Dillon Dube’s performance and approach dictates his need to stay with the Flames

Dillon Dube looks like a bona fide NHLer. In 13 games since being recalled from AHL Stockton, Dube has three goals and seven points and, more importantly, looks like he’s taken a significant step from his first NHL stint last season. Keeping Dube in Calgary presents logistical challenges for general manager Brad Treliving, but my understanding is keeping him up is a priority. Dube has earned a longer stint with the Flames, both with what he’s done on the ice and how he’s approached things off it.

From everything I’ve observed, Dube looks to have matured year over year. Physically he looks stronger, his game is more refined, and his attitude off the ice makes you forget he’s just 21 years old. For Dube, things started changing with his off-season, which was different than any other in his career.

“With RVA (head strength and conditioning coach Ryan van Asten) we stepped it up a lot,” Dube told me last week. “That was the hardest summer I’ve had. We were training like crazy. Long days at the gym and when you’re home you’re bagged, you weren’t doing much.

“For me it was a big step and I’ve always thought about going back to Kelowna or something in the summer, it’s a great place to be. But it’s going to be hard to leave RVA and the training here. It’s just too good and I think if I keep staying here and keep working with him it’s going to be just upwards.”

So, with a great off-season under his belt, Dube came to camp with high expectations and a big time spotlight on him. Dube was the story of the 2018 preseason and he had a great rookie year in the American League prior to an injury ending his season.

As such, many were hoping to see Dube make the Flames out of camp for a second straight year. That wasn’t in the cards, thanks mainly to Calgary’s depth at forward, specifically with players fighting for bottom six spots. Dube was sent to Stockton when the Flames set their opening day roster.

“At the start it was hard,” Dube said. “You worked the whole summer every single day, you think about staying in Calgary, you think about playing here. When you get sent down it’s hard and I think every guy goes through that. It was just…see how quick I could turn it around and turn it into a positive.”

That’s exactly what Dube did. In 13 games with a deep Heat team, Dube posted four goals and 13 points as one of the team’s offensive leaders. So, in the midst of franchise record offensive dry spell, the Flames summoned Dube in mid-November to give them a spark. Almost immediately, it looked like the right call.

Put on a line with Derek Ryan and Milan Lucic, Dube has been a solid contributor (more on that below) in all 13 games he’s played. A month into his latest NHL stint, Dube looks like he belongs at the highest level. Always confident in his ability, Dube also believes the NHL is where he needs to be, but he knows he can’t start feeling comfortable after a month of success.

“I think when you look at it, it’s like this is the league you belong in so you gotta do everything you can to stay. You can’t get complacent and I know how hard of a league it is. I know a lot of guys have come in and they’re here for as many games as I’ve been and all of sudden they’re back in the American League. I think you take it as you belong here so you’ll do everything you can to stay here.”

As mentioned, Dube has been a nice fit on a line with Lucic and Ryan since being recalled in November. That line has been Calgary’s most consistent for the duration of Dube’s 13 games and, despite seeing time on a line with Sean Monahan and Mikael Backlund, that trio remains a staple for interim head coach Geoff Ward.

Dube’s work at five-on-five has been solid since joining the Flames, specifically based on his usage. Ward hasn’t been shy to put Dube in defensive situations. In fact, Dube’s offensive zone start ratio is the lowest on the team, which shows you how confident Ward is using him in tough spots.

Thus far, Dube has done a solid, if not spectacular, job outperforming his zone start, which is what you’re looking for with usage like his. What is more impressive, however, is what Dube has done when in the offensive zone. Data courtesy Natural Stat Trick.

Dube’s individual rates jump off the page. He sits first amongst regular forwards (ten games or more) in both goals-per-60 and points-per-60, and third in assists-per-60. He’s also generating high danger chances at five-on-five at a top 10 rate (ninth), and at a higher pace than the likes of Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm. All in all, Dube has been one of Calgary’s most productive players since joining up.

Yes, the Flames are getting healthier, which means keeping Dube becomes more difficult. Because he’s not waiver eligible, sending Dube back to Stockton is the “easy” move to make. But I would suggest Dube is an upgrade on most of the other bottom six forwards he’s in competition with.

If Calgary had to risk placing Tobias Rieder, Zac Rinaldo, or even Mark Jankowski on waivers to keep Dube up, I believe it’s a worthy risk to take. Dube helps this team win now and the NHL is where he belongs.