Over the weekend, Calgary Flames prospect Andrew Mangiapane hit two pretty big milestones.
The Ontario Hockey League star scored his 50th goal of the season for the Barrie Colts and generated his 100th point of the season, giving him back-to-back 100-point campaigns.
Mangiapane is having a monster year. Where does his progression stack up compared to other historic Flames draft picks?
We broke the numbers down.
There are seven seasons, by six players drafted by the Flames since 2000, that broke the 40.0 NHLE (NHL Equivalence) threshold. These are the seasons that you could consider to be monster seasons when you correct for differences between leagues, looking at draft seasons and onward.
- Johnny Gaudreau (2013-14, Hockey East): 60.4
- Andrew Mangiapane (2015-16, OHL): 46.6
- Sven Baertschi (2011-12, WHL): 44.5
- Johnny Gaudreau (2012-13, Hockey East): 44.0
- Dan Ryder (2006-07, OHL): 41.7
- Matthew Lombardi (2001-02, QMJHL): 41.6
- Sam Bennett (2013-14, OHL): 41.2
Aside: holy crap, Gaudreau was a monster in college.
Here are the same players, comparing their draft season and the three that followed it. Obviously Mangiapane and Bennett haven’t completed three seasons since their first year of draft eligibility, so bear that in mind.
- Andrew Mangiapane was drafted after his Draft+1 season after going through the 2014 Draft unclaimed.
- Sam Bennett played 11 OHL games in his Draft+1 season. He’s included here because I arbitrarily decided he played enough for it to count.
- There’s no commonly accepted NHLE conversion rate for the USHL, but Gaudreau was a 1.09 points-per-game player. If we estimate that the USHL is two-thirds as good as the WHL, that’s about 16.2 NHLE. If you look at it that way, Gaudreau has almost doubled his productivity every year for the last three or four years. He’s insanely good.
- Sven Baertschi split time between the AHL and NHL in his Draft+2 and Draft+3 seasons. We focus just on the AHL for sake of simplicity.
- Dan Ryder played six games in his Draft+3 season in the AHL. He was suspended by the Saint John Flames and began a downward spiral that ended up with him turning himself in for an armed robbery in 2010.
Based on the admittedly-limited sample size, Mangiapane’s offensive production gives him a very reasonable chance of being a productive NHLer.