31 Thoughts: Don’t expect a Johnny Gaudreau trade
By Ryan Pike
4 years agoA lot happened in the hockey world on Wednesday, with Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock getting the boot in the middle of a six game losing skid. Well, this week’s edition of 31 Thoughts came out before that news and focused on the Calgary Flames – who have lost five in a row.
Despite the skid, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman doesn’t think a big move is imminent.
Here are three Flames thoughts from 31 Thoughts:
2. I’d be astonished if Calgary traded Johnny Gaudreau at this time. For one thing, the Flames are aware that this historically 12.5 per cent shooter is at 7.8 in 2019–20. There is concern about how he’s playing, as Gaudreau’s confidence and puck wizardry in the offensive zone are missing. A huge part of their offence was Gaudreau getting in close, where Sean Monahan could bury it. That’s missing. But there’s no desire to make a rash move.
I’m going to push back on Friedman a little bit here. First of all: yes, Gaudreau’s shooting percentage is down from his career average. But, if you go to Natural Stat Trick and check out his expected goals you might notice something: he’s scoring about as much as he should given the quality of the chances he’s getting.
Here’s his last five seasons (all situations):
| Season | Expected Goals | Actual Goals |
| 2015-16 | 21.61 | 30 |
| 2016-17 | 17.85 | 18 |
| 2017-18 | 20.76 | 24 |
| 2018-19 | 25.69 | 36 |
| 2019-20 | 5.58 | 5 |
In two of his last five seasons, his actual goals have really out-kicked his expected goals. But many of Gaudreau’s chances have come from the perimeter this season – arguably higher than usual – and so of course he’s basically scoring as much as he should. You can only use your amazing skill to destroy your underlying goal-scoring projections if you get shots from in close.
But also, he’s right. Gaudreau is on an insanely value-laden contract for the Flames and it would be bonkers for Treliving to sell low.
3. I do think, however, that GM Brad Treliving will try to breathe new life into the group. I’m not sure how easy that’s going to be as the Flames are tight to the cap. And he’d be selling low on some useful players. Let’s take Mark Jankowski, for example. He’s really struggling, with zero points in 21 games. He scored 31 goals the last two seasons, seven of them shorthanded. I do think he’s available, but they see his value over the last three seasons while other GMs will say, “Well, we see this year.”They’ve had Michael Frolik available for awhile, and it will be interesting to see how close to their core they are willing to get if their struggles continue. (My guess is not that close until the off-season, with the possible exception of Travis Hamonic, if he does not get extended.) Monahan may not be scoring, which hurts, but they asked for improvements in other areas of his game — such as faceoffs, where’s he’s got a career-high percentage. One interesting possibility: Oliver Kylington, who would like more opportunity. But, again, other teams have indicated the Flames are being careful not to undervalue their own players during tough times.
Much of this corresponds with what our pals at TSN reported earlier this week. And with what we’ve been suggesting in terms of cap moves the Flames need to make. There are also hockey reasons to make some moves:
- Trading Jankowski would open a potential full-time spot up the middle in Calgary for one of Stockton’s productive centers – looking at you, Glenn Gawdin – or allow Elias Lindholm to transition into a more consistent role at that position.
- Trading Frolik would open up a potential full-time spot in Calgary for one of Stockton’s Dillon Dubes.
4. I don’t get the sense Bill Peters is in jeopardy. Calgary made a coaching change when this group petered out on Glen Gulutzan. The organization doesn’t want that to happen again.
Peters was hired in April 2018. That was only 19 months ago. It doesn’t seem likely that a coaching move is coming.
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