57Derek Ryan
Photo Credit: James Guillory/USA Today Sports

The 2019 Playoff Chase: Going streaking (but the bad kind)

The Calgary Flames have lost four games in a row. Shockingly, it hasn’t really dented their playoff chances substantially.

Chasing a playoff spot

Team Pts W ROW Pct. Chances
FLAMES 89 41 41 .654 100%
Sharks 88 40 40 .657 100%
Predators 83 39 35 .601 99.7%
Jets 82 39 37 .621 99.9%
Golden Knights 79 37 34 .581 97.5%
Blues 78 36 35 .582 97.9%
Stars 75 35 35 .560 87.5%
Wild 74 33 32 .544 54.0%
Coyotes 71 33 29 .530 34.0%

(Playoff spot odds throughout these tables via Sports Club Stats.)

The Flames are somehow still in top spot in the West, but only because San Jose hasn’t used up their games in hand yet. They’re still 18 points up on ninth place Arizona and a virtual lock for the playoffs, which goes to show you how valuable their red-hot first 55 games was to their playoff hopes.

Heading into the weekend, their magic number to clinch a playoff spot is any combination of 6.5 Flames wins or Coyotes losses. The playoff cut-line in the West, per the Athletic, is around 88 points.

Chasing home ice in the first round

Team Pts W ROW Pct. Chances
FLAMES 89 41 41 .654 100%
Sharks 88 40 40 .657 99%
Golden Knights 79 37 34 .581 1%
Coyotes 71 33 29 .530 0%

This is equally sewn-up. The Flames are 10 points up on Vegas. They and the Sharks are virtual locks for home ice in the first round, though it’s up in the air who finishes where between the two of them. Third place in the Pacific projects to around 97 points.

Chasing a divisional title

Team Pts W ROW Pct. Chances
FLAMES 89 41 41 .654 63%
Sharks 88 40 40 .657 37%
Golden Knights 79 37 34 .581 0%
Coyotes 71 33 29 .530 0%

The Sharks have a game in hand on the Flames, so they’re likely to pass them. That said, it’s a two-horse race right now and it’s unlikely that Vegas will make much of a push. Second place in the Pacific projects to around 106 points, so there’s still a ways to go before anyone clinches this race.

Chasing top spot in the West

Team Pts W ROW Pct. Chances
FLAMES 89 41 41 .654 61%
Sharks 88 40 40 .657 36%
Predators 83 39 35 .601 0%
Jets 82 39 37 .621 3%

As with the other races, it’s Calgary and San Jose duking it out. As noted before, it’ll take around 106 points to win this race.