Analytics and The Waiting Game for Bob Hartley

We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2014-15 schedule, which means that we’re inching closer and closer to the end of Bob Hartley’s original deal with the Calgary Flames.

Given his success this season, he’s bound to get an extension. Right? I’m still of the mindset that he will get another deal, but I’m wondering what the hold-up is. But I think I’ve figured it out.

The Flames are in the playoff picture, so this seems like the first time in years that the hockey world is really paying attention. And with that attention, comes two common prongs in coverage – Can They Keep It Up, and No They Can’t Cuz Advanced Stats.

We’ve covered both topics here; the unlikelihood of this recent run given Calgary’s advanced stats and the related unlikelihood that it’ll last forever.

Now, Brad Treliving is not a dumb guy. He works extremely hard and has at least a passing working knowledge of advanced stats from his time in Phoenix, where they needed to use every tool at their disposal to survive. He’s very likely aware of the bubble Calgary’s living in. He’s heard and read all the “it can’t last!” stories and the stories about it all being bounces and luck.

And, like us, he’s probably extremely curious about how much of this team’s success has been bounces and how much has been Bob Hartley. He’d probably like to have a good idea before he signs anybody to a contract extension.

Nobody really wants to see the bounces stop and the real Calgary Flames begin to emerge, but I’m figuring that Treliving wants to wait and see what happens in the next third of the season before putting pen to paper with the current coaching staff.