Calgary Flames Prospect Update: a mid-season NHLe progress report

It’s a quiet week for the hockey world, with the majority of the Calgary Flames’ prospects off due to the holidays or COVID-19 protocol stoppages. Either way, we figured it’s a good time to look at each player’s offensive contributions in the context of their NHLe (NHL equivalent) progression.

Let’s dive in!

For the unfamiliar, NHLe is a method of roughly approximating what a player’s production in one league would translate to at the NHL level. It’s an approximation based on large data samples of players who played in those leagues and made the jump (or didn’t) to NHL success. Take them with a grain of salt, as they’re not meant to be predictions, but mere conversions meant to put a player’s current play in a broader context.

F Jack Beck – Ottawa 67’s (OHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	OHL	12	17	37.52
2020-21	OHL	–	–	–
2019-20	OHL	56	19	8.99
2018-19	U16 GTHL	33	36	n/a
—	U16 AAA	73	74	n/a

Beck’s 18 and missed his entire draft year, but he’s made a massive jump in productivity from his Draft-1 year (when he was 16). It’s yet to be seen how he’ll be once he returned from injury, but the start to his season was superb.

D Jake Boltmann – University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish (NCAA)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	NCAA	17	8	12.85
2020-21	NCAA	19	0	0.00
—	USHL	6	0	0.00
2019-20	USHL	17	9	12.16
—	USHS	25	13	n/a
2018-19	USHL	8	1	2.87
—	USHS	44	19	n/a

Boltmann had a pretty rough Draft+1 year offensively in 2020-21, but he’s returned to his pre-draft form. He’s a stay-at-home guy ultimately, but he’s been pretty decent as a sophomore for the Irish.

F Lucas Ciona – Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	WHL	26	13	12.38
2020-21	WHL	23	13	14.00
—	AJHL	2	4	n/a
2019-20	WHL	53	13	6.07
2018-19	WHL	3	0	0.00
—	AJHL	2	1	n/a
—	CSSHL	29	27	n/a

Ciona’s producing this season at more or less the rate he was producing in his Draft year. It’d be nice to see a bit of progression, especially given his size and physical maturity compared to the younger WHL skaters he’s playing against.

RW Matt Coronato – Harvard University Crimson (NCAA)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	NCAA	11	12	25.05
2020-21	USHL	51	85	38.27
2019-20	USHL	45	40	20.41
2018-19	USHS	30	32	n/a
—	BEAST U16	8	8	n/a

Coronato’s production is down a bit, relatively-speaking, from his superb USHL draft year. That said, it’s natural for production to dip slightly when going into a higher level and he’s still producing at a high level. It’ll be interesting to see what the second half of this season and his entire sophomore year look like from an offensive standpoint.

RW Walker Duehr – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	15	6	15.94
2020-21	AHL	5	0	0.00
—	NCAA	28	17	20.91
2019-20	NCAA	32	15	16.14
2018-19	NCAA	34	16	16.21

Duehr’s not destined to be a pro hockey star, but he’s really consistent when you look back at his production over this four year period.

LW Lucas Feuk – Vasby IK HK (HockeyEttan)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	HockeyAllsvenskan	10	2	6.51
—	HockeyEttan	11	8	n/a
2020-21	HockeyAllsvenskan	14	1	2.33
—	HockeyEttan	18	18	n/a
—	J20 Nationell	8	10	19.78
2019-20	HockeyAllsvenskan	29	2	2.25
—	J20 SuperElit	23	27	18.58
2018-19	HockeyAllsvenskan	5	0	0.00
—	J20 SuperElit	43	43	15.83
—	J18 Elite	5	8	n/a

Feuk has been a decent Swedish junior player and a wholly unremarkable Swedish pro.

C/RW Ryan Francis – Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	QMJHL	18	23	29.76
—	AHL	4	0	0.00
2020-21	QMJHL	36	50	36.39
2019-20	QMJHL	61	72	27.49
2018-19	QMJHL	64	32	11.64

Francis has shown really steady progression as a junior player. He’s rapidly catching up offensively this season after it was delayed a bit by a brief AHL stint.

RW/C Glenn Gawdin – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	21	24	45.55
2020-21	AHL	22	13	23.55
—	SL	1	0	n/a
2019-20	AHL	53	47	35.34
2018-19	AHL	64	38	23.66

Gawdin’s one of the older prospects in the system, and he’s destined to become a Group 6 free agent and leave the organization this summer. But he’s been a really consistently strong AHLer, with only a minor blip in the pandemic season where he bounced around the system a bit.

LW Emil Heineman – Leksands IF (SHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	SHL	29	12	20.22
2020-21	SHL	43	13	14.78
—	J20 Nationell	1	0	0.00
2019-20	SHL	11	2	8.89
—	J20 SuperElit	29	41	22.37
2018-19	J20 SuperElit	27	5	2.93
—	J18	6	6	n/a

He’s a role player in the SHL right now, but Heineman has shown really nice progression from his rookie SHL season.

C Cole Huckins – Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	QMJHL	24	22	21.35
2020-21	QMJHL	33	32	22.58
2019-20	QMJHL	64	38	13.83
2018-19	MPHL	18	27	n/a

It would’ve been nice to see Huckins take a bigger offensive step in his Draft+1 year, but he’s one of the more consistent players in the Flames system right now.

D Cole Jordan – Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	WHL	7	2	7.08
2020-21	WHL	23	10	10.77
2019-20	WHL	38	7	4.56
2018-19	MMHL	48	44	n/a
—	MJHL	2	0	n/a

Scouts love Jordan because of his smarts and skating, but his offensive output has yet to really explode. Here’s hoping the second half of his WHL season sees him stay healthy and live up to the potential that many believe that he has.

LW/C Rory Kerins – Soo Greyhounds (OHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	OHL	26	44	44.82
2020-21	AHL	4	0	0.00
2019-20	OHL	64	59	24.42
2018-19	OHL	57	23	10.69

It’s hard not to be impressed with Kerins’ offensive step forward in his Draft+2 season after playing just four games in his Draft+1 year.

D Johannes Kinnvall – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	–	–	–
2020-21	SHL	32	22	33.60
2019-20	SHL	51	40	38.33
2018-19	SHL	52	22	20.68

Kinnvall is nearing a return from a gnarly pre-season injury. Hopefully he can produce anywhere close to what his last few seasons suggests he has in him.

LW Justin Kirkland – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	22	8	14.49
2020-21	AHL	16	7	17.44
2019-20	AHL	53	28	21.05
2018-19	AHL	75	30	15.94

Kirkland is reliable depth in the AHL. But given his age and his (lack of) offensive progression, he’s probably topped out. He’s set to become a Group 6 free agent this summer.

RW Demetrios Koumontzis – Arizona State University Sun Devils (NCAA)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	NCAA	20	9	12.29
2020-21	NCAA	22	10	12.41
2019-20	NCAA	25	8	8.74
2018-19	NCAA	35	20	15.60

Koumontzis hasn’t been a huge needle-mover offensively in college, with his NHLe peaking in his freshman year.

D Yan Kuznetsov – Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	QMJHL	4	3	19.86
—	AHL	12	0	0.00
2020-21	AHL	6	0	0.00
—	NCAA	16	6	12.08
2019-20	NCAA	34	11	10.43
2018-19	USHL	34	4	2.70

It’s probably not fair to draw any conclusions from four QMJHL games, but hopefully they can continue some nice offensive progression for Kuznetsov since his Draft-1 season.

D Connor Mackey – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	23	14	24.26
2020-21	AHL	27	16	23.62
2019-20	NCAA	36	24	22.96
2018-19	NCAA	42	25	20.50

Mackey has been, production-wise, just as good in the AHL as he was in college. It’s actually pretty remarkable how consistent he’s been given he’s jumped right into pro hockey during a pandemic.

C Mitchell Mattson – Michigan State University Spartans (NCAA)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	NCAA	10	2	5.46
2020-21	NCAA	21	4	5.20
2019-20	NCAA	22	1	1.24
2018-19	NCAA	14	0	0.00

Seven points over four seasons of college hockey.

C Ilya Nikolaev – Tri-City Storm (USHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	USHL	21	19	20.77
2020-21	VHL	37	13	n/a
—	MHL	21	18	n/a
2019-20	MHL	53	32	n/a
—	NMHL	2	1	n/a
2018-19	MHL	41	25	n/a
—	NMHL	3	2	n/a

It’s hard to put your finger on Nikolaev because he’s played in one league over the past four years that has produced enough NHL players to have an actual NHLe. But he’s been pretty good for Tri-City.

C Josh Nodler – Michigan State University Spartans (NCAA)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	NCAA	18	11	16.69
2020-21	NCAA	27	11	11.12
2019-20	NCAA	36	8	6.07
2018-19	USHL	54	42	17.86

Nodler has made some nice progress in college, though his offensive production is still somewhat modest relative to other college players.

LW Jakob Pelletier – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	23	27	46.78
2020-21	QMJHL	28	43	35.76
2019-20	QMJHL	57	82	33.50
2018-19	QMJHL	65	89	31.89

We’ve said this a lot, but it’s hard not to be impressed with Pelletier. Usually you see a production dip when a player, even a really good one, jumps from junior to the pros. But Pelletier has gotten significantly better.

LW Emilio Pettersen – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	20	6	11.96
2020-21	AHL	29	14	19.24
2019-20	NCAA	36	35	33.48
2018-19	NCAA	40	30	25.83

Pettersen had the “going pro dip” last season, and his numbers have eroded a bit more this season.

RW Matthew Phillips – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	20	21	41.84
2020-21	AHL	30	21	27.90
2019-20	AHL	38	33	34.61
2018-19	AHL	65	38	23.30

Phillips is a very good AHL player. If the worst thing you can say about him is “Well, his production dipped during the pandemic…” you know he’s been productive.

C Luke Philp – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	23	14	24.26
2020-21	AHL	30	17	22.58
2019-20	AHL	52	31	23.76
2018-19	USports	24	45	n/a

Philp is basically the forward version of Connor Mackey, in that his production is consistent over the past few seasons.

D Jérémie Poirier – Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	QMJHL	30	32	24.84
2020-21	QMJHL	33	37	26.11
2019-20	QMJHL	64	53	19.29
2018-19	QMJHL	61	21	8.02

Poirier has remained a consistently productive offensive defender over the past few seasons, though one would hope for a bit more progression since being drafted.

D Colton Poolman – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	20	4	7.97
2020-21	AHL	21	6	11.39
2019-20	NCAA	31	17	19.74
2018-19	NCAA	35	17	17.48

Poolman has developed into a wholly unremarkable (from an offensive standpoint) defender.

RW Martin Pospisil – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	15	10	26.57
2020-21	AHL	14	11	31.31
—	Slovakia	22	17	n/a
2019-20	AHL	26	10	15.33
2018-19	USHL	44	63	32.87

If only he could stay healthy. After his initial “going pro dip,” Pospisil has shown some steady offensive progression.

C Adam Ruzicka – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	13	16	49.05
2020-21	AHL	28	21	29.89
2019-20	AHL	54	27	19.93
2018-19	OHL	65	78	31.78

Ruzicka had his “going pro dip,” followed by three seasons of pretty nice progression. He’s in the NHL now, albeit on a recall.

D Ilya Solovyov – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	15	4	10.63
2020-21	KHL	41	9	14.47
—	Belarus	1	1	n/a
2019-20	OHL	53	40	19.99
2018-19	Belarus	53	8	n/a

On one hand, Solovyov has taken small steps backward offensively over the past few seasons. On the other hand, he’s moved into progressively tough leagues in that span so that step backward makes a lot of sense.

LW William Strömgren – Rögle BK (J20 Nationell)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	J20 Nationell	29	23	12.55
—	SHL	1	0	0.00
2020-21	J20 Nationell	14	18	20.35
—	HockeyAllsvenskan	27	9	10.85
—	HockeyEttan	11	12	n/a
—	J18	1	3	n/a
2019-20	J20 SuperElit	10	7	11.08
—	J18	31	46	n/a
2018-19	J18	2	3	n/a
—	J16	30	45	n/a

Strömgren has bounced around a lot over the past few seasons and his offensive production seems to have taken a step back this season.

RW Eetu Tuulola – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	18	8	17.71
2020-21	AHL	29	7	9.62
—	HockeyAllsvenskan	11	4	11.84
—	Liiga	4	0	0.00
2019-20	AHL	50	23	18.33
2018-19	Liiga	60	36	22.24

Tuulola is offensively about where he was two seasons ago.

D Cameron Whynot – Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	QMJHL	28	15	12.48
2020-21	QMJHL	34	23	15.75
2019-20	QMJHL	57	9	3.68
2018-19	NSMMHL	35	40	n/a

Whynot is about where he was offensively last season.

C Connor Zary – Stockton Heat (AHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	AHL	15	8	21.25
2020-21	AHL	9	7	31.00
—	WHL	15	24	39.62
2019-20	WHL	57	86	37.36
2018-19	WHL	63	67	26.34

Zary’s catching up offensively after a slow, injury-delayed start to the AHL season. He showed really steady progress over the prior three seasons.

RW Dmitry Zavgorodniy – HC Sochi (KHL)

Season	League	GP	Pts	NHLe
2021-22	KHL	5	2	26.37
—	AHL	6	0	0.00
2020-21	KHL	6	3	32.96
—	AHL	29	4	5.50
2019-20	QMJHL	40	67	39.01
2018-19	QMJHL	67	64	22.25

Zavgorodniy has a small KHL sample, so it’s hard to judge yet. He’s a so-so AHLer, but was a great junior player.

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