John Tavares to the Flames makes more sense than you might think

Expect the Calgary Flames to make a strong push for John Tavares this summer. With every passing day, it seems less likely Tavares will be back with the New York Islanders next season, which would make him the most coveted potential free agent in years.

While Tavares joining the Flames may seem like a pipe dream for some, it’s actually not as crazy as you might think.

Before we can go much further in building this case it first has to be economically feasible. Tavares will likely command at least $9 million per season, which presents difficulties for teams pressed right to the salary cap’s upper limit. Fortunately for Calgary, they’ll have cap space to work with this summer.

As it stands right now, the Flames have around $11 million in cap room to work with heading into the offseason. That factors in losses of salaries like Matt Stajan, Chris Stewart, and Kris Versteeg, but does not account for RFAs in need of new deals like Brett Kulak and Mark Jankowski. Also not included is a potential rising salary cap; the 2018-19 cap is projected to bump up between $3 and $5 million, giving Calgary even more wiggle room.

There are two potential roads to travel in an attempt to land Tavares. If he decides to go to free agency on July 1, the Flames could throw their hat in the ring with countless other teams and enter a bidding war, much like they did seven years ago with Brad Richards.

The other scenario, though, is a “trade and sign” with the Islanders, which has one main benefit. Acquiring Tavares’s rights and then signing him would allow Calgary exclusive negotiating rights prior to the “courting period” in late June; it’s something they’ve made work in the past with the likes of Jay Bouwmeester and Dennis Wideman. To get Tavares on a a max eight-year deal, he’d first have to sign with New York and then be traded to the Flames, which would likely be far more expensive.

Now, how much a trade with the Islanders would cost is anyone’s guess. What are the negotiating rights to Tavares really worth? Calgary sent pending UFA Jordan Leopold and a 3rd round pick to Florida for Jay Bouwmeester’s rights in 2009, so you’d imagine New York would be looking for quite a bit more than that. Regardless, with a decent group of prospects and some expendable roster players, the Flames would likely be able to make a trade like this happen.

Here’s the million dollar question: why would Tavares sign with Calgary? With only two playoff appearances in nine seasons, the Flames haven’t proven they’re ready for prime time, even with a promising young core. It’s a valid point and could very well hold the team back from landing a player like Tavares, but it’s not the only factor at work. Calgary does have a few things going for them.

First off, Tavares would have the opportunity to reunite with good friend and longtime teammate Travis Hamonic. Seven of Tavares’s nine years in the NHL were spent with Hamonic as a teammate; the only exceptions are his rookie season and most recent year with the Islanders. Playing with a former teammate likely won’t ultimately win the day for Tavares, but you can bet Hamonic will do all he can to sway his old mate.

Tavares wants to win and win for a while; everything suggests that is his primary motivating factor in choosing a new team. As pointed out earlier, the Flames have lots of work to do in proving they’re ready to do just that. However, you don’t have to squint to see how Tavares might look at the Flames and think there’s a chance for that to happen over the next number of years.

The vast majority of Calgary’s most important players are young: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, Sean Monahan, and Dougie Hamilton are all under the age of 25. That’s a pretty solid group of players to build with, especially knowing there’s likely growth to come with all four of those mentioned.

Finally, Tavares would be in a spot to be paired with at least one high end winger, which is always an attractive option. Gaudreau is coming off an 84-point season and has solidified himself as one of the NHL’s elite offensive talents. Tkachuk, on the other hand, is coming off a 24-goal sophomore season and looks like a perennial threat to score 30. You can bet Tavares would love having either one of those guys on his left flank.

Now we get to enter fantasy land for a little bit. While he’d work well on virtually every NHL team, Tavares would fit like a glove in Calgary. There are so many options a guy like him would open up, starting with how the Flames could structure their lineup and deploy players. If we’re playing in the sandbox for a little bit, here’s what I think would work best:

Just think how new coach Bill Peters could use those forward pairs. A line with Tavares and Tkachuk on it would be the team’s true number one line: they wouldn’t be sheltered, nor would their ice time be tailored. Backlund and Frolik could be hammered with defensive starts as the team’s true shutdown line, as we know they can excel. Theoretically, that could then leave Monahan and Gaudreau with favourable matchups and offensive zone starts in the 70% range, which is a scary proposition.

Adding Tavares would also unlock some interesting trade scenarios for Calgary. All of a sudden a deal involving one of Monahan or Backlund isn’t total crazy talk; both would probably net the Flames a heck of a return. Or the team could explore the possibility of trading Mark Jankowski or Sam Bennett, albeit for a much less significant return.

Yes, you can expect Calgary to make a push for Tavares this summer, but they won’t be the only team taking a run at him. Toronto, Montreal, and San Jose are all rumoured to be gearing up for his services, which means the Flames will have plenty of competition. As such, I’m not suggesting Tavares’s arrival in Calgary is imminent or even overly likely.

However, I also don’t think it’s totally out of the question, either. The Flames have the financial wherewithal to make it happen, a decent hockey situation for Tavares to walk into, and a decent personal connection. It’s more than a pipe dream and it’s a story I’ll be watching closely over the next number of weeks.