The St. Patrick’s Day edition of Prime Monday Night Hockey should be a good one, as the Toronto Maple Leafs will host the Calgary Flames for an important all Canadian match-up.

The Flames will move back into the final Wildcard spot with a victory in any fashion, while the Leafs will be desperate to stabilize after a number of sub-par recent performances. Calgary is 12-13-6 on the road this season, while Toronto has played to a record of 20-13-1 on home ice.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Based on pre-season betting odds, earning a playoff spot would be viewed as a significant over-achievement for the Flames. As fans continue to vent their frustration towards the roster and coaching staff over recent disappointing losses, it’s important to keep that in mind.

As top teams such as the Colorado Avalanche have clicked into high-gear in the final quarter of the season, the Flames seem to be having a hard time elevating their game. Colorado held a 3.19 to 2.12 edge in expected goals in Friday’s matchup, and was quite visibly the better side.

In 10 games since the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Flames hold an expected goal share of just 42.11%, which ranks 31st in the NHL. They have allowed 3.38 xGA/60 in that span, and 28.39 shots against per 60. The one positive surrounding their ugly underlying results recently is that Calgary has played a tougher than average slate of opponents, including a nightmarish six-game road trip.

While I’m not a believer that expected goals data is a catch-all that can cover all of the intricacies surrounding a given team’s game, it has been an effective indicator towards playoff success in recent years. The last 10 Stanley Cup winners are averaging better than seventh place in regular season expected goal share, and three of last year’s four conference finalists finished top-six in xGA/60.

With that in mind, it’s becoming more and more difficult to envision the Flames making any noise if they do steal the final playoff berth.

The play of Calgary’s defensive core continues to look more concerning as the season moves along, as Kevin Bahl and MacKenzie Weegar continue to be the only blue-liners consistently offering better than league average play. The Flames rank 32nd in goals scored per game, and a lack of offensive upside from the back-end has been one key reason why.

It’s typically not a good sign when 1-2 defenders are coming in and out of the lineup on a nightly basis, which has been a consistent theme recently as head coach Ryan Huska tries desperately to compile an effective defensive core. Based on today’s morning skate, it looks as though Daniil Miromanov will come out of the lineup in favour of Brayden Pachal in tonight’s match-up.

Many of the other supposed Stanley Cup contenders have elevated their game recently, while the Leafs are in one of their most unconvincing stretches of the season. Oddsmakers now consider the Leafs the 10th most likely team to win the Stanley Cup at their current price of +1400.

While nobody is ever really going to care what the Leafs do in the regular season, it’s become more apparent that head coach Craig Berube may not be the one to finally lead the team to playoff success. Over the last 10 games the Leafs hold an expected goal share of just 48.52%. Their 3.47 xGA/60 rating in that span is the sixth worst mark in the league, and actually worse than the Flames mark.

While the core pieces remain the same, GM Brad Treliving has altered the rest of the roster quite significantly. Aside from the play of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll in goal, it’s tough to argue Treliving’s changes have made the team better. Treliving didn’t remodel the roster and bring in Berube to win more regular season games though, so it won’t be until after the playoffs that we see more firm opinions authored about this year’s edition of the Leafs.

The Leafs paid a hefty sum at the deadline to bring in Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo, with the hopes that they will help make the team more difficult to play against come the spring, and boost the effectiveness of team’s penalty kill.

Laughton has been held pointless in his first four games with the team, and has been moved further down the lineup for tonight’s matchup. He will center the fourth line alongside Steven Lorentz and Calle Jarnkrok.

Since the trade deadline Toronto holds the worst penalty kill in the league, with a success rate of just 58.3%.

Based on today’s morning skate, the Leafs are going back to their most commonly used top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies. In 412.5 minutes of play they have outscored opponents 26-21, and hold an expected goal share of 60.3%. Those marks are particularly impressive as they are generally deployed versus opposing top units as much as possible.

Joseph Woll is expected to start in goal after serving as backup in both of the last two matchups. He holds a +10.6 GSAx rating and .905 save percentage throughout 34 games played.

Both of these team’s have struggled recently versus a slate of high quality opponents, and will be desperate to offer better play in this critical matchup.

Lead my several of the league’s most talented offensive stars, the Leafs still look to be an offensive powerhouse, but have been quite shaky defensively for a significant sample of play. The Flames struggling defensive core will have their hands full in this difficult match-up, but it could be a good spot for Calgary to look more respectable offensively.

At the current prices I don’t have much conviction towards betting either side. The Leafs are obviously more likely to win this game than not, but laying -189 does not look appealing.

This does look like a good spot to target Knies recording a point at -126. He’s been held pointless in each of the last two match-ups, but he did not play with Marner and Matthews in Saturday’s match up, and the team was stymied by a dominant Florida Panthers in the game previous to that.

Prior to those two games, Knies had put up seven points in the last seven games. As he is set to play alongside Matthews and Marner once again, -126 looks to be a good price to back him getting at least one point.