Putting Dustin Wolf’s monster season in context
By Ryan Pike
4 years agoWay back in June 2019, 18-year-old goaltender Dustin Wolf was selected by the Calgary Flames in the seventh round with the fourth-from-last selection in the NHL Draft. Having sat through the entire two day event, the Everett Silvertips netminder was nearly brought to tears by his selection.
Nine months later, Wolf sits as the top goaltender in all of Canadian major junior hockey.
Through the bulk of the Western Hockey League season, Wolf has performed admirably for the ‘Tips. Here’s a glance at his statistical box-cars:
- 34 wins – tied with Portland’s Joel Hofer (a St. Louis prospect) and just two fewer than Chicoutimi’s Alexis Shank for the most in the CHL
- 9 shutouts – four more than the next-nearest junior goalie in any of the three leagues (Brandon’s Jiri Patera, Prince Albert’s Max Paddock, Guelph’s Nico Daws or Moncton’s Olivier Rodrigue)
- 1.88 goals against average – 0.32 goals below the next-nearest junior goalie in any of the three leagues (Victoria’s Shane Farkas)
- .935 save percentage – .006 above the next-nearest goalie (Farkas)
It’s worth noting that all of the goalies with numbers that approach Wolf’s – Hofer, Patera, Paddock, Daws, Rodrigue and Farkas – are at least a year older than he is. (Well, Hofer is nine months older, but we’ll round up.) Simply put, Wolf is incredibly good relative to his league, age group and all junior-aged goalies playing in Canada. To put it bluntly: he’s putting up Carter Hart junior numbers.
How do Wolf’s box-car stats compare to other Flames goaltending prospects in recent years? Well, here’s a comparison to his counterparts in the Lockout Era (2005 to present).
[Stats via HockeyDB.]
| Dustin Wolf | Other Flames Prospects | |
| Wins | 34 (in 46 games; 73.9%) | Matt Keetley, 42 (2005-06, WHL) (67.7%) Keetley, 42 (2006-07, WHL) (76.4%) Laurent Brossoit, 42 (2011-12, WHL) (68.9%) |
| Shutouts | 9 (in 46 games; 19.6%) | Leland Irving, 11 (2006-07, WHL) (22.9%) |
| Goals Against Average | .935 | Jon Gillies, .931 (2012-13, NCAA) Gillies, .931 (2013-14, NCAA) Gillies, .930 (2014-15, NCAA) Irving, .929 (2006-07, WHL) Tyler Parsons, .925 (2016-17, OHL) |
| Save Percentage | 1.88 | Irving, 1.86 (2006-07, WHL) Keetley, 2.09 (2005-06, WHL) Keetley, 2.19 (2006-07, WHL) |
It’s worth noting that Jon Gillies played for the notoriously defensive-minded Providence College Friars and benefited from a system that minimized great scoring chances. That said, he had to make some great saves and he back-stopped the Friars to an NCAA Championship win in 2015 – he was named tournament MVP. He’s been beset by injuries since then as a pro, but he was a superb college goalie.
The rest of the leaderboard is a bit dodgy as far as NHL prospects go. The best NHL goaltender of this bunch – current Winnipeg Jets backup Laurent Brossoit – had strong but not mind-boggling numbers with the Edmonton Oil Kings. Tristan Jarry was his understudy and has arguably had a better pro career, but both came from a rock-solid program. Keetley was a superb junior goalie, but failed to put it all together as a pro. The same issues felled Irving, and seem to be halting Parsons’ progress.
In other words? Wolf is having an amazing season, both relative to goaltending prospects in recent Flames history and relative to other junior goalies in Canada. History has shown that junior success is by no means any indicator of pro success – and history suggests a key to future success would be not being a Flames draft pick – but dominance at the WHL level is undoubtedly a good sign regarding Wolf’s current performance.
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