Geoff Ward needs to make adjustments for Game 6
By Mike Wilson
3 years agoIt’s easy, fun, and often futile to play armchair coach and shuffle the lines. You figure yourself a genius for seeing, so obviously, what an NHL head coach doesn’t see. YOU cracked the code. If only you or I were in charge! How things would be better!
Right now, though, the lack of adjustments by the Flames staff does seem puzzling.
Trust the process. Believe in this group.
The process isn’t working right now. Not on the scoreboard, not analytically, not at all. Despite staying the course the Flames find themselves on the brink of unceremonious elimination.
Over five games, not a single unit or individual finds themselves on the positive side of the shot share or the quality shot share.
| 5v5 v Dallas | CF% | xGF% | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau | Sean Monahan | Elias Lindholm | 35.87 | 32.91 |
| Andrew Mangiapane | Mikael Backlund | Tobias Rieder | 41.86 | 32.88 |
| Milan Lucic | Sam Bennett | Dillon Dube | 46.22 | 47.85 |
| Alan Quine | Derek Ryan | Zac Rinaldo | 44.44 | 27.76 |
(Data from Natural Stat Trick)
The top line continues to be a black hole. Maybe the Flames can squeak out a single win if the depth players step up and poor Cam Talbot continues to be superhuman. But, there is zero hope of a series victory if the top line continues to get cratered.
Even the much-hyped third line has found themselves underwater over the five games in round one.
Very little is working. On a nightly basis, every line that jumps over the boards is getting outmatched. Resistance to adjust is futile right now.
And, with all due respect to the shorthanded saviour himself, in the 14,000,605 alternate versions of the future, very few of them have the Flames doing much in the playoffs with Tobias Rieder slotted in the top six.
So, let’s examine how the forward lines could be more effectively rolled out.
Let’s set some parameters:
We’ll be following the familiarity hypothesis. Ward is most likely not to blow the lines into oblivion. As such, each scenario will involve some kind of previously established connective tissue.
The team also needs to have a line that is capable of handling tough matchups and won’t get smoked in the defensive zone (so, essentially any line poor Mikael Backlund is slotted on).
Scenario 1: The Return of Matthew Tkachuk
Officially ruled a game-time decision, the healthy and safe return of number 19 would certainly be a major boost for this beleaguered group of forwards.
It seems logical to slot Tkachuk with the familiar 3M unit but right now is the perfect time to activate the Wonder Twin powers. We’ve seen only glimpses but Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau have shown some nuclear potential. Need offence? Unite the two most elite and dynamic offensive forces.
| Gaudreau | Lindholm | Tkachuk |
| Mangiapane | Backlund | Bennett |
| Lucic | Monahan | Dube |
| Rieder | Ryan | Quine |
To be perfectly honest, relieving Gaudreau of Sean Monahan is probably long overdue. Gaudreau has shown he can be just as effective without his usual trigger man.
(Data from Natural Stat Trick)
While Ward is sticking to the familiarity hypothesis, and a split from Monahan is unlikely, it could be exactly what this group needs to get rolling five on five.
Lindholm between Gaudreau and Tkachuk looked solid in their limited time together this season. Tkachuk gives Gaudreau someone he desperately needs: a mate who can retrieve pucks, play strong along the walls and also thinks the game at an elite level.
Perhaps they could break through the muck and mire that is the Dallas Stars defence.
Our next group is Andrew Mangiapane and Mikael Backlund now lining up with Sam Bennett. The play driving element inherent to Backlund and Mangiapane’s game remains constant while Bennett can provide similar physicality left in Tkachuck’s stead.
Lucic and Dube have been a mainstay this season. The big change here is sliding down Sean Monahan. Concerns of foot speed are mitigated somewhat with Dube playing the rover and offensive zone deployment.
Lastly, Derek Ryan between Tobias Rieder and Alan Quine. Zac Rinaldo cannot be counted on for a regular shift and that becomes an exponential liability in games that require extra time.
Scenario 2: The Tkachuk-less shakeup
| Gaudreau | Lindholm | Bennett |
| Mangiapane | Backlund | Ryan |
| Lucic | Monahan | Dube |
| Rieder | Jankowski | Quine |
We have similar ideas here but without Tkachuk.
Monahan gets dropped to 3C with Lucic and Dube on his flanks. Gaudreau and Lindholm remain constant but with the addition of Sam Bennett. Bennett can keep up just fine and his strong work on the forecheck could lighten the load for Lindholm especially if the top trio continues to favour puck retrieval over creating off the rush.
Backlund and Mangipane continue to do their work but with the addition of Derek Ryan. Ryan and Mangiapane were incredibly effective together (along with Garnett Hathaway) last season. Ryan has the smarts, speed, and defensive awareness to complement the play driving of Backlund and Mangiapane.
Mark Jankowski comes in as 4C to give the Flames a bottom unit that, at the very least, can hold their own in the defensive zone.
Scenario 3: The Brent Sutter High Powered Vitamix special
| Gaudreau | Ryan | Mangiapane |
| Bennett | Backlund | Lindholm |
| Lucic | Monahan | Dube |
| Rieder | Jankowski | Quine |
From the same playbook that brought you the formidable Hagman-Stajan-Iginla trio, why not try something different (with the Geoff Ward familiarity modifier keeping us with a foot in reality)?
In this variation, Backlund, Bennett, and Lindholm are deployed in the defensive zone and against top competition. Last season’s proven synergy between Ryan and Mangipane remains constant but you add the wild card: Gaudreau.
Gaudreau played briefly with Ryan earlier in the year (when Ward went full chaos mode slotting the two alongside Milan Lucic) to a degree of success.
The dual transition threat of Mangiapane and Gaudreau has the potential for some dangerous, quick-strike offence. Mangiapane and Ryan have shown the ability to drive play, keep up with Gaudreau, and, in Mangipane’s case, provide a shooting threat target for Johnny’s silky feeds.
Adapt or die
This late in the game it’s hard to see the staff rolling out sweeping changes in the line formations and game plan. What’s not hard to see, however, is the undeniable truth that adjustments need to be made.
So, sure, trust the process, believe in this group but right now? Right now, it’s adapt or die.
Geoff Ward needs to adapt.
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