How can the Stockton Heat make the playoffs?

Last week the Heat went a disappointing 1-2-0-1, with their lone win coming against a last place Cleveland squad. They blew a lead and ended up losing in a shootout to Milwaukee when Cody Goloubef gave the puck away in his own zone, which led to a 2-1 shorthanded goal.

Playing Tucson this past weekend, they were shut out 3-0 on Friday and lost 2-1 Saturday by giving up the go-ahead goal with less than four minutes left. They started the week in third place in the Pacific, leading Texas by .005%.

They ended the weekend in fifth place down .024% behind the Stars.

Not all hope is lost though. In this league, you can go from fifth to second in a week; just ask the Ontario Reign, who did that last week.

So what lies ahead for the Heat and how can they make it? This week’s report will focus on what Stockton has left and how they can gain a berth in the Calder Cup playoffs (and more hockey for me and Mrs. Finest).

Last year the Heat qualified for the playoffs in Game 67 (of 68) with a winning percentage of .566. Their record was 34-25-7-2.

As of today, the Heat are at .561. Texas, which currently holds down the fourth and final spot, is at .585. Tucson, on a three-game win streak, leads the division at .640. They are in. Ontario and San Diego are tied for second at .596.

The six Pacific teams only play 68 games while the two Texas teams play 76 games, which is why the Pacific Division is based on percentage and not points.

Stockton has seven of their final 11 games on the road, where they are better (.593 versus .533 at home). In my opinion, and based on a little history (thanks, AHL site), the Heat will need to have a .570 or greater winning percentage to qualify. Hopefully that puts them in third, allowing them to avoid Tucson in the first round.

Without help from anyone else, the Heat need a combination of wins and overtime or shootout losses that total 14 points. That would give Stockton a .574 winning percentage.

Let’s look at who is left and where they stand. This week, the Heat travel to Manitoba to face the Moose on Thursday and Saturday. The Heat dropped both home games in November by identical 4-1 scores. Manitoba leads the Central Division by nine points and is comfortably in the playoffs. Stockton needs at least two points this week.

Stockton will return home for a single game against the last place Cleveland Monsters. The Heat are 2-1-0 against them this year, and should grab another two points. Four points accounted for, another 10 to go.

Last year, at around this same time and situation, the Heat traveled to the state of Texas on a five-game trip. They took nine out of 10 points, which was their turning point in the playoff push. This trip has the good guys playing back-to-back games against San Antonio (1-0-0-1), then heading to Austin to face the Texas Stars (3-2-0). The Heat have had good records against both Texas squads, so asking for four points on this trip is not out of the ordinary.

The final two weeks feature the final five games: a home-and-home with San Jose, a home-and-home with Ontario, and the final game of the season against the Barracuda. Here is the good news/bad news part of the article: the Heat have a 5-3-1-0 record against the Barracuda, who are all but out of it in seventh place. Getting at least four points from them is a must. Now for the bad news: Stockton is 0-5-1 against the Reign. With two games remaining, and against a team ahead in the standings, the Heat will need at least two points.

Thirteen points gets them exactly where they were last year, .566. Somewhere in the last 11 games, the Heat need to gain at least one more point to get to that .574 mark that should get them in.

All of this is based on the Heat controlling their own destiny. If they get some help, they may only need 12 points. But they shouldn’t aim to rely on anyone else to get into the dance.

It is up to these guys to get it done.

 
 

Go Heat Go!