Flames 2013-14 Adjusted Possession Rates

 

 

As we cross-over the quarter mark of the season, it’s time to look back at how each Flames player has done possession-wise. If you recall, at the end of last season, Kent wrote an article that provided adjusted final Corsi numbers to give a depiction of how good each Flames player was at driving the play, controlling for various circumstances.

The adjusted corsi equation was developed by Oilers fan/blogger Michael Parkatti. The equation took into account quality of opponents, quality of teammates and zone starts (i.e., where the player tends to start his shift). This makes it easier to compare players on the same club across various lines and roles.

Parkatti’s equation looks like this: Expected Raw Corsi = -11.91 + QualDiff*1.00+OffZS%*.24

So, a player with QualDiff of 0, and a zone start rate of 50% would have an expected Raw Corsi of: Expected raw Corsi = -11.91 + 0 * 1.00 + 50 * 0.24 = -0.15

The formula suggests that Corsi will increase by 1 for every unit increase in his quality of teammates and every unit decrease in his quality of competition. In addition, his equation suggests Corsi will increase by one about every 4 more percentage points in his zone start. A player with a zero QualDiff and starting every faceoff in the defensive end is expected to have a -11.91 Corsi, reflected in the intercept above.

Let’s have a look how each player has looked so far.

The first three columns (after games played) have to do with each forward’s quality of competition and linemates as well as the “difference” between them (Qualdif). Next, we have each player’s zone start ratio and his resultant expected corsi based on Michael Parkatti’s equation. Corsi on is their actual corsi/60 minutes. When you take corsi on (i.e., actual corsi) and substract their expected corsi you get the final adjusted corsi numbers. The tables are sorted by adjusted corsi. All the numbers are from www.behindthenet.ca. Many thanks to them and their great work.

Looking at the numbers, there’s not too many surprises. You’ve got essentially three groups: the ones driving the boat (Glencross, Cammalleri, Stajan, Backlund and Galiardi), the guys that are struggling to keep their heads above water (Jones, Bouma, Hudler, Stempniak, Colborne, Monahan Baertschi) and the ones dropping the anchor through the middle of the boat and sinking it (Street, Jackman and McGrattan).

There are a few players that surprised me where they ended up. Baertschi, for me, was the biggest one. While he has had his troubles in all three zones and, at points, he’s looked a little weak on the puck, I felt that he has been driving the play the other way with great regularity. His possession rate has actually steadily imrpoved over the course of the season, so maybe this will change by the end of the year.

Also, Galiardi being a top tier guy in terms of possession also surprised me a little. He’s had a few flashes of brilliance where he’s brought the puck all the way up the ice and used his speed to get around guys wide and create a few chances. However, based on his point totals and how his ice time has been dwindling, I thought he’d come out as a middling possession guy so that was a pleasant surprise.

Looking at the D, clearly there are two guys that stand out like an elephant at a cocktail party: Gio and Brodie. They can get the puck up the ice and keep it in the o-zone efficiently. Interestingly, Gio has improved dramatically from the end of last year to today. Last year his adjusted Corsi was 1.77 and now it’s at 7.89. Gio had one of his worse years as a Flame last year and he appears to have rebounded nicely this year to get back to the player that he is capable of being. So to that I say Gio – get well, get well soon, we want you to get well!

Beyond those two possession dynamos, you have the guys that keep their heads above water in Russell, Butler and Wideman followed by Smith in a not terrible range. Then you have Smid and O’Brien getting killed on possession every night. In short, we can be legitimately terrified with every shift they serve together. So really no surprises on D, although Butler was terrible by this measure last year and the start of this season so it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up.

There are not too many surprises in the bunch, except for maybe Baertschi and Galiardi. Gio and Brodie are two good possession D-men. When healthy, they serve as Calgary’s top D pair and likely had a lot to do with Calgary’s early success. While Backlund has fallen back slightly from his possession numbers from last year, he’s still doing what he does … driving play the good way. If anything it’s more evidence that he’s a valuable commodity to this team and if the Flames were to trade him it would be a pretty horrible decision. It’s been stated before but he’s a cheap two-way centre that continually has great possession numbers. The Flames likely wouldn’t get anything more than a 3rd rounder for him on the market. He’s a no-brainer to keep for the rebuild in my mind and many others.