Historical Context In A Crazy Rumour

Every so often, a hockey rumour comes up that makes you sit in awe and confusion. Even rarer, you get the awesome plot twist of there being merit to the speculation. Usually, when that’s the case, it involves Flames GM Jay Feaster or Avalanche GM Greg Sherman. Occasionally, the two will band together to create the Watch The Throne of puck absurdity, like the Ryan O’Reilly offer sheet that nearly ended in waivers earlier this season. Fast forward to now, and we have another fun "what if" to discuss.

As reported across the hockey world, the Flames want to make a significant impact at this year’s draft. Since they weren’t able to completely tank, trading for the first overall pick is the best way to do it, and Colorado is the team in possession of that top spot. Feaster’s plan of attack? He offered picks 6 (Calgary’s original pick), 22 (from St. Louis) and 28 (from Pittsburgh) for first overall. Sherman and the Avalanche have since rejected it, but it’s lead to some debate. Should they have taken it? After all, three first round picks are nothing to scoff at. Here’s a look at every 1 for 6/22/28 scenario possible since the draft had at least 28 potential selections:

 For the sake of debate, I used MyNHLDraft’s mock draft with alterations to 1 and 6 for this season. Best player available is usually the way to go, but with 1-3 and 6-8 being close together, strengths and weaknesses can be considered. I believe that Calgary is more keen to getting an elite centre, so Mackinnon would be their player of choice. Colorado, who seems to be geared to Jones at #1, would likely look to defence again at 6 and select Darnell Nurse.

I’ve also marked the last five drafts as "To Be Decided" in outcome. These players are still young and developing, and results could still go either way, though I’m all but certain that 2010 and 2008 are going to end up with 1st overall being the better choice. Now, with that considered…

While the rumour was a fun one, it looks like Colorado made the right decision here. This also means there was a method to Feaster’s madness, and that putting all your eggs in one basket is smart, as long as the basket is made of diamond. First overall picks are becoming increasingly harder to mess up. Picking a superstar off of a late first rounder is more lucky than it is good scouting. The types of players you pick in those spots are good to have in your core, but are available via free agency much more often than the average first overall pick (Kovalchuk being the only one to really hit the open market in his prime, and even he eventually returned to New Jersey).

With that said, knowing the luck of these two teams, Colorado will pick up the next Stefan. Calgary will respond by picking the next Forsberg at 6, next Trottier at 22, and next Perry at 28, but all three will struggle out of the gate. You know, until they break out after being traded to re-acquire Jarome Iginla for a farewell tour in three years.