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What will it cost to get the Kraken to avoid Mark Giordano?

The Calgary Flames have some decisions to make regarding the upcoming Seattle Kraken expansion draft. One of their bigger decisions is which three defensemen to protect among the quartet of Mark Giordano, Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson.

But conventional wisdom says the Flames should expose Giordano, given that he’s nearly 38 years old. But with Flames management likely nervous about losing their captain, what price would they potential need to pay to steer the Kraken away from Giordano?

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We chatted with the folks at the Sin Bin, who covered Vegas’ expansion draft in 2017, to figure out what the price tag might be to steer Seattle away from Giordano and towards another available player. Let’s take a look at the past to figure out the near future!

The 2017 price tags

Anaheim

  • Vegas wanted: one of Anaheim’s young defenders, likely Korbinian Holzer, Josh Manson or Sami Vatanen
  • Vegas settled for: Clayton Stoner
  • Vegas’ reward: Shea Theodore

Kevin Bieksa had a no-move clause in his deal but declined to waive it, so the Ducks had a challenge in keeping their defensive group together. So they offered up Theodore, Vegas also claimed Stoner, and they kept their blueliner group together.

Buffalo

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  • Vegas wanted: they had a few different options
  • Vegas settled for: William Carrier
  • Vegas’ reward: sixth round pick in 2017

The Sabres had a few interesting, yet flawed, options exposed: Brian Gionta, Matt Moulson, Cody Franson, Linus Ullmark and Anders Nilsson. A sixth rounder was what it took to steer Vegas towards Carrier.

Carolina

  • Vegas wanted: they had a few different options
  • Vegas settled for: Connor Brickley
  • Vegas’ reward: fifth round pick in 2017

The Hurricanes were in a similar spot as Buffalo, with folks like Cam Ward, Eddie Lack, Klas Dahlbeck, Joakim Nordstrom and Erik Karlsson (the depth forward) up for grabs. Like Buffalo, a late pick was enough to steer them towards Brickley.

Columbus

  • Vegas wanted: Joonas Korpisalo or Josh Anderson
  • Vegas settled for: William Karlsson
  • Vegas’ reward: first round pick in 2017, second round pick in 2019 and David Clarkson

This was really two trades in one: one pick to Vegas for avoiding Korpisalo and Anderson (and taking Karlsson instead), and the other for eating Clarkson’s ugly contract.

Florida

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  • Vegas wanted: they had a few different options
  • Vegas settled for: Jonathan Marchessault
  • Vegas’ reward: Reilly Smith (Florida received a fourth round pick in 2018)

Vegas had some decent options – Jason Demers, Colton Sceviour, Jakub Kindl among them – but the Panthers reportedly didn’t love Smith’s contract and the fourth rounder was a subsidized price for the Golden Knights taking his deal off their hands (and taking Marchessault).

Minnesota

  • Vegas wanted: Matt Dumba
  • Vegas settled for: Erik Haula
  • Vegas’ reward: Alex Tuch (Minnesota received a third round pick in 2017)

This is arguably the most clear-cut. In exchange for Dumba staying with the Wild, Vegas got a pair of decent players (and gave up a third round pick).

NY Islanders

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  • Vegas wanted: probably one of the Islanders’ defensemen
  • Vegas settled for: Jean-Francois Berube
  • Vegas’ reward: first round pick in 2017, second round pick in 2019, Mikhail Grabovski and Jake Bischoff

The Islanders had a bunch of nice pieces available: Jaroslav Halak, Calvin de Haan, Thomas Hickey, Scott Mayfield, Josh Bailey and Brock Nelson – Vegas was likely eying de Haan, Hickey or Mayfield. So in exchange for avoiding, well, everybody that was really good, it cost a pick and Jake Bischoff. The other pick went to Vegas in exchange for eating Grabovski’s contract.

Pittsburgh

  • Vegas wanted: one of Pittsburgh’s goalies
  • Vegas settled for: Marc-Andre Fleury
  • Vegas’ reward: second round pick in 2020

Pittsburgh basically had to decide whether they’d like to lose Matt Murray or Fleury. Since Vegas zoned in on Fleury early in the process, they convinced the Penguins to hold onto Fleury until the expansion draft.

Tampa Bay

  • Vegas wanted: they had a few different options
  • Vegas settled for: Jason Garrison
  • Vegas’ reward: a second round pick in 2017, a fourth round pick in 2018 and Nikita Gusev

Rather than lose someone like Cedric Paquette, J.T. Brown or Yanni Gourde, the Lightning kept those players and convinced Vegas to take on Garrison’s hefty contract.

Winnipeg

  • Vegas wanted: likely Marko Dano
  • Vegas settled for: Chris Thorburn
  • Vegas’ reward: a 2019 third round pick and moving up 11 spots by swapping first round picks (Winnipeg’s pick for Columbus’ pick, previously acquired)

Dano was arguably one of the most promising players available in the draft. But Winnipeg managed to negotiate a nice first round swap and a mid-round pick in exchange for Vegas taking Thorburn instead.

The likely price

Giordano will be 38 when the 2021-22 season begins, but there are reasons why Seattle GM Ron Francis would (a) want Giordano on his team or (b) want to convince Brad Treliving that he wants Giordano. Giordano’s a former Norris winner, he’s in crazy-good shape for his age, and he can probably still play a ton in every game situation for the remaining year of his contract.

If we presuppose that Francis can convince Treliving that he’d take Giordano if he was left exposed, the 2017 trades suggest that the likely price to steer Seattle away from Calgary’s captain would be a second or third round pick. The Flames have extra second and third round picks available in the 2022 NHL Draft, by sheer coincidence, but they could be a fairly steep price to pay to keep Giordano and instead of someone like Oliver Kylington, Derek Ryan or (perhaps) Milan Lucic.

Would a second or third round pick be too much to pay to keep Giordano? Or would it depend on what player Seattle took instead of Giordano? Sound off in the comments!