Year End Review of the Edmonton Oilers

It is mid-April and after a difficult and disappointing
season marred by injuries throughout the lineup, the Edmonton Oilers are looking at a top
end draft pick and facing some significant roster changes under their new
General Manager.

Is it 2010 or 2016?

The Edmonton Oilers.

They’re like the punchline to a joke that has long stopped
being funny.

At the beginning of the year, and again at the halfway
point, I went through the Canucks, Oilers and Flames to predict what might be a
reasonable season for each team. Today I’m reviewing the Oilers’ season with
those initial projections in mind.

What Was Said

Here are some of the things that I wrote at the beginning of
the season:

1.       Based on my projections above I’ve got the
Oilers scoring 227 goals this year.

2.       The defense is going to be a work in
progress right until the end of the year unless we see a big trade bring in an
established veteran who can fairly and effectively be called a 1st pairing
defender. This group is going to struggle to keep on a level with the forward

3.       The goaltending looks to be improved, by how
much remains to be seen. However, working out a .914 team sv% averaged between
Talbot and either Scrivens or Nilsson puts the Oilers 10th in the league last
season, just ahead of the Winnipeg Jets and behind the Penguins.

4.       The playoffs are probably still a way’s off,
but they could find themselves at least in the conversation. Let’s say 4th in
the Division, 10th in the conference and somewhere around 19th in the League.

5.       What’s the worst-case scenario? Finishing in
the bottom five, drafting 6th overall and trading away Eberle or Hall and
Yakupov out of panic.

And here are the results:

The Oilers scored 203 goals this year, off the
mark by 24 goals. Given the number of injuries I believe that my original
estimate may have been too conservative for a healthy roster.

The defense for the Oilers’ last three NHL games
featured a defense group included three players with fewer than 100 NHL games
played, and as a group they averaged 237 NHL games played. Two of the players
began the season in the AHL and one was a waiver-wire pickup at the trade
deadline. The defense was an already-rickety vessel held together with bailing
twine and prayer by season’s end. There were rumours of a Nugent-Hopkins for Seth Jones trade that Peter Chiarelli later denied. Injuries likely scuttled any attempt to make such a move.

The Oilers managed a team sv% of 0.905, up from
last season’s disastrous 0.888. This alone may be one of the most significant
developments for the team in the last five years.

The Oilers finished 7th in the
division, 15th in the conference and 29th overall. Not
even close.

They did finish in the bottom five, the lottery
results have yet to determine where the team will draft but they can draft no
later than 5th overall. More importantly, Peter Chiarelli did not
panic during the season and make any rash moves but will likely move at least
one of the bodies listed above, perhaps two or even all of the above, this
off-season as he addresses the defense.

This season wasn’t pretty but, and this speaks to the
incredibly low levels this franchise and its fans have seen over the past
decade, things actually appeared to be looking up this season.

Because Oilers? Because Injuries!

Connor McDavid missed half a season after breaking his
collarbone when he was railroaded into the end boards. Oscar Klefbom only
played 30 games after suffering a broken finger and then developing a staph
infection in his foot due to an ill-fitting skate. Add to that extended games
missed by Eberle, Pouliot, Davidson, Gryba, Yakupov and Nugent-Hopkins and you
have a roster that was already in tough competing for mediocrity now completely
undermined by injuries.

Overall the list of walking wounded and games missed looks
like this:


On the whole, just over one-third of the season was lost by
the Oilers’ top two centers, three of their top six wingers, and three of their
six defenders including two of their top three at that position.

I despise that old tripe about “injuries are not an excuse”.
No, they are not but they are an explanation and to wave them away as
unimportant is a lazy act of willful ignorance.

Now if someone wants to discuss injuries as they relate to
roster depth, that is fair and worth your time. But if someone had the temerity
to tell you that the Flames shouldn’t miss a beat without TJ Brodie, Dougie
Hamilton, Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau and Michael Frolik for a third of a
season how much patience would you have?

Let’s have a look at the player performance predictions and
where they ended up.

Oilers Final Player Performance-Flames RE series - Excel

I’ve highlighted those players whose ppg results were off
the predicted mark by a margin greater than 0.1.

Leon Draisaitl blew away my expectations of him this season
with a hot start. He settled as the season drew on with some speculation that
there was a rib issue hindering his playmaking and skating ability, but seemed
to find some middle ground later in the season. His future will likely be as a
swing man moving from wing to center as needs dictate.

Eberle had a down year along with Nugent-Hopkins, not surprisingly both lost time to injury, Nugent-Hopkins’ being the more serious (broken finger and later
a minor concussion) but both maintained a point-per-game rate above 0.60.

Taylor Hall registered his first full 82-game season of his career and while his point totals leveled off in the second half of the season
he was a force for the entire year, disproving many of his critics who said that he lacked
a 200-foot game.

Nail Yakupov may have played his last game as an Oiler. This
summer his name may be amongst the many that are headed out of town. I will
miss him on this team.

I underestimated Connor McDavid. As a 19 year old rookie in
a half-season shortened due to injury he kept pace with Patrick Kane on a
point-per-game basis while facing the best defensive competition opposing teams
had to offer on a team torpedoed by injuries and with a defense cobbled together with prayer and bailing twine. Words fail me. The Oilers are going to invest a king’s ransom in
making sure he remains healthy.

A Look At the Numbers

Below are various statistical categories that I tracked
through the season. Overall the Oilers kept an even keel, despite the injuries.

Oilers Final Goal Differential -RE Differentials - Excel

Oilers Final ScAdjFF -RE Differentials - Excel

Oilers Final Team SvPerc-RE Differentials - Excel

Oilers Final Talbot Sv Perc -RE Differentials - Excel

Oilers Final Nilsson Sv Perc -RE Differentials - Excel

The goal differential improved over the course of the
season, however the loss of Nugent-Hopkins and Klefbom are probably the two
biggest factors at play here.

The possession game for this team will need to improve, the two areas that would provide the greatest return in that area would be to add two top-four defensemen and to have a roster that can remain healthy.

The team save percentage started poorly and that more or
less nailed the lid on the team early with the injuries coming in afterwards to
throw dirt on the coffin.

Talbot emerged this year as a starting goaltender who should
be relied upon to deliver league average goaltending at the very least. At this
stage that is all a team can ask for.

Outside of Nilsson’s stretch from mid-November to early December things did not go especially well for him. I expect the Oilers will be aggressive in pursuing a replacement backup goaltender this summer. Chiarelli is fed up with wet feet and bailing and he will be patching holes in this boat without delay.

Hero of the Season

From a fan perspective, this could be difficult. Many fans would choose Brandon Davidson as a candidate because a team so starved for defenseman managed to draft and develop one of their own (it doesn’t happen often in Oilerville, and when it does they usually get traded right when they become capable players). His backstory (skipped some years playing because his family couldn’t afford it, walk on tryout for the Pats who became eventually became captain of the team, 6th round draft pick who made it to the AHL and then battled testicular cancer to eventually come into the NHL and earn a top-four spot) is an inspiration.

I suspect Peter Chiarelli would pick Cam Talbot as his hero for the season after spending some dear draft picks to acquire him and then overcoming a difficult start to the season, Talbot’s emergence as a capable starting goaltender strikes a massive item off the GM’s to-do list for this summer and gives the team something it hasn’t had since perhaps the departure of Dwayne Roloson.

Others would argue Connor McDavid who provided a compelling reason to watch every game he played, regardless of where the team was in the standings.

Off Season Plan

Defense? Defense. Definitely defense.

The Oilers are buying on the blueline this summer. The only thing we don’t know yet is the cost. All sorts of names have been thrown around but what we do know is that the blueline begins with Andrei Sekera, Brandon Davidson, and Oscar Klefbom. Nurse and Reinhart are the nearly-ready prospects and Mark Fayne is the old man who can’t get no love. They need at least one, ideally two right-handed defensemen for next season.

Some additional cleaning up of the bottom six is needed but not necessarily a priority.

I won’t speculate here on who they target or who is on the block, but suffice to say that many believe Peter Chiarelli could be one of the busier GMs this summer.

Why This Song?

You can run on for a long time
Run on for a long time
Run on for a long time
Sooner or later God’ll cut you down
Sooner or later God’ll cut you down

Go tell that long tongue liar
Go and tell that midnight rider
Tell the rambler, the gambler, the back biter
Tell ’em that God’s gonna cut ’em down
Tell ’em that God’s gonna cut ’em down

At the beginning of the season I’d picked Johnny Cash as the musical herald for the Oilers (Canucks got Tom Petty, Flames got Elvis Presley).

In this video Rick Rubin discusses Cash wearing black to show common cause with the disenfranchised and downtrodden.

There could be no better association for Oilers fans and their team today.

As I mentioned at the beginning, the Oilers have become a joke that people long ago stopped finding funny.

Instead it seems some people are finding sport in dropping by to punish fans or castigate them for their loyalties, laying at their feet the blame for the organization’s long season of discontent.

The media no longer have any time for Oilers’ stories aside from venting anger and resentment at the prospect of another 1st overall draft pick going to Edmonton. Indeed, it appears that it has become en vogue to argue that the team needs to be punished in some way for it’s sins, real or perceived.

Oiler fans are being targeted by those outside the market and the team has once again found itself, justifiably or not, at the center of everyone’s hit list.

And yet every other Canadian team has found itself outside the playoffs this year. The bottom ten teams in the league include six of the seven Canadian teams, the bottom five positions have four Canadian teams, and the bottom three positions are occupied solely by Canadian teams.

Of course the response to that is “this is just one year” or “we’re going to do this rebuild better and smarter than the Oilers” and it would be hard to argue that it could be done any less well up to this point.

But the popular idea now that the Oilers need to be punished, and let’s
be perfectly honest this isn’t punishing the team so much as punishing
the fans, is superficial and facile.

It is kicking a team and a fan base when they are down and it looks more like spite and vindictiveness than anything resembling the best interests of the game.

So you can run on for a long time, getting by myriad ways, and it is the nature of sports fans to boast when their team is up. But sooner or later you’ll be brought down. So best be careful how you go when things are up, because how you carry yourself in the good times says as much about what kind of person you are as what you do when the days get dark. 

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  • Scarface

    Rex, I can’t handle your slant. Your knowledge of the other Canadian teams you review is below an acceptable level. You base it on a few numbers then put it out as the gospel. Certainly you’re not actually watching these teams play. Your undying love for the Oilers is equally poor journalism. Every team faces injuries, key ones at that. What injuries do often exploit is the lack of team and organizational depth, and highlight the reliance on certain individuals. You claim Oiler fans don’t deserve the backlash they are facing now. What you fail to acknowledge is that they make the bed they sleep in. Their off seasons are full of celebrating #1 overall picks and boasting top 6 forwards. To speak generally about that fanbase as a whole, humility and modesty are not part of their repertoire.

    • fran huckzky

      Your post is the first time I have ever heard of a fan web site described as JOURNALISM. If I want journalism I will read the Wall Street Journal and not Oilers Nation.

    • Atta boy, lump all Oilers fans in to the same boat. Who is the one with the slant here?

      Sounds like you have been sucked in by the Oilers fans who actually post unrealistic expectations on blog sites, and the even smaller number of fans who are “celebrating #1 overall picks and boasting top 6 forwards”.

      Thank you for speaking “generally”…

    • RexLibris

      No worries.

      Thanks for reading the article(s). I’m curious though what you feel an acceptable level of knowledge is though.

      For instance, I’m currently doing an officiating review (more on that later) and last night re-watched the final EDM/VAN game where Craig Simpson mentioned that Brossoit was drafted in the 5th round (it was the 6th) and that Nugent-Hopkins’ career with the Oilers is still young (it’s been 5 years).

      There are countless other examples of people paid to comment on hockey and watch games to an extent few fans could match but who routinely get the relatively mundane details wrong.

      With regards to watching the teams play, I don’t watch every game. I can’t. But I watch almost as many Flames games as I do Oilers games, maybe 65% of the season, and fewer Canucks games due to broadcast restrictions and the like.

      I try to make up for that by digging into player performances going back three years to determine a general trend and then rate that against scouting reports and team deployment strategies and habits to determine where they might go.

      It is by no means perfect, but I’ve certainly looked into the teams I choose to write about to an at least modest if not in-depth extent.

      Now the one thing I will take issue with here is when you say the fans made their bed. No, they didn’t. They cheered on their team and celebrated a 1st overall pick (four times, unfortunately, but there you have it). Fans get excited about prospects and the draft, regardless of their loyalties because on that day you get to add another name, another person to your tribe. And we love them because they are one of us now, fans dream about what the future might hold for them.

      Picking a player 1st overall is only going to heighten that excitement.

      Further to your point, fans don’t make trades, they don’t hire or fire coaches. They don’t make decisions on ice time or defensive schemes, and they don’t inform the team at the draft table.

      The argument is often put forward that if a team does poorly then fans should boycott them until they do well. I think this fundamentally misstates the relationship between a fan and a franchise. The loyalty shown to the Oilers by their fans is, at times, undeserved. And far from the fans being a blind rubberstamp to everything the team has done wrong these past ten years, some of the most insightful and excoriating criticism of the team and franchise has come from people who would identify readily and without pause as being fans of the Oilers.

      So perhaps we are both speaking about the fan base generally and as a whole, but I prefer to give a fan community, any fan community, the benefit of the doubt.

      • DoubleDIon

        I don’t agree with the people who take pot shots at the bloggers here. You usually do a good job Rex even if you do cheer for the most hapless organization in pro sports.

        I disagree with a couple of your points, but in general your opinions have some thought and reasons behind them which is all I ask of people I discuss hockey with.

        I think you missed a big part of the problem in Edmonton in your post though, it can’t be quantified or charted. There is little/no accountability in the locker room outside of McLellan. I get trying to fit players into the age group of your core, but there’s something to be said for acquiring a professional who might be in the 27-31 year old window and is actually a top end NHLer. You’ve tried it with bottom pairing defensemen and 4th line forwards but haven’t with a top end player.

        If I’m PC I’m acquiring 2 defensemen this summer. One who fits into my core age group and another who can lead these blind boys and help them become pros while playing on my top pairing.

        I also disagree with you on Eberle. I’d ship his behind out of town even if all I got in return was cap relief. Him and Yakupov are two guys I’d get rid of for sure for different reasons. Yakupov is trying, but can’t figure it out. He cares but has no on ice brain. Eberle is the opposite. He knows what he should do and steadfastly refuses to do it. Can’t have a guy like that being a leader on your team.

        • Jarome Iginla is to old for the 27-31 years old window but it would be interesting if he finished his playing career with his birthplace team Edmonton Oilers as a player-coach to bring in the kind of locker room atmosphere you think is lacking.

          • DoubleDIon

            Jarome probably isn’t good enough at this stage. I’d be looking for a guy who can play 23-25 minutes on the blueline.

            Iginla has been similar to many of the Oilers stars the past 7 years or so. All offense with no consideration to the benefit to the team that being a 200 foot player brings.

            Ideally you want that player to solve a team need while providing leadership. Iginla gives you another one dimensional shooter. He’s an old version of Eberle.

          • DoubleDIon

            Yup. Iginla hasn’t played defense in almost a decade. He was a solid 200 foot player until 28 or 29 but hasn’t been in a long time. He was a physical player until 32 or 33 but hasn’t been in a long time.

            The “do you actually watch hockey” question is a stupid one. If anyone cares enough to post here then they watch hockey. Look at the data on Iginla, they tell the same story I’m telling you now and I saw every game he ever played with the Flames and a lot of them since.

            Iginla had 70 hits this year in the second most generous hit stat rink in the league behind LA. 2001 Iginla would have double or triple that number.

        • RexLibris

          …even if you do cheer for the most hapless organization in pro sports.

          I’m not a Cubs fan. 🙂

          True though, the last ten years have been…trying.

          Good points, thank you.

          My take on the injuries is that STL went to war with four top-four defensemen, found a fifth in Parayko, and had an established coaching system and roster. (Check for information on defensive depth for teams, STL looks really good here)

          MGL used to post regular charts that showed not only games missed by the possession impact of those players and EDM had by far the largest loss until the very end of the season when NJD began to creep up.

          If you’re going into a gunfight with a pcoket knife and you get there to realize you accidentally picked up the bottle opener by mistake on your way out the door, things aren’t going to end well for you.

          With regards to Eberle and Yakupov, I think one or both are likely gone this summer if Chiarelli can’t solve the right-handed defenceman issue any other way.

          Sometimes fans are too close to the players to “see” attitude problems or the like, so I try to take these things in context and keep an eye out for evidence in the future.

          Jason Demers is the FA target, but they need two and then you are looking at Hamonic or Vatanen. Either one will cost you a winger, the former likely being the more costly to acquire.

          Thanks for reading.

  • The GREAT Walter White

    All you need to know:

    Oilers finishes second last in the league again…

    Oilers set the record for the lowest win % over a decade of any team in the history of the NHL…

    Oilers tied the record for consecutive years out of the playoffs…

    Oilers won just 17 of the 45 games McDavid played….

    The rest is just filler.


    • Danoilerfanincalgary

      I’m not really sure why you are so concerned with the Oilers you have enough issues with your own team. Thanks for your input though as short sighted as it may be. Some people just take pleasure in others difficult situations tough way to go through life. Hope everything is ok in your life though WW. if kicking others while they are down makes you feel better then I feel bad for you.

      • DoubleDIon

        You poor victim. Did someone say your team isn’t very good? You should reply with a sanctimonious message on the internet and tell them they’re just upset about their real life…. Oh Wait….

        • JimmyV1965

          People are weird. I go on the sites of other teams all the time and never would I ever started posting crap about how bad they are and how craply their fans are. I wonder what’s wrong with a person like this? I don’t get it. Who does this kinda thing?

      • Cfan in Vic

        “I’m not really sure why you are so concerned with the Oilers you have enough issues with your own team.”

        It’s an article summarizing the Oiler’s season. As one-sided as it is, the WW post was completely relevant. Are you surprised about this type of response, given that this is a cross-nation post (read onFlamesnation)?

    • CaptainLander

      All you need to know

      In the last decade Stanley Cup winning teams do not include

      1, Edmonton Oilers
      2, Calgary Flames
      3, Vancouver Canucks
      4, Every Other Canadian teams.

      The rest is just filler.


  • Crazy Flames

    Why would Chiarelli deny being in on the Jones trade. RNH for Jones would’ve been a steal for for the Oilers. I think RNH is a pretty good player but certainly no Johansen.

    Denying that you were trying to make a deal for Jones makes you look like an incompetent GM. Oilers need help on the back end. Oilers have an entire team of first round draft picks and still are no good. Vis a vis trade one of these players for a good young dman. Certainly wouldn’t have made them any worse….

    Or maybe it was like the Hamilton situation where no teams want to deal with the Oilers just because they are the Oilers and get plenty of help from the lottery anyways.