Considering the Flames’ CF/60, CA/60 10 games in
By Ari Yanover
6 years agoTen games in, and the Flames are a .500 team.
If we look specifically at their offence, we can see that they’re floundering a bit. The Flames have scored 2.40 goals per game this season, which is the fourth least in the NHL – ahead of just the Canadiens, Oilers, and Coyotes. They have allowed 3.00 goals per game, tied for 13th in the league.
Goals are one thing, though, and from watching the Flames these past 10 games, it certainly feels like they’ve earned more than the 24 they’ve scored at times – so let’s shift the conversation to 5v5 CF/60 and CA/60.
For this exercise, I’m using numbers from Corsica. Natural Stat Trick has slightly different ones, but for the most part the rankings roughly match up.
CF/60
The Flames’ 5v5 CF/60 to start the season is 61.6 – seventh in the NHL. That’s a far cry from their goals record, and their shooting percentage will explain just why: they’re shooting at just a 6.52% clip, which is the sixth worst in the league.
This is as hopeful a sign as we can look for. No, the Flames aren’t scoring as much as they should be, but it’s not like they’re not trying. They’re one of the more productive teams when it comes to driving shot attempts at the net. Hopefully they’ll keep that up over the final 72 games of the season, and hopefully those pucks will start going in, as well.
There’s no guarantee, but it would be much more fair to panic if their CF/60 was low, which would suggest they deserve their low offensive totals thus far.
CA/60
The Flames’ CA/60 is totally contrary to their CF/60. It currently sits at 60.27 – the eighth most in the NHL. They’re balancing out at .500 because their save percentage is a comfortable 93.98 – the fifth best in the league.
In other words, it would appear that for all of the misfortune they’re experiencing when it comes to offence, they’re being repaid with their goaltending. Their PDO sits at a comfortable 100.5, suggesting they’re right about where they’re expected to be.
That’s not good enough, though, because this is still a .500 team, and expectations are much higher than that. The hope has to be that they keep up their offensive play and pucks will eventually go in, all the while either praying that their goaltending plays at this level throughout the entire season – unlikely, but it would be nice – or tightening up defensively without sacrificing any of that offence.
It’s possible, but it’s a lot to ask that everything goes right.
Player impacts
I’ve decided to include all 23 skaters who have played for the Flames so far this season. (I was going to establish a cutoff, but that would have eliminated Jankowski and, I mean, he’s kind of a point of interest right now, so nah.) At a glance, you’ll be able to see who’s leading in both CF/60 and CA/60, rather than having to hunt and peck or go back and forth between two different tables.
For a reference point, the top CF player so far this year (minimum 100 5v5 minutes played) has a CF/60 of 89.31, while the lowest is at 36.48. The top CA player has a CA/60 of 40.71, while the worst is at 75.77.
Small sample sizes beware, but not much we can do about that…
| Rank | Player | CF/60 | Player | CA/60 |
| 1 | Jagr | 70.7 | Jankowski | 42.77 |
| 2 | Frolik | 70.18 | Jagr | 51.67 |
| 3 | Tkachuk | 70.18 | Lazar | 54.12 |
| 4 | Giordano | 68.22 | Gaudreau | 54.87 |
| 5 | D. Hamilton | 68.05 | Backlund | 55.02 |
| 6 | Monahan | 66.43 | Tkachuk | 55.11 |
| 7 | Backlund | 66.22 | Stajan | 56.34 |
| 8 | Jankowski | 62.89 | D. Hamilton | 57.15 |
| 9 | Gaudreau | 61.68 | Frolik | 57.16 |
| 10 | Brodie | 61.45 | Giordano | 57.66 |
| 11 | Kulak | 59.13 | Hamonic | 58.01 |
| 12 | Hamonic | 58.73 | Brodie | 59.76 |
| 13 | Stajan | 58.69 | F. Hamilton | 61.02 |
| 14 | Versteeg | 58.43 | Monahan | 61.43 |
| 15 | Ferland | 57.18 | Kulak | 64.68 |
| 16 | Bennett | 57.14 | Bennett | 66.22 |
| 17 | Brouwer | 56.91 | Versteeg | 66.34 |
| 18 | Stone | 56.34 | Brouwer | 66.5 |
| 19 | Hathaway | 52.02 | Bartkowski | 67.03 |
| 20 | Glass | 51.49 | Ferland | 67.37 |
| 21 | Bartkowski | 50.46 | Stone | 67.51 |
| 22 | Lazar | 49.2 | Glass | 77.86 |
| 23 | F. Hamilton | 40.68 | Hathaway | 80.92 |
Player that rank well in both CF/60 and CA/60 are:
- Jaromir Jagr (really, REALLY well, damn; albeit in just five games so far, but hey – we know he’s good, otherwise he wouldn’t be playing at 45)
- The 3M line (Mikael Backlund is stronger defensively, Michael Frolik is stronger offensively, Matthew Tkachuk ranks in between)
- The top defence pairing, for the most part (Dougie Hamilton is a bit better defensively, Mark Giordano just topping him offensively)
- Johnny Gaudreau (this is shaping up to maybe be his best scoring year so far, but that CA/60 is a really pleasant surprise)
- Mark Jankowski (this is where we really caution the small sample size with only two games played, but if anything, this should serve as a hint that he deserves more time to prove he can keep this up)
Players that rank poorly in both include:
- Garnet Hathaway (only one game, but if these numbers can point towards hope for Jankowski, then they can point towards caution for Hathaway)
- Sam Bennett (a shaky start, to be sure)
- Micheal Ferland (the start of this season is the best chance he’s gotten in his career to date; it hasn’t quite worked out so far)
- Troy Brouwer (he’s hovering around with Bennett and Ferland, but is a fair bit older)
- Michael Stone (considering he’s a third pairing defenceman with a $3.5 million cap hit, not ideal)
- Matt Bartkowski (reminder that he was acquired out of the AHL last season for expansion draft purposes)
- Tanner Glass (I mean…)
A couple of players seem to be firmly middling, most notably T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic: ultimately solid, if unspectacular, for a second pairing. Brett Kulak is almost in this group with them, but is just a little weaker defensively.
A slightly stronger offensive performance only just keeps Kris Versteeg out of the more disappointing group, while it looks like Matt Stajan continues to have hidden value with a great defensive performance. Freddie Hamilton is similar, but a worse version: floundering offensively, middle of the pack defensively. Sean Monahan is their opposite: a very strong offensive performance, but a bit weaker on the defensive end of things.
And then there’s whatever the heck is going on with Curtis Lazar, who has bounced all over the lineup, somehow resulting in relatively abhorrent offensive numbers but stellar defensive ones.
The good news is the Flames have more strong performers than weaker ones, and the weaker ones tend to be prone to less ice time or the press box (albeit not always). The top players are pretty much all expected, and give another reason for hope on the horizon when Jagr returns – with the potential wild card of Jankowski pointing towards more positives than negatives, should he get to stay.
It’s only been 10 games. There’s still a lot of season left. But I’d say they look better this year than they did this time last year, so be patient, and let’s see where this goes.
(The more I think about this, the more I’d like to revisit these numbers throughout the season – maybe again in another 10 games’ time.)
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