Andrew Mangiapane is having a monster season in the OHL

Over the weekend, Calgary Flames prospect Andrew Mangiapane hit two pretty big milestones.

The Ontario Hockey League star scored his 50th goal of the season for the Barrie Colts and generated his 100th point of the season, giving him back-to-back 100-point campaigns. 

Mangiapane is having a monster year. Where does his progression stack up compared to other historic Flames draft picks?

We broke the numbers down.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

There are seven seasons, by six players drafted by the Flames since 2000, that broke the 40.0 NHLE (NHL Equivalence) threshold. These are the seasons that you could consider to be monster seasons when you correct for differences between leagues, looking at draft seasons and onward.

  • Johnny Gaudreau (2013-14, Hockey East): 60.4
  • Andrew Mangiapane (2015-16, OHL): 46.6
  • Sven Baertschi (2011-12, WHL): 44.5
  • Johnny Gaudreau (2012-13, Hockey East): 44.0
  • Dan Ryder (2006-07, OHL): 41.7
  • Matthew Lombardi (2001-02, QMJHL): 41.6
  • Sam Bennett (2013-14, OHL): 41.2

Aside: holy crap, Gaudreau was a monster in college.

PROGRESSION CONTEXT

Here are the same players, comparing their draft season and the three that followed it. Obviously Mangiapane and Bennett haven’t completed three seasons since their first year of draft eligibility, so bear that in mind.

Player Draft
Info
League Draft
Year
Draft
+1
Draft
+2
Draft
+3
Andrew
Mangiapane
2014,
undrafted
OHL 19.4 39.5 46.6
Sam
Bennett
2014,
4th
OHL 41.2 56.3 39.8
Johnny
Gaudreau
2011,
104th
NCAA n/a
(USHL)
30.2 44.0 60.4
Sven
Baertschi
2011,
13th
WHL 28.6 44.5 31.5
(AHL)
27.4
(AHL)
Dan Ryder 2005,
74th
OHL 31.1 32.6 41.7 n/a
(AHL)
Matthew
Lombardi
2000,
215th
QMJHL 14.3 19.6 41.6 23.4
(AHL)

NOTES:

  • Andrew Mangiapane was drafted after his Draft+1 season after going through the 2014 Draft unclaimed.
  • Sam Bennett played 11 OHL games in his Draft+1 season. He’s included here because I arbitrarily decided he played enough for it to count.
  • There’s no commonly accepted NHLE conversion rate for the USHL, but Gaudreau was a 1.09 points-per-game player. If we estimate that the USHL is two-thirds as good as the WHL, that’s about 16.2 NHLE. If you look at it that way, Gaudreau has almost doubled his productivity every year for the last three or four years. He’s insanely good.
  • Sven Baertschi split time between the AHL and NHL in his Draft+2 and Draft+3 seasons. We focus just on the AHL for sake of simplicity.
  • Dan Ryder played six games in his Draft+3 season in the AHL. He was suspended by the Saint John Flames and began a downward spiral that ended up with him turning himself in for an armed robbery in 2010.

SO WHAT?

Based on the admittedly-limited sample size, Mangiapane’s offensive production gives him a very reasonable chance of being a productive NHLer.

  • beloch

    The fact that he’s ahead of Gaudreau for his draft+1 and draft+2 seasons is impressive. However, Mangiapane was drafted a year older than Gaudreau was, and Gaudreau was playing in a tougher league in those seasons. So Mangiapane is a fair ways behind Gaudreau if you compare the years where Mangiapane is the same age. Still, a NHLE above 40 for a 19-year old is very promising.

    What remains to be seen is if Mangiapane can adapt his game to pro leagues. I wouldn’t pencil him into the Flames’ lineup sheet just yet, but Mangiapane has massively exceeded expectations for a sixth round pick.

    • JMK

      Ryan has used 2014 as Mangiapane’s draft season not last year. So using their comparisons is fair in that sense. And NHLe tries to consolidate the differences in quality of leagues. So it is fair to say that Mangiapane is doing just as well as Gaudreau so far, albeit based purely on an NHLe perspective and how much weight you give that stat.

      Can’t wait to see this kid in the AHL next year. And Andersson for that matter.

  • Derzie

    Should never have dropped so far. His NHLE during the draft last year was in the top 10. Playing the “just pick the best NHLE” for those of us who don’t know hockey intricacies, I was very happy with Mangiapane landing in our lap. When I looked at his numbers I thought he must have serious character flaws for him to be passed over in early rounds. Here’s hoping he keeps rising the ranks.

  • Byron Bader

    Fun fact … 93% of players in the past 10 years that registered a 40+ nhle before turning 20 made the NHL and 58% of those have turned into legit scorers.

    Very confident this guy is going to be a player. At worst he’s probably a Paul Byron type. Ferocious penalty killer … with blazing speed, chips in goals and plays for a decade.

  • DoubleDIon

    Reading those names depresses me a little bit. I remember all the dashed hopes for offensive prospects in the 90’s and early 2000’s. It seemed like even the odd draft pick I actually liked had their development and career stagnate for one reason or another.

  • EhPierre

    Looking at Bennet, his NHLE isn’t what I thought it may have been, it’s kinda low. I know NHLE isn’t everything and when I do watch the games, Bennet looks like a beast. I along with a few people on this site believe he’s gonna be our elite 1C in the near future.

    Can anyone compare NHLE from other elite centres around the league so we have something to compare it with Bennet? I’m just curious how he stacks up; whether if his NHLE is comparable with other 1C’s or if we’re just thinking of too much of a lofty goal for the kid.

  • FireScorpion

    Mangiapane the best thing right now. Look out Poirier and Klimchuk another challenger has stepped into the ring. An interesting competition there between the 3 1st rounders (And Hunter) who were all picked close together and now Mangiapane.

  • Hubcap1

    I guess it’s been touched on but I wish Dan Ryder all the best, It is tough when your life goes off the rails. Getting back to some type of normal isn’t easy.

  • KACaribou

    OMG! Bennett’s NHLe isn’t much over 40! I think we had better try to get rid of him now!

    On the other hand, I wonder why the Flames moved Baertschi when his NHLe was so high? Idiots?

    Kidding. It’s an interesting graph.

    Bring it on if Mangiapane is another Johnny Hockey. I am not sure even Flames fans realize we get to watch possibly the most exciting player in the NHL 82 times a season (or more).

      • KACaribou

        I think the Flames understood his psyche… they just didn’t like it.

        On the other hand, I wish Sven the best. I hoped like crazy he’d be a superstar in the league when he was with the Flames. I don’t now that he’s on the Canucks mind you.

  • Dan the flames fan

    One thing I like about the kid is his tenacity. Tell him that he can’t do it, and he works to prove otherwise. That same attitude existed in Theo Fleury. We can only hope that he has the same drive and intensity! If he does, he may be in the NHL sooner then we think.

  • BlueMoonNigel

    A big good man takes a good little man every time, and the NHL is chock-a-block of big good men.

    Not saying Magpie shouldn’t get a chance with the Flames, but don’t let the success of Gaudreau make you think the above maxim is wonky.

    For every Theo Fleury, there are hundreds of Dale Derkatches.

    • McRib

      Hahahah, Dale Derkatch Is literally not even 5’5″ (he was the Bantam AAA coach at Notre Dame when I was in Midget AAA there) Gaudreau and Fleury would both have multiple inches on Derkatch. Mangiapane is 5’10” he would honestly tower over Derkatch

  • KiLLKiND

    With all this hype around Mangiapaine what would you guys think about making a trade for his higher scoring right wing, right shooting line mate? Kevin Leblanc was also drafted in the 6th round last year and has 124 pts in 62 games compared to Mangiapane’s 101pts in 56 games.

    I highly doubt San Jose is eager to part with him, but we have plenty of assets from prospects to picks. Personally I would be fine with trading Dallas’s 2nd if it stays a 2nd or a 3rd for him. We all know how barren our RW cupboard is, and having played with Mangiapane I’m sure our scouts have seen this guy play a lot. Good asset management is one thing but if we have to “lose” a trade to get this player it could turn out to be an actual win-win as everything I’ve read so far about him has been positive.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=145502

    • Baalzamon

      It’s Labanc, not Lablanc, and he’s old enough that he could have played this season in the AHL if he was actually that good.

      Personally, I think Mangiapane is the better prospect. Not that Labanc is a bad one, but he’s no star in the making.

  • McRib

    Andrew Mangiapane in the games I have watched of Barrie this year has been an absolute possession, forecheck monster. The kid has such a high ceiling. How he fell through the draft in 2014 and to us in the sixth round in 2015 is baffling…. Paul Byron put up decent points his junior career, but remember he was doing it primarily thanks to Claude Giroux. Mangiapane has much better puck skills than Byron for those making that comparable. Leblanc his teammates has more points, but honestly when I have watched Barrie Mangiapane has driven possession much more often. I think scouts must have thought Mangiapane was benefiting from playing with other skilled forwards on Barrie and discounted his point totals, but honestly from what I have seen he is the guy in the corners every night doing the dirty work for that team.

  • RKD

    This guy could be one of those diamonds in the rough a sixth round guy overlooked. Giordano was undrafted, Gaudreau was taken in the 4th round. Guys from the OHL can turn out pretty good, see Sean Monahan.

  • The Last Big Bear

    I talk about this a lot, but you can’t use a player’s NHL production as his NHLe.

    NHLe is what a guy can be predicted to produce the FOLLOWING year if he goes to the NHL.

    So for an 19 year old in the WHL, an NHLe of 40 means that similar players can be expected to produce an average of 40 points the FOLLOWING year (ie when they are 20).

    A 19 year old in the NHL producing 40 points in the big show can be expected to score more than 40 points in the FOLLOWING season. If 19 year old kids in the NHL scoring 40 points in the big show go on to score an average of 50 points in the 20 year old season (just making up a number), then a 40 point kid should be given an NHLe of 50 (in this example).

    Using NHL points and NHLe interchangeably short-changes kids who have already made the show (like Bennett in this case). B