Moneypuck: RFA’s

 

 

While some of the criteria of Moneypuck applied to UFA’s carries on to Moneypuck applied to RFAs, there are a few key differences.

I did not include RFAs who I believe would have a potential Flames offer matched by their team. I also tried not to include unrealistic targets. I also left out goalies, because the market for RFA goalies that are worth a damn is always sky high.

More of the focus here is looking for teams that might be in cap trouble and thus the Flames would be trying to poach the rights of the RFA before moving on to the possibility of an offer sheet.

There’s also RFAs who have, for one reason or another, have become less valuable to the organization than the organization is willing to pay for them. In some cases, this presents an opportunity to find talent without giving up a large amount of assets.

Obviously it’s a little harder to make determinations about how good a guy’s tough-minutes abilities are with a smaller sample than usual, but we’ll do our best. Surprisingly, these criteria (and the one that states “thou shalt not sign players that suck at hockey”) left us with a small amount of candidates. Keep in mind, because of the nature of offer sheets, it’s highly unlikely that more than two offer sheets per season will be extended.

The Wild are in trouble when it comes to this year’s salary cap: with only 3.5 million in cap space, the Wild need to find Justin Falk, Cal Clutterbuck and Jared Spurgeon new contracts. Erik Haula, Zack Phillips and Matt Dumba will all be pushing for roster spots as well, furthering their cap crunch. Basically, any RFA will be ripe for the taking.

Spurgeon is a top-4 defenseman right now. The Flames need a top-4 defenseman. He’s only 23 and has displayed some offensive upside at every level, most notably this past year where he gathered 15 points in 39 games (~.4PPG). His entire career he’s had a positive Relative Corsi and he plays against 2nd and 3rd lines.

Age: 23 (on 05/10/13)

Expected Compensation: 2nd Round Pick

The Coyotes have a well-documented recent history of penny-pinching, but even so the name of one of their top prospects appearing here might confuse some people. The reason, though, is simple: Phoenix is chin-deep in high quality young defensemen. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Keith Yandle, Zbynek Michalek, Michael Stone, Brandon Gormley and Connor Murphy are all ahead or equal on the depth chart to Rundblad. This leads me to believe they might be a little more willing than usual to part with Rundblad.

Rundblad is going to be a top-4 defenseman in the league and has scored at a high rate in both the SEL and AHL the past two years: last year in the AHL, his NHLE was 35 and his last year in the SEL his NHLE was 58 (as a 20 year old). It’s worth “overpaying” to get Rundblad as well – a contract with an AAV of $2.5 million would only require a 2nd round pick as compensation.

Age: 22 (on 05/10/13)

Expected Compensation: 2nd Round Pick

Vancouver is probably in the worst shape cap-wise in the Western Conference. They only have about 7k per roster opening to spend this summer. Keith Ballard will be bought out, but the Canucks need a 3c and a 4c, as well as a new contract for Chris Tanev. Things are gonna be tight.

Schroeder is likely an NHLer next year, and looks to have top-6 potential. He’s also a centre, which could result in a very good 1-2-3-4 centreman lineup in a couple of years. His point totals might not be where they’re expected to be, but Thomas Drance is still very bullish on him as a player.

Age: 23 (on 05/10/13)

Expected Compensation: 3rd Round Pick

The Lightning may not be in cap trouble at the end of the day due to LTIR exceptions, but right now they have about 500k per player available to spend in free agency. However, that’s without Vladislav Namestnikov, Andrej Sustr, Slater Koekkoek and Brett Connolly on the cap, so things will likely be a little tighter than that.

Pouliot has shown he can outshoot players the past three years by a heavy margin. In those seasons, he’s played 2nd and 3rd liners with one high ZS% season, one mid ZS% season and one low high ZS% season (relative Corsis of 3.9, 10.5 and 8.6 respectively). He’s also scored at a high rate the past three seasons, with a PPG of .45.

Age: 27 (on 05/10/13)

Expected Compensation: 2nd Round Pick

The Capitals aren’t in an awful amount of cap trouble, but with only 5 million in cap space and Karl Alzner in need of a new contract, things could get tighter than is comfortable for George McPhee.

Johansson hasn’t had the most stellar numbers underlying-wise, but most 22-year-olds that play 1st and 2nd line comp don’t have stellar numbers. However, Johansson has scored pretty close to a first-line rate in his NHL career, totaling 95 points in 183 games – that may be due to his playing with Alex Ovechkin, but Ovi has been a sinkhole for the past couple of seasons.

Age: 22 (on 05/10/13)

Expected Compensation: 1st and 3rd Round Picks

This is less Winnipeg having cap troubles and more Burmistrov appearing to be done with the Jets. He hasn’t done much in the way of scoring, but Burmistrov is the Jets’ best underlying player at this point and that is never a bad thing. As well, he’s still insanely young.

Age: 21 (on 05/10/13)

Expected Compensation: 3rd Round Pick

There’s much to be had in the RFA market this year and there’s potential difference makers at every position. The Flames, if they so chose, could likely get at least three of these guys: for me, I think Spurgeon, Schroeder and Burmistrov would all be excellent additions. It’s a little harder to find true Moneypuckers in the RFA market, but these six would be an excellent starting point for Jay Feaster and Co.