Handicapping the Flames expansion draft protections
By Ryan Pike
7 years agoThe month of December is almost complete; 2016 is almost but a memory (and good riddance). Soon it will be 2017, and before too long the Vegas Golden Knights will join the National Hockey League ranks by way of an expansion draft.
We’re just shy of six months out, but let’s take an early look at the options the Calgary Flames have available to them in regards to the expansion draft. In particular, let’s dig into which players the Flames should be protecting.
Excluded Players
We’re not ranking a bunch of players for a few key reasons. Some are players that cannot be claimed by Vegas, some are players that are pending unrestricted free agents that it wouldn’t make sense right now to protect.
The ineligible players are Matthew Tkachuk, Daniel Pribyl, Mark Jankowski, Morgan Klimchuk, Brett Pollock, Andrew Mangiapane, Hunter Smith, Garnet Hathaway, Austin Carroll, Ladislav Smid, Kenney Morrison, Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington, Keegan Kanzig, Jon Gillies, David Rittich, Mason McDonald and Nick Schneider.
The pending UFAs are Brandon Bollig, Kris Versteeg, Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson. Most likely one of Elliott or Johnson will be signed and protected prior to the expansion draft, but for the purposes of this examination they’re not overly important.
The Breakdown
In order of players most likely to be protected to the players least likely to be protected, here’s a quick and dirty rundown of the expansion draft eligible players that aren’t pending UFAs.
| Player | Why Protect? | Why Not? |
| Johnny Gaudreau | Team’s best offensive player Super young, lots of upside Face of the franchise Signed long-term Worst case? Good trade chip | No realistic reasons |
| T.J. Brodie | Young, still has upside Versatile, can play either side of ice Signed long-term to value deal | No realistic reasons |
| Sean Monahan | Strong offensive player Super young, lots of upside Signed long-term Still rounding into form as two-way guy | No realistic reasons |
| Dougie Hamilton | Super young, lots of upside Signed long-term Good at everything | No realistic reasons |
| Sam Bennett | Super young, lots of upside Four seasons of team control until UFA Good at everything | No realistic reasons |
| Mark Giordano | Strong offensive player Wears a letter (valued by teammates) Signed long-term | Value will probably decline from here Contract makes it tough to trade |
| Mikael Backlund | Superb two-way player Makes teammates better Would be more valuable as trade chip | Cap hit not commiserate with offense Arguably not a “core” player |
| Michael Frolik | Superb two-way player Makes teammates better Would be more valuable as trade chip | Cap hit not commiserate with offense Arguably not a “core” player Older than Backlund |
| Micheal Ferland | Young, has upside Good energy player, versatile Inexpensive Would be more valuable as trade chip Two seasons of team control until UFA | Arguably not a “core” player |
| Troy Brouwer | Good complementary player Can play all over lineup Wears a letter (valued by teammates) GM just acquired him | Cap hit not commiserate with offense Arguably not a “core” player Deal value likely to degrade over time |
| Hunter Shinkaruk | Young, has upside Four seasons of team control until UFA | Hasn’t established himself yet |
| Alex Chiasson | Good complementary player Can play all over lineup Inexpensive One season of team control until UFA | Arguably not a “core” player |
| Freddie Hamilton | Inexpensive Can play in bottom six | Arguably not a “core” player On-ice role replaceable internally |
| Lance Bouma | Effective complementary player Can play in bottom six | Cap hit not commiserate with offense Not a “core” player Frequently injured Minimal trade value |
| Matt Stajan | Effective complementary player Can play in bottom six Helps develop young forwards via mentorship | Cap hit not commiserate with offense Not a “core” player On-ice role replaceable internally Minimal trade value |
| Brett Kulak | Young, has upside Four seasons of team control until UFA | Hasn’t established himself yet |
| Jyrki Jokipakka | Fairly young, probably still has upside Two seasons of team control until UFA | What is he? Lacks consistency |
| Linden Vey | Inexpensive Likely still has upside | Lacks consistency Hasn’t established himself yet |
| Tyler Wotherspoon | Young, has upside Three seasons of team control until UFA | Hasn’t established himself yet (despite many chances) Could benefit from fresh start |
| Emile Poirier | Young, has upside Four seasons of team control until UFA | Hasn’t established himself yet (despite many chances) Lacks consistency Could benefit from fresh start |
| Ryan Culkin | Young, has upside Four seasons of team control until UFA | Hasn’t gotten NHL time in yet Bad injury luck (so far) |
| Tom McCollum | Has a contract Can play goalie | Signed only for exposure requirements Organization’s sixth-string goalie |
Some Scenarios
If the Flames add no additional players that require protecting and decide to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie, here’s the most likely group of players to be protected:
- A goalie (Elliott/Johnson)
- Brodie, Hamilton and Giordano
- Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Backlund, Frolik, Ferland and Brouwer
If the Flames add nobody that requires protecting and decide to protect eight skaters and a goalie, it’ll look more like this:
- A goalie (Elliott/Johnson)
- Gaudreau, Brodie, Monahan, Hamilton, Bennett, Giordano, Backlund and Frolik
There’s no obvious benefit to opting to protect eight skaters unless they protect four defensemen, which would only happen if (a) they really, really like Kulak or Jokipakka and don’t want to lose them OR (b) they acquire a top-four defender via trade before the expansion draft. In which case, they’d probably expose Frolik because Backlund is younger, less expensive and a center (and probably has better trade value).
But bear in mind that any trade that nets them a top-four defender could have the added potential acquisition cost of losing one of Frolik, Ferland or Brouwer to Vegas.
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