Analyzing the Calgary Flames through the lens of neutral zone data
By J.D. Burke
8 years agoMore often than not, I’ve found that structure limits creativity in hockey. A necessary evil, but not without its cost. The Calgary Flames, for better or worse, aren’t held by these chains.
In fact, one could sum up their approach to the neutral zone in two words: stretch pass. Beyond that, there’s not an awful lot going on with the whiteboard. The Flames use their speed to catch opponents napping and let the chips fall where they may. It’s entertaining hockey, but not without its shortcomings. Bottle up the neutral zone and you’re halfway to stifling the Flames offence.
Finding out which players are driving these results then is of the utmost importance. Unfortunately, the NHL has yet to add neutral zone data to their repertoire. I’ve tried picking up the slack this season, tracking zone entries for all 30 teams. My goal is to hit the 20-game mark. I’ve got 12 for the Flames so far, though, and results to share.
Raw Zone Entry Totals
Just so we’re clear, a controlled entry is one where the puck is either carried or passed into the offensive zone. An uncontrolled entry is one where the puck is dumped in or brought in by way of a fire drill at the blue line. A failed entry accounts for when either of these fail. There’s some level of interpretation involved, but generally speaking it’s as objective a set of metrics you’ll find.
Johnny Gaudreau, good at hockey as he is, leads the Flames in what I’d consider the most important neutral zone stat, controlled entries. Posting 61 controlled zone entries over a 12 game sample is encouraging in its own right. That Gaudreau is towing a 79% controlled entry rate is gaudy. The next highest flame is Sean Monahan, pulling a 75% controlled entry rate.
It can be easy to undersell the impact defenceman have on their team’s ability to transition play looking exclusively at entry totals. The Flames are an exceptional case, though, with every regular defender not named Deryk Engelland or Kris Russell entering the offensive zone with control north of 30% of the time.
Zone Entry Rate Statistics
There’s no better spot to be on this chart than the one currently occupied by Gaudreau. There’s about a five-point gap between Gaudreau and the next highest Flame by controlled zone entries per sixty. Of course, his entries in totality trail the odd Flame, but Gaudreau’s going for quality here.
A player that’s shown extremely well in the Flames games I’ve tracked this season is Josh Jooris. I’ve often considered him the ideal bottom-six forward. Can kill penalties, move the possession needle and play harmless minutes in low leverage situations. Throw transitional play among the feathers in his cap. Jooris is the most active Flames skater at attacking the blue line.
All shot data is used looking at Fenwick events – unblocked shot attempts.
Gaudreau is starting to look human – pedestrian, even. The Flames are generating just 0.35 shots per Gaudreau entry, which is one of the lowest marks on the team. Meanwhile, Markus Granlund, now a member of the Vancouver Canucks, did an excellent job of generating shots. In the near 30 minutes of even strength play that I have Granlund accounted for, the Flames generated 0.75 shots per entry. That number would likely come back to earth over a larger sample, but it’s encouraging for him all the same.
| Shots per Entry | Shots/60 from Entries | Shots/60 from Controlled Entries | |
| Jokipakka | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Russell | 0.4 | 4.9 | 2.9 |
| Giordano | 0.32 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Wideman | 0.15 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Brodie | 0.39 | 4.8 | 1.8 |
| Colborne | 0.32 | 8.0 | 6.2 |
| Backlund | 0.41 | 11.7 | 7.5 |
| Smid | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jooris | 0.5 | 16.0 | 13.1 |
| Bouma | 0.37 | 9.3 | 4.0 |
| Stajan | 0.34 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Jones | 0.33 | 7.7 | 5.8 |
| Raymond | 0.23 | 5.8 | 4.2 |
| Monahan | 0.44 | 8.3 | 6.7 |
| Hudler | 0.21 | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Wotherspoon | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Hamilton | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Engelland | 0.38 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| Nakladal | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Agostino | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bollig | 0.55 | 9.5 | 8.6 |
| Grant | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Granlund | 0.75 | 15.6 | 5.2 |
| Hathaway | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frolik | 0.61 | 13.2 | 9.8 |
| Ferland | 0.44 | 12.6 | 10.2 |
| Bennett | 0.38 | 7.7 | 6.4 |
| Gaudreau | 0.35 | 11.7 | 7.5 |
The Flames lineup has remained relatively consistent all season, so we don’t need to worry too much about results being swayed in either direction by sampling issues.
Usual suspects like Jooris and Gaudreau continue to show well, but we’re starting to see more of their teammates enter the conversation. Michael Frolik, a strong possession player, is generating a high volume of shots, regardless the method of entry – 13.2 shots/60 on controlled entries and 10.2 shots/60.
Neutral Zone Burden Percentage
Neutral zone burden percentage (NZB%) attempts to take the guesswork out of which players are driving play. If a player is accountable for five of 10 on-ice entries, that player was burdened with 50% of the team’s entries with him on the ice.
The impact Lance Bouma and Micheal Ferland have on the bottom-six becomes clear by this metric. When Bouma is on the ice, he accounts for 38% of his team’s entries. Ferland isn’t far behind at 32%. Those are disproportionately high numbers. Finding the odd player or two that could help lift the load of transitioning play might be a task worth embarking upon.
Team Data
Raw Totals
| Successful Entries | Uncontrolled Entries | Controlled Entries | Failed Entries | |
| Calgary Flames | 788 | 398 | 390 | 188 |
Rate Statistics
| Shots per Entry | Shots per Uncontrolled Entry | Shots per Controlled Entry | |
| Calgary Flames | 0.38 | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| Entries per Sixty | Controlled Entries per Sixty | Shots per Sixty from Entries | Shots per Sixty from Controlled Entries | |
| Calgary Flames | 84.7 | 41.9 | 31.9 | 22.7 |
The Flames are entering the zone with control of the puck 49% of the time, which is a lot better than it sounds. The largest cluster of teams is around the 45% mark. Rarely does a team break even.
Calgary’s also entering the zone a gaudy 84.7 times per 60. Again, they’re ahead of the pack, as most teams hover around the 60 mark. That might be indicative of their inability to sustain pressure in the offensive zone more than anything, though, so I’d caution against getting too riled up by it.
On the whole, Bob Hartley is doing a lot of things right in the neutral zone. Ideally, the Flames would be a little less reliant on the stretch pass. They’re doing a good enough job of converting these into offensive forays as their positive showings by most metrics would indicate.
We care about zone entries because understanding how the offensive zone is gained can go a long way towards generating favourable shot totals. The Flames are doing a lot right in this regard. If they can meet their rush offence with more sustained pressure tactics, they could threaten the opposition on a nightly basis.
Games Tracked:
- Calgary vs Vancouver 2/19/16 [5-2 W]
- Calgary at Ottawa 10/28/15 [4-5 SOL]
- Calgary at Vancouver 2/6/16 [4-1 W]
- Calgary at Edmonton 10/31/15 [5-4 W]
- Calgary at Vancouver 10/10/15 [3-2 OTW]
- Calgary vs Detroit 10/23/15 [3-2 OTW]
- Calgary vs Edmonton 10/17/15 [2-5 L]
- Calgary vs New York Rangers 12/12/15 [5-4 OTW]
- Calgary vs Philadelphia 11/5/15 [2-1 OTW]
- Calgary vs Pittsburgh 11/7/15 [5-2 W]
- Calgary vs Vancouver 10/7/15 [1-5 L]
- Calgary vs Washington 10/20/15 [2-6 L]
The Spreadsheet:
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