Flames in seven games: 2-4-1 in fourth segment
By Ryan Pike
4 years agoThe Calgary Flames have completed 28 games of the 2019-20 regular season calendar. They’re 34.1% of the way through their season, and so we continue the fine tradition of examining their performances in bite-sized seven game morsels. In the first seven games of this season, they went 3-3-1. In their second seven games, they went 3-3-1. In their third seven games, they went 4-2-1, a slight improvement. In their fourth segment of seven games, they went 2-4-1.
Underlying numbers via Natural Stat Trick.
Game by game
(Percentage stats in this table are 5v5.)
| Date | Opponent | Result | CF% | SC% | HDSC% | PP | PK |
| Nov. 16 | Coyotes (@) | 3-0 L | 60.9 | 67.6 | 58.3 | 0-for-3 | 4-for-4 |
| Nov. 17 | Golden Knights (@) | 6-0 L | 50.4 | 37.9 | 39.1 | 0-for-2 | 2-for-3 |
| Nov. 19 | Avalanche (vs) | 3-2 L | 55.5 | 59.6 | 46.2 | 0-for-2 | 2-for-2 |
| Nov. 21 | Blues (@) | 5-0 L | 56.0 | 49.0 | 37.5 | 0-for-4 | 1-for-2 |
| Nov. 23 | Flyers (@) | 3-2 SOW | 42.1 | 40.0 | 31.6 | 0-for-3 | 3-for-3 |
| Nov. 25 | Penguins (@) | 3-2 OTL | 53.1 | 44.7 | 46.2 | 1-for-2 | 2-for-3 |
| Nov. 27 | Sabres (@) | 3-2 OTW | 45.3 | 44.7 | 52.6 | 0-for-2 | 2-for-2 |
The Flames played one game at home (0-1-0) and six on the road (2-3-1). For those who like to keep track, the Flames had zero wins and four losses in regulation, and went to overtime three times, winning twice.
The Flames out-chanced the opposition twice and generated more higher chances than the opposition twice. They scored one power play goal and allowed three.
Team stats
The Flames have a 12-12-4 record through their first 28 games, trending distinctly downward in these past seven games. As we’ve said repeatedly in these seven game breakdowns, the Flames still haven’t had a definitively great game to hang their hat on. They’ve continued to chase – they lead the NHL in time spent trailing – and made life difficult on themselves in fairly preventable ways.
- Their goals for per game is 2.39, down from 2.76. They’re 30th overall in the NHL and 15th in the Western Conference. (Only Detroit has scored fewer goals on a per-game basis.)
- Their goals against per game is 3.04, up from 2.90. They’re 19th in the NHL, and 11th in the Western Conference.
- Their goal differential is -16, down from -1. They’re 28th in the NHL, and 14th in the Western Conference.
- Their power play is at 15.9%, down from 18.6%. They’re 23rd in the NHL, and 10th in the Western Conference.
- Their penalty kill is at 85.3%, down from 85.5%. It’s fourth in the NHL and third in the Western Conference.
- They’ve taken 9.4 minutes of penalties per game, down from 9.8. That’s ninth-most in the NHL, and fourth-most in the Western Conference.
- Their 5v5 CF/60 is 59.30, up from 58.89. It’s the sixth highest in the NHL, and third among Western Conference teams.
- Their 5v5 CA/60 is 55.22, up from 54.88. It’s the 15th lowest in the NHL, and fifth lowest among Western Conference teams.
- Their 5v5 CF is 51.8%, up from 51.7%. It’s the 8th highest in the NHL, and fourth among Western Conference teams.
- Their 5v5 shooting percentage is 5.93%, down from 7.01%. It’s 31st in the NHL.
- Their 5v5 save percentage is 91.18%, down from 91.46%. It’s 24th in the NHL.
- Their PDO is 0.971, down from 0.985. It’s 27th in the NHL.
So, uh, the Flames had a rough seven games. They won twice. They were a mediocre defensive team and a wildly unlucky team in general, as you can see from their percentages on both sides of the puck cratering pretty spectacularly.
The story remains the same as it has been all season. They’re a decent possession team, a middling defensive team, but their puck luck is horrific. Their power play continues to slide, while their penalty kill remains among the best in the NHL.
In short: the two things that are working for them are the two things that have been working for them all season – David Rittich and their penalty kill. Everything else in their game has shown fairly pronounced ups and downs.
Player stats
First, the forwards (all situations, ordered by ice time).
Game scores: 0.950 and above is considered great; 0.450-0.950 good; 0.150-0.450 fine; -0.150-0.150 bad; under -0.150 awful.
| Player | TOI | Goals | Points | P/60 | SH% | CF% | GF% | OZFO% | Game score |
| Lindholm | 549:06 | 12 | 19 | 2.08 | 17.4 | 52.1 | 49.3 | 55.7 | 0.672 |
| Gaudreau | 548:52 | 5 | 20 | 2.19 | 6.6 | 58.0 | 49.2 | 68.3 | 0.716 |
| Monahan | 521:06 | 6 | 20 | 2.30 | 9.0 | 56.5 | 47.6 | 67.1 | 0.622 |
| Backlund | 520:10 | 3 | 10 | 1.15 | 5.0 | 51.3 | 48.8 | 53.3 | 0.418 |
| Tkachuk | 516:19 | 11 | 23 | 2.67 | 143 | 58.8 | 58.3 | 65.2 | 0.904 |
| Ryan | 400:37 | 4 | 11 | 1.65 | 8.7 | 46.9 | 51.7 | 40.6 | 0.414 |
| Mangiapane | 324:07 | 5 | 9 | 1.67 | 15.6 | 53.0 | 58.3 | 49.3 | 0.472 |
| Lucic | 323:49 | 0 | 4 | 0.74 | 0.0 | 57.6 | 40.0 | 54.8 | 0.194 |
| Frolik | 322:34 | 1 | 4 | 0.74 | 3.6 | 46.9 | 21.7 | 46.4 | 0.138 |
| Bennett | 263:53 | 3 | 5 | 1.14 | 8.1 | 55.1 | 62.5 | 57.5 | 0.328 |
| Jankowski | 263:49 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 43.3 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 0.071 |
| Rieder | 212:03 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 4.2 | 44.7 | 8.3 | 38.3 | 0.162 |
| Quine | 88:15 | 1 | 1 | 0.68 | 8.3 | 51.6 | 33.3 | 49.1 | 0.179 |
| Czarnik | 81:03 | 2 | 3 | 2.21 | 22.2 | 54.6 | 75.0 | 58.9 | 0.394 |
| Dube | 75:16 | 1 | 1 | 0.80 | 12.5 | 54.4 | 40.0 | 41.1 | 0.332 |
| Rinaldo | 23:42 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 52.8 | 0.0 | 36.4 | -0.092 |
First of all: everybody’s game scores and underlying numbers dipped a little bit during a span where the Flames got shut out three times and scored just nine goals.
The team remains top-heavy, propped up by the usual suspects: Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and Lindholm. Between his two-way play and his ability to draw penalties and score sweet goals, Tkachuk is emerging as the best forward on the team. Mangiapane, Ryan and Backlund have defined themselves as a pretty decent secondary group.
But beyond those seven forwards, things get lean pretty quick. The Flames need more out of their bottom six forwards.
Mark Jankowski has still not scored a goal. Or been on the ice for one. He’s been out-scored 17-0. Tobias Rieder has been out-scored 11-1, which is also super.
The Flames’ most common line combinations at 5v5 have been:
| Gaudreau | Monahan | Lindholm |
| Tkachuk | Backlund | Mangiapane |
| Tkachuk | Backlund | Frolik |
For an indication of just how much bottom six variation there has been this season, the line of Dube, Ryan and Lucic is the fourth-most used forward line this season. Dube’s only been up for six games.
There’s a pretty big ice time disparity from the first trio to every other line combination.
Now, the defence (all situations, ordered by ice time):
| Player | TOI | Goals | Points | P/60 | SH% | CF% | GF% | OZFO% | Game score |
| Giordano | 688:04 | 4 | 14 | 1.22 | 5.3 | 50.7 | 48.0 | 50.5 | 0.686 |
| Hanifin | 607:55 | 3 | 7 | 0.69 | 5.7 | 49.5 | 40.0 | 47.1 | 0.367 |
| Andersson | 552:33 | 2 | 8 | 0.87 | 3.6 | 56.1 | 47.6 | 60.2 | 0.488 |
| Hamonic | 478:27 | 1 | 4 | 0.50 | 3.0 | 42.5 | 32.6 | 34.9 | 0.327 |
| Brodie | 448:09 | 1 | 10 | 1.34 | 4.4 | 51.3 | 50.0 | 48.3 | 0.458 |
| Kylington | 277:22 | 0 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.0 | 50.8 | 35.3 | 59.5 | 0.170 |
| Stone | 215:36 | 1 | 2 | 0.56 | 5.6 | 41.7 | 28.6 | 44.9 | 0.068 |
| Davidson | 40:37 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 56.5 | 20.0 | 55.6 | 0.367 |
Once again, 36-year-old Giordano has played 80 more minutes than the next-nearest player and 130 more minutes than the third-most player. Only Rittich has played more than Giordano. That’s crazy, and utilizing a bit of load management may be a good idea to keep him young and/or fresh for the last third of the regular season.
Giordano remains the team’s best defender, but Andersson is emerging as their second-best. (And yes, it’s likely no coincidence that the two guys that regularly play with Giordano have the next-best game scores among blueliners.)
And finally, goalies (all situations):
| Player | TOI | SV% | ldSV% | mdSV% | hdSV% | Game score |
| Rittich | 1327:22 | .913 | .973 | .887 | .824 | 0.832 |
| Talbot | 371:58 | .893 | .963 | .895 | .732 | 0.214 |
Rittich plays a ton, the most in the NHL. He’s been very good, holding the Flames in games despite their porous defensive zone play. Talbot’s underlyings are okay-ish, but also deflated a bit by a pretty small sample size.
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