2014-15 REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS: MIKAEL BACKLUND

Mikael Backlund is an interesting case. Up until the 2013-14 season, he was regarded by many as a disappointment who hadn’t lived up to expectations. To a small community of underlying-number enthusiasts, like the folks at FlamesNation, Backlund has always been an excellent possession player.

 

Backs has never scored very much in his career to date (this is partially because he hasn’t been given much of a sustained opportunity to do so) but, on abysmal Calgary Flames teams, he’s been one of the only positive Corsi players.  

In 2013-14, Backlund emerged offensively as well.

The 2013-14 season for Backlund can be split into two distinct parts – the good and the bad. 

Earlier in the year, for reasons unknown, Backlund was treated…ambivalently by the coaching staff. He was routinely in the coach’s doghouse, often playing limited 3rd/4th line minutes (keeping those lines afloat single-handily mind you) and was even scratched all together on a few occasions. He saw very, very little power-play time as well.

Around December, something clicked for Backlund and the bench bosses. His average ice-time shot up by 30% and he was frequently used as the first line center. He became one of few forwards the Flames would deploy in any situation without hesitation. 

Also, for the first time in his career, he received ample playing time with noteworthy NHLers (mostly Cammalleri and Hudler) and first unit power-play time. Simply put, when Backlund played with offensively capable NHL players and some PP time, he scored at an entirely respectable 50-point pace.  

Backlund is in the doghouse no more. Hartley seems to be a real big fan of Backlund these days, even referring to him as one of the best two-way centers in the entire league last year.

Bennett is likely going back to junior. Arnold, Knight, Granlund and Reinhart will battle for the 4th center spot or switch to wing. Stajan will likely be staple on the 3rd line while possibly jumping up from time to time to take pressure off of Monahan. Monahan is a big piece of the Flames future but he will likely still be quite sheltered this year. Thus Backlund manning a 1A or 1B line and doing the heavy lifting is almost a guarantee.

Assuming Backlund mans one of the first two lines, his regular linemates should be a combination of Mason Raymond, Jiri Hudler, Curtis Glencross, Johnny Gaudreau, Joe Colborne and/or Sven Baertschi. Backlund will therefore play the majority of the 2014-15 season with pretty capable talent and I see the offence following a similar pattern to the last 52 games of the 2013-14 season (45-50 points over 82 games). Backlund will also continue to be one of the Flames’ only possession powerhouses. A caveat on these predictions is how much playing time Backlund gets with Gaudreau and the Brodie/Giordano combo.  

Gaudreau has only one NHL game under his belt but his possession numbers were through the roof (I don’t think that’s going to be an anomaly). As well, Gaudreau has a track record of boosting the point totals of players on his line. Perhaps Gaudreau will slot in with Monahan and form a deadly combo that mops up the easy minutes but perhaps he’s paired with Backlund instead to control play and the two could be electric together.

Backlund, Brodie and Giordano have already shown that they form a possession super monster when they’re on the ice together. I have little doubt Gaudreau will add another head to that monster. Backlund playing with those three, coupled with a significant boost in PP time, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Backlund in the 55-60 point range and costing the Flames a fortune to re-sign next summer.