due to an upper-body injury. Before he was hurt, he was a pretty good player for the Hitmen. Considering that club doesn’t have Jake Virtanen and traded Chase Lang, expect Karnaukhov to get a ton of top-six minutes when he returns in the next week or so.
- Bruce is super-tall but hasn’t filled out yet, and he’s getting a ton of ice-time on a North Bay club where he’s the third-oldest regular defender. At 18. He’s already doubled last season’s point totals and scored his first OHL goal early in the year. He’s a long-term project, but at least he’s showing some progress.
- Kanzig scored a goal last night versus Prince George. He hasn’t played a ton yet, but at age 20 he’s a perfectly good stay-at-home junior defender. We still have no idea what he is as a pro, which may be problematic considering Andersson will likely be going pro next season.
|Mason McDonald||G||1996-04-23||19||Charlottetown (QMJHL)||13||771||43||424||381||.899||3.35||6-5-2||0|
|Nick Schneider||G||1997-07-21||18||Medicine Hat (WHL)||9||515||35||244||209||.857||4.07||3-5-0||0|
- McDonald’s record isn’t amazing, but in the defensively-challenged QMJHL his save percentage is 8th-best. He’s considered a strong contender to be Canada’s starting goalie at the World Juniors.
- Schneider hasn’t played a ton lately. First, the Tigers brought in veteran Austin Lotz – who subsequently got injured and is out fo the season. Looking for another veteran mentor for Schneider, the Tigers brought in former Hitmen back-up Mack Shields. Schneider’s still super-young, but he’ll need to play a lot to improve and I don’t really get what he can learn from a 20-year-old WHL depth goalie.
|Mark Jankowski||C||1994-09-13||21||Providence College (HE)||9||4||7||11||1.22||+7||0||33.1|
|John Gilmour||D||1993-05-17||22||Providence College (HE)||8||2||5||7||0.88||-1||2||23.7|
|Matt Deblouw||C/W||1993-09-17||22||Michigan State (B10)||4||1||1||2||0.50||-4||4||12.3|
|Brandon Hickey||D||1996-04-13||19||Boston University (HE)||10||4||0||4||0.40||-1||14||10.8|
|Tim Harrison||RW||1994-01-11||21||Colgate (ECAC)||11||3||1||4||0.36||-7||2||7.8|
- Jankowski is second only to Mangiapane in NHLe thus far – which is kind-of neat when you consider one’s a tall kid drafted early and the other’s a small kid drafted late – and both guys are probably going to be in minor-pro next season. Jankowski is among his conference’s scoring leaders, and has progressed his NHLe in college from 14 to 17 to 19 during his past three seasons. We’ll see if he can keep it up.
- Granted, the sample size is small, but Gilmour has quietly been really effective at getting his name on the score-sheet. His NHLe has wobbled between around 10-15 during his previous three seasons.
- Deblouw is out with a knee injury.
- Hickey’s NHLe last season was 11.2, and that was with the entire team getting a nice bump from Jack Eichel being insanely good at the ice hockey. His numbers are flat compared to last season, which is probably what many expected as they transition into a post-Eichel world.
- Harrison’s one of the older players on his team and has yet to define himself as an offensive leader. For a college player, that’s probably not a good sign. (When your NHLe is lower than defensemen in your own league/team, you should be worried.)
|Adam Ollas-Mattsson||D||1996-07-30||19||Djurgardens IF (SHL)||14||0||2||2||0.14||-2||0||6.4|
|Rushan Rafikov||D||1995-05-15||20||Admiral Vladivostok (KHL)||15||0||0||0||0.00||-4||4||0.0|
- Ollas-Mattsson has, at 19, become a regular on a good team in a good pro league. Granted, they’re bringing him along slowly so I wouldn’t expect his offensive numbers to be much to write home about. He’s also put up a goal and an assist in 5 Champions League games, though Djurgardens was knocked out of the tournament by Lukko.
- Rafikov has bounced around a lot this year, playing with the junior Loko Yaroslavl, the minor-pro HK Ryazan and both Lokomotiv Yaroslavl and Admiral Vladivostok in the KHL. He hasn’t gotten any points yet, and probably what he needs at this point is some stability. And a point or two.