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FlamesNation player evaluation: Derek Forbort

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Photo credit:Sergei Belski/USA Today Sports
Mike Gould
3 years ago
The Flames traded for two very different defensemen at the 2020 NHL trade deadline. In Erik Gustafsson, they got a power play quarterback who can play both sides and generate a lot of assists. The Flames sacrificed a third-round pick to the Blackhawks in exchange for his services; Chicago wound up selecting defenseman Wyatt Kaiser at pick 81.
Brad Treliving and co. won’t know who the Los Angeles Kings will select with the fourth-round pick they traded for Derek Forbort until the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, whenever it takes place. Here’s what they do know right now: Forbort is strictly a defensive rearguard who looked, at best, okay in his 17 games with the team. In addition, if the Flames want to extend Forbort’s tenure in Calgary, they’ll have to upgrade the pick they send to L.A. from a 2021 fourth to a 2021 third.
The pick factor alone might be enough to dissuade the Flames from extending Forbort. But his defensive play probably isn’t worth breaking the bank over, either. Let’s take a deeper look.

2019-20 season summary

Forbort missed a lot of time this year recovering from a back injury. The below table includes both his statistics from L.A. and Calgary.
(Data courtesy of NaturalStatTrick)
GAMES PLAYEDGOALSASSISTSPOINTSTOI/GP5V5 CF%5V5 CF% RELOZF%PDO
2001117:4949.83-4.6950.50.970
Forbort is a steady defenseman who isn’t particularly quick but who can lay the body and make simple plays with the puck. He can certainly be counted on to kill penalties and break up plays with his good stick.
It’s always a challenge to look at these sorts of players from an analytical perspective, particularly when they miss three-quarters of the season with an unfortunate back injury. The Flames needed a guy who could play a reliable defense-first game when both Mark Giordano and Travis Hamonic went down with ailments of their own in advance of the trade deadline in March and, while Forbort certainly prioritizes defense first in his game, he doesn’t do nearly as good a job of actually playing it as Giordano or even Hamonic.
With the Kings this year, Forbort was used primarily in a bottom-four role after returning from injury, although he still saw some time with his former partner, Drew Doughty. Under Todd McLellan, the Kings are a well-coached team that makes up for its lack of NHL-ready talent by playing a high-volume offensive style that sometimes sacrifices shot quality for quantity. In Forbort’s small sample on the ice this year, however, the Kings did an okay job at generating quality shots from the slot and out-chancing the opposition.
That said, Forbort was hardly alone in that regard and his on-ice metrics paled relative to those of his Kings teammates. He was a non-factor offensively in terms of counting stats and analytics once he got to Calgary, although his expected goals against/60 figure of 2.04 ranked only behind Mark Jankowski in terms of regular skaters. Once again, Forbort’s seven-game sample size is really too small to glean anything earth-shattering from.
Broadly, in his small stretch of games this year, Forbort was decent at preventing high-quality chances from reaching his team’s net, but he didn’t do a ton in the offensive zone and there should be concerns about the volume of shots his teams allowed when he was on the ice. He often looked a little slow and shaky with the puck during the Flames’ post-season series against Winnipeg and Dallas; he was deployed as the Flames’ #5 defender in the playoffs, logging an average of 17:29 per night.

Compared to last season 

Forbort was a pretty big part of the Kings in 2018–19, playing nearly 21 minutes a night alongside Doughty all season long. It was a mediocre pairing from a defensive perspective but it was very poor offensively. Both players were among the Kings’ worst in terms of relative Corsi for/60 and relative expected goals for/60. While Doughty scored 45 points, the majority of them came on the power play and he scored just a single goal all season at even strength while paired with Forbort.
In terms of relative expected goals against/60, both Forbort and Doughty ranked basically dead in the middle on the team at 2.30 apiece. Overall, the Kings were really bad, finishing dead last in the Pacific Division with just 71 points and scoring the fewest goals in the league.
Forbort continued to show in 2018-19 minutes that he has the stamina to play big minutes in the NHL, but he didn’t display a ton of ability to drive play in those minutes. He was basically “that guy” next to Doughty, providing a few hits (105) and a lot of giveaways (78) but taking under a shot per game and scoring just two goals and 14 points in 81 contests.

What about next season?

Forbort is the only defenseman on the UFA market who comes with an additional acquisition cost (other than dollars) to Calgary. Sacrificing a third-round pick to retain Forbort seems unnecessary. He’s an okay presence defensively who could be decent insurance in case of an injury (as was the case when Hamonic and Giordano went down for the Flames), but he doesn’t have the offensive attributes or the consistent results against top lines to be worth big money (or a higher pick).
With lots of solid depth options available in free agency this year, the Flames will probably look elsewhere. Forbort will likely find a two- or three-year deal from someone at a salary between $1.25 and $2 million per season. His signing team would be smart to look at him to defend against middle-six forwards with moderate offensive ability.

2020 Player Evaluations

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