Flames free agent targets: Derek Ryan

The Calgary Flames didn’t get very much offense out of their bottom six during the 2018-19 season. Later in the year, when the lineup was hampered by injuries, things got even worse. So it’s probably not overly surprising to learn that the Flames are looking into some free agent options to upgrade their bottom six group.

One option that is a familiar face to new Flames head coach Bill Peters is center Derek Ryan. Could Ryan be a fit for what the Flames need?

A product of Spokane, Washington – a city so close to Calgary that we get their local TV channels – Ryan played his junior hockey with his hometown Chiefs in the Western Hockey League. Despite performing well, scoring between 46 and 61 points during his three seasons, Ryan didn’t generate much NHL interest.

Wanting to keep playing, he took advantage of the WHL’s scholarship program and attended the University of Alberta for four years and played for the Golden Bears. He scored a ton and was an All-Star in the CIS, but still didn’t generate a ton of North American interest. Still wanting to keep playing, he headed overseas where he spent three years in Austria’s EBEL (where he was named their MVP) and then another season in Sweden’s SHL (where he was named their MVP).

He finally signed in the NHL as a 28-year-old, joining the Carolina Hurricanes organization.

Ryan captained the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers for his first North American pro season, getting a brief call-up where he dressed in six games for the Hurricanes. He re-signed and spent the majority of his second season with the Hurricanes, and on his third one-year deal he spent almost the entire season in the NHL. Based on two almost-full NHL campaigns he’s likely a solid 35-to-40 point producer depending on deployment and role.

For the Hurricanes he was an effective bottom six center. He was one of Carolina’s better possession players last season – 57.05% Corsi For, +3.29% Corsi Rel – but admittedly he was heavily shielded by Peters, with roughly 60.4% of his shifts beginning in the offensive zone. He was a strong faceoff performer, winning 56.3% of his draws, which seems to suggest that perhaps he’d perform almost as well possession-wise with less sheltering.

Ryan’s availability, fit and role are all tied in with his potential cap hit, so let’s tackle all of that together. After re-signing twice with Carolina on one-year deals, it’s probably not a coincidence that Ryan’s headed to free agency as his junior coach moves to Calgary – it’d be incredibly naive to suggest that there’s no connection here. But at the same time, The Athletic‘s Craig Custance also noted that Carolina “didn’t have the appetite to pay market price to keep him.” If he signs here, it won’t be to play fourth line center. His cap hit will likely be somewhere around $2 million and that would probably place him as a third line center behind Monahan and Backlund, jostling with Mark Jankowski for ice time.

There’s not much wrong with that concept, though. Jankowski’s still super young and having a more veteran player who’s a bit more established as a scorer to push him makes a lot of sense – Peters and Brad Treliving probably would like Jankowski to grow and earn his ice time, and a lack of bottom six competition is one of the big reasons the Flames missed the playoffs.

Ryan’s availability and Nick Shore not being qualified may be related. As good as Shore was in limited minutes last season during his brief Flames stint, Ryan is better offensively and at least a lateral move possession-wise. He’s six years older but also has 16 more points in 83 fewer games, as well as has the ability to play up the rotation. He’s more expensive, but arguably a better investment.

As with most deals, though, the devil will be in the details. The Athletic estimates Ryan to be in the $1-to-$2 million pay category and Matt Cane’s forecast projects him as a $2.4 million AAV. Ryan’s a productive bottom six body, but he’s also 31. He’s played a lot of hockey all around the world – granted, in leagues like the CIS, EBEL and SHL with less travel – and sooner or later Father Time catches up to everybody. Mark Giordano’s a similar late-blooming player, but he’s also a fitness freak and a huge outlier for how athletes normally age. Ryan would be a smart signing at the right price, but any deal over two years in length would carry some risks.

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