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FGD 51: A finale with the Jets (7:30pm MT, SN)

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Photo credit:Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Pike
1 year ago
For the final time in 2020-21, the Calgary Flames (22-25-3, 47 points) will clash with the Winnipeg Jets (27-21-3, 57 points). The Jets are likely playoff bound, while the Flames need a win tonight to remain mathematically alive in the clash for a North Division playoff spot. It’s high stakes at the Saddledome!
The action starts at 7:30 p.m. MT on Sportsnet’s national feed and Sportsnet 960 The Fan!
For a view from the other side, check out our frenemies over at JetsNation!

The Flames

Projected lines, via Daily Faceoff:
Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk
Mangiapane – Monahan – Ritchie
Lucic – Backlund – Dube
Nordstrom – Ryan – Robinson
Giordano – Tanev
Nesterov – Andersson
Valimaki – Stone
Jacob Markstrom starts for the Flames, backed up by Louis Domingue. The active extras for the Flames are Oliver Kylington and Byron Froese. The taxi squad is Artyom Zagidulin, Connor Mackey, Dominik Simon, Zac Rinaldo and Glenn Gawdin.
The Flames have played pretty well of late, generally going toe-to-toe with every team and not allowing too much in the way of high-quality scoring chances against. If they were playing this way with 50 games to go, it’d be exciting. Unfortunately, the clock has basically run out on their ability to ramp things up and catch their opposition.

The Jets

Projected lines, via Daily Faceoff:
Connor – Scheifele – Wheeler
Stastny – Dubois – Perreault
Copp – Lowry – Appleton
Harkins – Thompson – Lewis
Morrissey – Pionk
Forbort – Poolman
Heinola – DeMelo
Connor Hellebuyck starts for the Jets, backed up by Laurent Brossoit. Their active extras are Logan Stanley, Sami Niku and Jordie Benn. Their taxi squad is Eric Comrie, Marko Dano, Kristian Vesalainen and Dominic Toninato.
The Jets have had injury and consistent problems lately, and have recently been caught by Montreal. But they can still clinch a playoff spot with a win of any kind tonight.

The numbers

CalgaryWinnipeg
Wins2227
Points (%)47 (.470)57 (.559)
Adjusted Corsi For52.3%48.3%
Expected Goals52.8%46.0%
Power Play19.5%24.0%
Penalty Kill80.4%79.6%

Playoff hopes and dreams

The Flames’ tragic number is 1.5. Any combination of 1.5 Calgary losses and Montreal wins (and Calgary losses and Winnipeg wins) eliminates the Flames from playoff contention. Their magic number is 10.5. Any combination of 10.5 Flames wins and Montreal losses (or Flames wins and Winnipeg losses) clinch the Flames a playoff spot. (Overtime/shootout losses for either team subtracts 0.5 from either number.)
Long story short: wins by Montreal and Winnipeg tonight cook the Flames’ proverbial goose.

Unfit to play report

The Flames are without Noah Hanifin and Josh Leivo.
The Jets are without Bryan Little, Nathan Beaulieu and Nikolaj Ehlers.

When last we met

The Flames have won three of their first eight games with the Jets, capturing seven of a possible 16 points in the process. (One of their five losses was in overtime.)

Know thy enemy

Your recommended Twitter follows for tonight’s contest:

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