Flames in seven games: 2-4-1 in third segment
By Ryan Pike
3 years agoThe Calgary Flames have completed 21 games of their 56 game 2020-21 regular season schedule. They’re 3/8ths through their schedule. The past seven games have been fairly rough, with the club winning just twice.
Underlying numbers via Natural Stat Trick.
Game by game
(Percentage stats in this table are 5v5.)
| Date | Opponent | Result | CF% | SC% | HDSC% | xGF% | PP | PK |
| Feb. 15 | Canucks (@) | 4-3 W | 49.4 | 53.5 | 58.8 | 50.7 | 1-for-4 | 4-for-6 |
| Feb. 17 | Canucks (vs) | 5-1 L | 59.2 | 52.1 | 46.2 | 51.3 | 0-for-2 | 1-for-1 |
| Feb. 19 | Oilers (@) | 2-1 L | 50.7 | 44.1 | 50.0 | 43.5 | 0-for-3 | 2-for-2 |
| Feb. 20 | Oilers (vs) | 7-1 L | 62.3 | 66.0 | 63.0 | 68.4 | 1-for-5 | 2-for-5 |
| Feb. 22 | Leafs (@) | 3-0 W | 39.7 | 40.6 | 27.3 | 31.0 | 2-for-5 | 7-for-7 |
| Feb. 24 | Leafs (@) | 2-1 OTL | 40.7 | 43.2 | 33.3 | 37.7 | 0-for-2 | 4-for-4 |
| Feb. 25 | Senators (@) | 6-1 L | 52.2 | 41.9 | 31.3 | 46.9 | 0-for-0 | 0-for-0 |
| This 7 | — | 2-4-1 | 50.9 | 49.3 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 4/21 | 20/25 |
| Last 7 | — | 4-3-0 | 49.5 | 53.4 | 60.7 | 55.8 | 2/21 | 17/21 |
That’s three close games, one decisive win, and three blow-outs.
The positives: their Corsi was better… but it’s skewed by a few one-sided losses having distinct score effects. The power play scored twice as many goals as they did in the prior segment.
The negatives: almost literally everything else.
It’s been a rough seven games.
Team stats
Here’s how the Flames compare within the (Scotia NHL) North Division through 21 games:
- Their goals for per game is 2.43, down from 2.79. They’re seventh in the division.
- Their goals against per game is 2.95, up from 2.64. They’re fourth in the division.
- Their goal differential is -10, down from +3. They’re fifth in the division.
- Their power play is at 21.1%, down from 21.8%. They’re fourth in the division.
- Their penalty kill is at 80.6%, down from 80.9%. They’re second in the division.
- They’ve taken 8.1 penalty minutes per game, up from 7.9. They’re seventh in the division.
- Their 5v5 xGF/60 is 2.28, down from 2.36. They’re sixth in the division.
- Their 5v5 xGF/60 is 2.14, up from 2.07. They’re second in the division.
- Their 5v5 xGF is 51.6%, down from 53.3% They’re second in the division.
- Their 5v5 shooting percentage is 7.05%, down from 8.33%. They’re seventh in the division.
- Their 5v5 save percentage is 92.56%, down from 94.12%. They’re third in the division.
- Their PDO is 0.996, down from 1.025. They’re fifth in the division.
So, uh, the things that went up – goals against, penalty minutes, expected goals against, expected goals percentage – are bad things. The things that went down – goals for, goal differential, both special teams, expected goals for, shooting and save percentages and PDO – are good things.
Player stats
First, the forwards (all situations, ordered by ice time). Last segment’s values in brackets.
Game scores: Positive values indicate positive impact, negative values reflect negative impact.
| Player | TOI | G | P | P/60 | SH% | xGF% | GF% | OZS% | Game score |
| Lindholm | 153:16 (147:24) | 1 (2) | 4 (6) | 1.6 (2.4) | 6.7 (10.5) | 56.9 (45.9) | 57.1 (58.3) | 49.6 (45.5) | 0.580 (0.999) |
| Mangiapane | 142:48 (115:07) | 3 (4) | 3 (6) | 1.3 (3.1) | 21.4 (44.4) | 48.0 (59.7) | 33.3 (70.0) | 52.3 (37.7) | 0.184 (1.556) |
| Tkachuk | 138:46 (137:04) | 1 (2) | 4 (5) | 1.7 (2.2) | 3.5 (11.8) | 58.1 (48.2) | 53.9 (58.3) | 61.7 (53.9) | 0.294 (0.913) |
| Gaudreau | 136:58 (132:52) | 1 (3) | 3 (6) | 1.3 (2.7) | 5.9 (27.3) | 62.1 (56.7) | 60.0 (57.1) | 79.1 (69.7) | 0.586 (1.170) |
| Backlund | 106:54 (112:51) | 0 (1) | 0 (4) | 0.0 (2.1) | 0.0 (4.8) | 48.9 (56.3) | 14.3 (46.7) | 47.5 (38.8) | -0.088 (1.190) |
| Monahan | 95:40 (127:22) | 1 (0) | 3 (4) | 1.9 (1.9) | 11.1 (0.0) | 60.2 (54.8) | 44.4 (53.9) | 79.4 (69.1) | 0.430 (0.971) |
| Dube | 95:24 (110:25) | 1 (1) | 2 (3) | 1.3 (1.6) | 11.1 (10.0) | 52.0 (41.5) | 27.3 (44.4) | 59.2 (48.3) | -0.094 (0.277) |
| Lucic | 94:57 (90:45) | 2 (1) | 2 (3) | 1.3 (2.0) | 16.7 (12.5) | 50.7 (68.7) | 25.0 (66.7) | 58.3 (56.3) | -0.183 (0.920) |
| Bennett | 90:45 (81:34) | 1 (2) | 1 (2) | 0.7 (1.5) | 6.7 (16.7) | 53.8 (49.6) | 30.0 (50.0) | 69.6 (65.2) | 0.117 (0.513) |
| Nordstrom | 63:15 (75:25) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 29.4 (24.6) | 0.0 (20.0) | 31.9 (23.9) | -0.079 (0.080) |
| Leivo | 32:40 (67:25) | 0 (0) | 0 (1) | 0.0 (0.9) | 0.0 (0.0) | 51.3 (56.4) | 100 (33.3) | 73.9 (37.8) | 0.078 (0.362) |
| Gawdin | 23:18 (-) | 0 (-) | 0 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 33.4 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 92.9 (-) | -0.400 (-) |
| Robinson | 20:00 (-) | 0 (-) | 0 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 45.0 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 72.7 (-) | -0.150 (-) |
| Simon | 19:46 (10:03) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 53.8 (51.6) | 0.0 (60.0) | 75.0 (64.5) | -0.270 (-0.300) |
| Froese | 19:22 (30:36) | 0 (1) | 0 (1) | 0.0 (2.0) | 0.0 (50.0) | 13.8 (11.1) | 0.0 (33.3) | 11.1 (20.0) | -0.325 (0.473) |
| Ritchie | 15:28 (-) | 0 (-) | 0 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 46.8 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 75.0 (-) | -0.665 (-) |
| Ryan | – (22:37) | – (0) | – (0) | – (0.0) | – (0.0) | – (41.4) | – (33.3) | – (30.0) | – (0.140) |
| Rinaldo | – (2:04) | – (0) | – (0) | – (0.0) | – (0.0) | – (0.0) | – (n/a) | – (n/a) | – (0.050) |
The five most common Flames forward lines were (in descending order):
- Tkachuk – Lindholm – Mangiapane
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett
- Tkachuk – Backlund – Mangiapane
- Lucic – Bennett – Dube
- Lucic – Backlund – Dube
Players who were improved, as measured by average game score: Simon. That’s it. Players that were okay: Lindholm, Gaudreau and Monahan. Everybody else was, well, not.
Some of this was the percentages. seven forwards played 90+ minutes. Of them, four had shooting percentages above 10%: Mangiapane, Monahan, Dube and Lucic. Everybody else is just not burying their chances, as evidenced by the team-wide shooting percentage (all situations) being 5.6%. Overall PDO is a league-worst 0.942 in the last seven games, so they’re getting hammered by the percentages.
But they’re also not playing well collectively. Their underlyings are generally blah, and so they’re both mediocre at 5v5 and they’re really unlucky right now. And their fourth line group is lousy, even when they change it up.
Now, the defence (all situations, ordered by ice time):
| Player | TOI | G | P | P/60 | SH% | xGF% | GF% | OZFO% | Game score |
| Tanev | 157:16 (146:37) | 0 (1) | 1 (2) | 0.4 (0.8) | 0.0 (14.3) | 47.3 (49.9) | 12.5 (42.9) | 39.2 (35.6) | 0.404 (0.887) |
| Andersson | 154:43 (148:22) | 1 (0) | 5 (2) | 1.9 (0.8) | 6.7 (0.0) | 49.6 (55.7) | 37.5 (50.0) | 61.5 (55.4) | -0.231 (1.024) |
| Giordano | 153:25 (145:46) | 0 (1) | 3 (4) | 1.2 (1.7) | 0.0 (10.0) | 47.9 (49.4) | 29.4 (58.3) | 43.3 (41.5) | -0.139 (1.380) |
| Hanifin | 138:27 (141:40) | 0 (0) | 0 (1) | 0.0 (0.4) | 0.0 (0.0) | 50.6 (50.7) | 25.0 (54.6) | 59.7 (42.2) | -0.021 (0.687) |
| Valimaki | 112:15 (115:00) | 0 (0) | 1 (4) | 0.5 (2.1) | 0.0 (0.0) | 46.9 (39.7) | 30.0 (46.2) | 61.8 (54.2) | -0.003 (0.450) |
| Nesterov | 49:55 (97:04) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 38.3 (43.8) | 0.0 (33.3) | 69.0 (48.8) | -1.260 (0.305) |
| Mackey | 23:03 (13:55) | 0 (0) | 1 (0) | 2.6 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 46.3 (16.9) | 100 (0.0) | 61.5 (60.0) | 0.425 (-1.780) |
| Kylington | 17:51 (-) | 0 (-) | 0 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 0.0 (-) | 27.8 (-) | n/a (-) | 100 (-) | -0.390 (-) |
The three most common defensive pairings were (in descending order):
- Hanifin & Tanev
- Giordano & Andersson
- Giordano & Valimaki
By expected goals: Valimaki’s been a little better, Hanifin about the same, but the remainder of the regular blueliners have been a little bit worse across the board. If you judge by game score, every regular blueliner is worse than in the previous seven games.
The blueline group is, collectively and individually, fighting it.
And finally, goalies (all situations):
| Player | TOI | SV% | ldSV% | mdSV% | hdSV% | Game score |
| Rittich | 254:46 (58:01) | .924 (.893) | .980 (1.000) | .971 (.800) | .829 (.714) | 0.155 (-1.060) |
| Markstrom | 136:26 (362:30) | .829 (.927) | .929 (.964) | .778 (.962) | .696 (.800) | -2.227 (0.030) |
| Zagidulin | 28:13 (-) | .818 (-) | 1.000 (-) | .750 (-) | .667 (-) | -1.170 (-) |
This was a weird seven games for goalies. Rittich was really good overall, despite getting thumped against Ottawa. Markstrom and Zagidulin were both fairly rough, but both had extenuating circumstances: Markstrom had to deal with a rough defensive team in front of him for his games, while Zagidulin was getting his very first NHL reps in.
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